The Dark Side of the Super Bowl Guac Supply Chain

If you are hosting or attending a Super Bowl party this weekend, there is a good chance you’ll enjoy some chips and guacamole. 20 percent of annual U.S. avocado sales take place this weekend, and to meet that demand, imports from Mexico have been up by 30-40 percent for the last month or so.

Not to rain on your guac – I love the green stuff too – but there is a lot of complexity and danger associated with getting avocados from Mexico to your living room coffee table. Mexico provides 70 percent of the world’s supply of avocados; they export over 2 billion pounds of the fruit to the U.S. each year.

Unfortunately, where there is money, there is also an incentive for criminal activity – as was recently reported by the Associated Press.

There are only two Mexican states certified to export avocados to the U.S.: Michoacan and Jalisco. Michoacan alone exports $2.8 billion in “green gold” each year. Santa Ana Zirosto in Michoacan is one of the most productive avocado growing areas in Mexico. The drive from the farm to packing plants in Uruapan and Tancitaro is 40 miles long, and it is plagued by dangers: drug cartels, extortionists, and kidnappers.

Each 10-ton truck carries a load worth between $80-100K, a huge prize for criminals looking to fund their illicit empires. In past years, 2-3 trucks were stolen or carjacked per day during this busy season. This year, the Mexican Civil Guard is providing police escorts for around 40 trucks per day, ensuring that they safely reach their destination. Even with this added security, 1-2 trucks per week are still stolen from their owners and drivers.

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The Lesser of Two Weevils?

Believe it or not, Mexico has only been exporting avocados to the U.S. for about 25 years. “Fresh avocados from Mexico were banned by the United States from 1914 to 1997 because of the seed weevil, a pest seen as a threat to U.S. avocados grown primarily in California.” (Mexico News Daily)

According to the Haas Avocado Board, 86 percent of U.S. avocado production comes from California, with Florida and Hawaii representing a distant second and third. And while the California Avocado Commission expects to harvest 257 million pounds of avocados during the 2022-23 fiscal year (down 7% from the year before), they have a timing problem... California’s crop won’t be fully ready until March, long after the Super Bowl is over.

Although avocados can legally be imported from Mexico, they still have to pass inspection by USDA personnel located in Mexico – a job that is just as dangerous as that of avocado truck driver.

In 2019, one USDA inspector received a death threat when “local authorities say a gang robbed the truck the inspectors were traveling in at gunpoint.” (USA Today) The incident took place in August, so while the U.S. government responded by threatening to suspend their activity in the area, there is no record of any active response - perhaps because it was not Super Bowl season or Cinco de Mayo?

And then in 2022, U.S. inspections were halted for 10 days, and Michoacan temporarily lost their export license, because a plant safety inspector was threatened. Packers were buying avocados from non-certified states and trying to pass them off as being from Michoacan. The inspector recognized the deception and refused - hence the threat and subsequent ban of all avocado exports.

In an embarrassing coincidence, the ban was announced the same day as the Mexican avocado growers and packers’ association released their 2022 Super Bowl Ad. Luckily for them, game day avocados had been exported weeks before the ban took effect. At the same time, the disruption caused wholesale prices to double, from $40/case to almost $80 (CNN). Exports resumed one week after the threat and prices gradually returned to normal levels.

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Green Gold for ‘Big Avocado’

Avocados From Mexico is a nonprofit marketing organization “that spreads the good news about avocados from Mexico.” They will once again sponsor a Super Bowl commercial in 2023, a 30-second spot that will cost $7M according to NBC Philadelphia.

Crime is down, which is a good thing for farmers, trick drivers, exporters, importers, and consumers – but the costs of security are up, and the challenges will no doubt persist. With lives and revenue both on the line, farmers, packers, drivers, exporters, and inspectors alike are faced with tough decisions.

Last year’s threat and inspection pause came just days after the Super Bowl. We should all be on the lookout to see if the same happens again later this year - or next week.

Other content released this week

Buyer Power Score – Pest Control Services on Art of Procurement

A Look at the Current State of Procurement Recruiting

The Sourcing Hero episode 101: Maximizing the Value of Strong Supplier Partnerships with Juli Lassow

Procurement 6 for Friday February 11, 2023 on Art of Procurement

Recommended Procurement and Supply Chain Webinars Feb 13-17: Emotional Intelligence, Supply Chain IMPACT, Agile Strategies in an Age of Uncertainty

Book Review: Start for Success by Jan Cavelle