IS THE DARKEST HOUR JUST BEFORE DAWN?

The Television and Telecommunications industries have been converging for years. Opportunities have emerged amid perceived threats. Add in post-Brexit angst, and fears that traditional television is in decline, and it would be easy to overlook the current golden age of television content. Its an interesting study; and presents a case for positive thinking.

In fact the technology-led evolution of these converging sectors has resulted in a boom on a scale never seen before. The export market around the world for television content is benefiting from an explosion of new platforms and the opportunities they bring, and it doesn’t look like its slowing down any time soon…

“Change“ the verb to: "Become Different" – to exchange one thing for another thing, especially of a similar type; Change as defined by the Cambridge English dictionary.

By a lucky coincidence of birth I was born and grew up near Cambridge and was encouraged to take for granted the fine education that was on offer. That education took many forms beyond school and university and after some years cutting my teeth in business, my good fortune transported me to all corners of the globe to lead, manage and implement change; change for the greater good.

I was no missionary delivering the good word, but when confronted by push-back or negativity, at times it has felt that way.

“Never, never, never, never give up.” – Winston Churchill

In the 52 years since Churchill passed away much has changed, but much has been exchanged for something similar. Churchill’s greatest hours during World War II and his most inspiring speeches reached millions via the wireless, the radio. Today the world sees wireless as a commodity to enable “smart” personal communication devices, revolutionised ten years ago by the launch of the iPhone.

Churchill must have witnessed the excitement of the birth of television and two years after his death, the magic of colour was the latest innovation on television. Today, our expectations have changed as we take high definition images for granted on all of our devices in the same way that we expect electrical power to be available to deliver that magic.

“Brexit is Brexit” – Theresa May 2016

Churchill’s leadership of the British allies during World War II towards V E day in 1945 is seen as a pivotal moment in European history. Later in his dying years, the UK's decision to apply for membership of the European Economic Community was taken by the government of Harold Macmillan; another Conservative. As reported by the BBC; it was not welcomed by French President Charles de Gaulle who saw it as a threat to his goal of using the EEC to amplify France's voice in world affairs. He was also concerned about the UK's close ties with the US. Nearly a decade after Churchill’s death, Britain was accepted into the European Common Market. It was amid widespread dissent led by de Gaulle who questioned Britain’s commitment to European integration.

Nearly 40 years later in 2016, the British democratic process, built on a culture of free speech and fairness for all, proved de Gaulle right when the British people voted in a majority to leave the EU. We may understand both perspectives, but say what you will; Remain or Brexit, democracy has now set the process in motion and heralds all of the opportunities that that brings.

Of course change is terrifying, but as Eckhart Tolle said on the subject of push-back: “Some changes look negative on the surface but you will soon realize that space is being created … for something new to emerge.”

”Art is either plagiarism or revolution” – Paul Gauguin 1848-1903

After a long and successful career as a stockbroker, the 1882 Paris market crash forced Monsieur Paul Gaugin to develop his artistic skills with ultimately revolutionary effect. Throughout history; the creative arts, business and technology often mirror Gauguin’s vision when faced with the need for change.

Almost 150 years later, these are again times of unprecedented opportunity as countries and businesses recalibrate to meet new and exciting opportunities.

Any enterprises addicted to cheap labour will innovate to improve processes and create fairer workplaces.

The comfort of subsidies from Brussels came at the price of control. Now, free of the shackles you can bet that British enterprise will focus on the job at hand and embrace free trade on a global scale not seen for decades.

Another Golden Age…

Britain is one of the world’s largest exporters of contemporary 'art', via what we now describe as the creative industries. Most recently the world has come to love Ed Sheeran's music. His “Castle on the Hill” resonates for me; taking me back to my own formative years in a neighbouring village in the East of England. Along with Adele he is one of Britain’s greatest export successes just like the Beatles, Rolling Stones & Bowie's Ziggy Stardust in the days of Macmillan and de Gaulle.

British creativity and innovation is loved the world over; just like music, exports of television programming have never been greater. In the last few years we have witnessed the second golden age of television. Top creative talent and associated enterprises are drawn to divide their loyalties between La La Land and London as opportunities for glossy high definition television have boomed.

