The Dangers of Overconfidence

The first few times I ever played pickleball, I thought, “Wow, this is so easy. In no time, I could be a professional player.” This initial overconfidence is something many of us experience in various aspects of life.

The Couch Coach Phenomenon

Watching the recent Olympics, I noticed a similar attitude of couch coaching. After just a few minutes of watching elite-level play, many viewers suddenly felt like instant experts, convinced they could outperform the athletes.

The Illusion of Knowledge

This phenomenon isn’t limited to sports. We often read an article or two and believe we know a great deal about an important topic, leading us to make decisions with long-term consequences. For instance, we might hear about a hot stock tip, do some light browsing on the internet, and then execute the trade without thoroughly understanding the company’s balance sheets, management philosophies, or products.

The Risks of Overconfidence

This mental model can quickly get us into trouble. Can sheer willpower overcome these tendencies? Unlikely. However, by developing guardrails and tripping points, we can manage these biases and put systems in place to mitigate unintended risks.

Introducing H.A.L.T.S.S.

When making a decision, check in with yourself using the H.A.L.T.S.S. method: "Am I...?"

• Hungry
• Angry
• Lonely
• Tired
• Scared
• Stressed

The Art of the Unsent Angry Letter

Write the letter (or email) and wait to send it. Learn the art of the unsent angry letter, a practice even Abraham Lincoln partook in. This allows you to release pent-up tension and say what you really think, often leading to a more measured response once emotions have simmered down.

Gathering Diverse Perspectives

Gather input from at least three sources with differing views. Understanding a situation from multiple perspectives leads to a better grasp of the issue at hand. For example, homelessness is a complex problem that has existed for thousands of years across cultures. By learning from an academic viewpoint, conversing with a practitioner in the field, a policymaker, and someone who lacks consistent housing, you’re less likely to be dismissive and see a ‘simple solution’ to a complex problem.

Conclusion

As I continue to write LinkedIn articles, it’s clear I never became a professional pickleball player. However, playing with over 500 people across multiple states, with varying athletic abilities, attitudes, and ages, has taught me the strategy of the game and the importance of having fun on the court. Mastery takes far more patience and persistence than our egos ever expect.