The massive growth in demand has been due, in part, to tremendous and innovative advances in technology, enabling a myriad of new platforms, challenging the status quo of linear television. Amid the disruption, huge evolution is growing the pie for everyone’s benefit.

TV content exports from the UK are now nudging ￡1.5Bn p.a., and only a fraction of sales come from Europe. And if the doomsayers are to be believed, post-Brexit currency fluctuations may have grown this by a further 20% this year. Add in exports of associated technology and equipment and you’re looking at a major contributor to British economic health.?

Britain’s largest export market for television shows is the USA and Australia is second. Other success stories for the UK off the back of new digital platforms include Japan (up 48%) and China (rising at 40% p.a.). The same effect is seen across the Asia Pacific region, Latin America and Russia.

In many markets, an openness to new forms of digital viewing allowing mobile or on-demand streaming are creating huge growth in demand. Downton Abbey and The Night Manager have been recent attractions. Thunderbirds Are Go continues to take us all back to post-war optimism and the Formula One and England's Premier League football keep Britain front and centre.

Disruption leads to Change

Referring back to Gaugin’s dilemma; in times of change, corporations and the people leading them, are frequently called upon to make strategic choices. They must decide whether to copy what everyone else is doing or strategically lead the way towards revolution.??

Sometimes the path to revolution must start with creating a monster.

Over the past five years we have witnessed the push by cashed-up telecommunications providers keen to diversify into broadcasting. Technology has created a wealth of ways for phone companies to buy, create and broadcast content which will add value to customers and retain their business.

The huge demand has tested the infrastructure like never before. Telco’s have been called upon to move into reactive mode, to boost bandwidth to meet increased demand. Thus, another boom has been created, as specialist new technology companies rise up, to compress data and limit increasingly common network outages.

Naturally the broadcasters have fought back and while adding value to our home viewing with an explosion of new technology; we now enjoy 24/7 mobile entertainment, and are enriched and enlightened using virtual reality to enhance and be part of a bespoke viewing experience.

Whether the future lies in VOD, OTT, IPTV, Mobile TV, Catch up TV – it’s all TV.

Reports from the US say that now more people are subscribing to Netflix, than cable pay-TV. Given that many households supplement pay-TV with low cost XVOD this may well be true. “Cord cutting” plays to the human fear of committing to change, leading a move towards so-called “skinny bundles”; we’ll take it all if we can.

Meanwhile back in the UK; TV advertising is said to be weakening. Given that it is the lifeblood of the industry, again people are fearful of change. In fact key TV categories may be weakening and brand safety concerns are impacting the pure play Internet market, but there is still healthy, if slower, growth in the UK advertising sector, says research from GroupM.

With the 16-24 year old audiences they also found that there was a continuing and accelerating loss of the young audience – or at least their escape from TV's measurement domain.

Perhaps to lure those youth-skewed advertisers, Facebook led the social media roar, "we're media companies too"; and to drive the point home they joined forces with Fox to live stream more than a dozen Champions League football matches.

The darkest hour was just before dawn…

It was Churchill who said; the darkest hour is just before dawn.

As regulator Ofcom warns that young people are watching less television you have to wonder if younger audiences actually ever had an appetite to stay at home in front of the TV.

Britain really has never looked better – it is positively glowing; and has become the country which many have always wished it would become. On a recent visit to Henley on Thames, the Royal Regatta was just as I remembered it, with lots of over-refreshed pretty young girls and boys in their boaters and colourful blazers, and some rowing. At Wimbledon the winners change, but there’s still queues for centre court and there's strawberries and clotted cream, when you get there.?

Last time I was a guest there, none of the bright young 16-24 year olds had time to make it home to watch TV – today, in contrast, they carry mobile TV on smartphones always to hand and are obsessed with their mobile devices 16 hours a day – So, with viewers so engaged, the rewards are getting so much bigger for anyone game to reach them, to mine the rich seam of commercial opportunity…

Someone said recently that in business you just have to get on with things. The opportunities for creative innovation and for media content in particular, have never looked better.

The British are unique and the rest of the world loves what the UK has to offer. It just remains for us to embrace change, to be confident in ourselves, and to persevere in expressing and exporting our cultural life...

James Bunn is an international media executive non-executive director and advisor.