The Dangers of Drone Warfare

This is a continuation on my Earlier Write-up What is a Drone Swarm or a Swarm Drone ?https://www.dhirubhai.net/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7154376150041923584

The Rise of the Unmanned Warrior: Weaponized Drones and the Looming Shadow of Conflict

The whirring of rotors and the hum of distant engines – once associated with traditional airpower – now herald a new era of warfare. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), more commonly known as drones, have transformed military capabilities, offering unparalleled reach, precision, and persistence on the battlefield. However, this technological marvel comes with a dark side – the weaponization of drones raises profound ethical questions and poses a significant threat to global security.

The Rise of the Unmanned Warrior: Weaponized Drones and the Looming Shadow of Conflict

The whirring of rotors and the hum of distant engines – once associated with traditional airpower – now herald a new era of warfare. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), more commonly known as drones, have transformed military capabilities, offering unparalleled reach, precision, and persistence on the battlefield. However, this technological marvel comes with a dark side – the weaponization of drones raises profound ethical questions and poses a significant threat to global security.

The Allure of Weaponized Drones:

Military strategists are captivated by the advantages of drones. Their ability to operate in high-risk environments without endangering pilots makes them ideal for targeted strikes and intelligence gathering. The extended flight times compared to manned aircraft allow for continuous surveillance, while the smaller size makes them harder to detect. Additionally, the cost-effectiveness of drones compared to traditional fighter jets is a significant factor, particularly for protracted conflicts.

Furthermore, the precision-strike capabilities of drones are often touted as minimizing civilian casualties. This argument, however, is contested. The inherent difficulty of distinguishing combatants from civilians in complex battlegrounds can lead to tragic errors. Additionally, the psychological impact of constant drone surveillance can be devastating for civilian populations living under the threat of attack.

The Dangers of Drone Warfare:

The widespread proliferation of weaponized drones presents a multitude of dangers. Here's a closer look at some of the most concerning aspects:

Lowering the Threshold for War: The ease of deploying drones can lead to a decreased reluctance to engage in military action. The perceived lower risk and cost compared to manned operations can make leaders more prone to resorting to military solutions.

Blurring the Lines of Accountability: The anonymity of drone warfare raises concerns about accountability for civilian casualties. The distance between the operator and the battlefield can create a sense of detachment, potentially leading to less care taken in targeting decisions.

Proliferation Risks: As drone technology becomes more readily available and affordable, the risk of falling into the wrong hands increases. Terrorist organizations and other non-state actors could potentially acquire drones and utilize them for devastating attacks.

Autonomous Weapon Systems: The development of autonomous weapons systems, also known as "killer robots," poses an existential threat. Machines making life-or-death decisions without human intervention are a terrifying prospect. The ethical and legal implications of such systems are complex and remain unresolved.

Disruption of Civilian Airspace: The increasing number of military drones operating globally poses a threat to civilian air traffic. Accidents and near misses are becoming more frequent, raising concerns about the safety of commercial airlines and passenger safety.

The Need for International Regulation:

The international community urgently needs to address the proliferation and use of weaponized drones. Here are some potential solutions:

International Treaties: Crafting international treaties that regulate the production, sale, and use of armed drones is crucial. These treaties should address issues like targeting restrictions, civilian casualty mitigation, and limitations on autonomous weaponry.

Transparency and Accountability: Increased transparency in military drone programs is essential. Establishing mechanisms for independent investigations into civilian casualties caused by drone strikes builds trust and accountability.

Ethical Guidelines: Developing a robust set of international ethical guidelines for drone warfare is critical. These guidelines should address issues such as proportionality, distinction between civilians and combatants, and the use of autonomous weapons systems.

Global Dialogue: Fostering global dialogue among nations with drone programs is essential. Collaboration on safety protocols, risk reduction measures, and responsible use of this technology can help mitigate the dangers associated with weaponized drones.

The whirring of rotors and the hum of distant engines have become a ubiquitous soundtrack in modern warfare. Yet, unlike the roaring jets of yesteryear, these sounds emanate from a new breed of warriors – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones. These technological marvels have revolutionized military capabilities, offering unparalleled reach, precision, and persistence on the battlefield. However, the allure of weaponized drones masks a multitude of dangers, raising profound ethical questions and casting a long shadow over global security.

Part 1: The Allure and Transformation of Warfare

The rise of weaponized drones can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, drones offer unparalleled tactical advantages. Unlike manned aircraft, they can operate in high-risk environments without endangering pilots. This makes them ideal for conducting targeted strikes in hostile territory or gathering intelligence in areas too dangerous for manned reconnaissance missions. Their extended flight times compared to traditional aircraft allow for continuous surveillance, while the smaller size makes them harder to detect by radar, granting an element of surprise.

Secondly, the cost-effectiveness of drones is a significant factor, particularly for protracted conflicts. The cost of operating a drone is considerably lower than maintaining a fleet of manned fighter jets and training pilots. This economic advantage makes drones particularly appealing to nations with limited defense budgets.

Thirdly, the precision-strike capabilities of drones are often touted as minimizing civilian casualties in targeted operations. Equipped with advanced sensors and laser targeting, drones can strike with pinpoint accuracy, minimizing collateral damage compared to traditional airstrikes. However, this argument is often fiercely contested. The inherent difficulty of distinguishing combatants from civilians in complex battlegrounds can lead to tragic errors. Additionally, the psychological impact of constant drone surveillance can be devastating for civilian populations living under the threat of attack.

Part 2: The Descent into Darkness - The Dangers of Drone Warfare

While the allure of weaponized drones is undeniable, their widespread use presents a multitude of dangers. Here's a deeper dive into some of the most concerning aspects:

Lowering the Threshold for War: The ease of deploying drones can lead to a decreased reluctance to engage in military action. The perceived lower risk and cost compared to manned operations can make leaders more prone to resorting to military solutions for resolving international disputes. This trend could lead to an increase in localized conflicts and destabilize regions already grappling with tension.

Blurring the Lines of Accountability: The anonymity of drone warfare raises concerns about accountability for civilian casualties. Unlike traditional warfare where pilots directly witness the consequences of their actions, drone operators are often thousands of miles away from the battlefield. This physical and psychological distance can create a sense of detachment, potentially leading to less care taken in targeting decisions and a decreased sense of responsibility for civilian casualties.

Proliferation Risks: As drone technology becomes more readily available and affordable, the risk of falling into the wrong hands increases. Terrorist organizations and other non-state actors could potentially acquire drones and utilize them for devastating attacks. This proliferation could destabilize entire regions and create a global security nightmare.

Autonomous Weapon Systems: The development of autonomous weapons systems, also known as "killer robots," poses an existential threat. The prospect of machines making life-or-death decisions without human intervention is a terrifying one. The ethical and legal implications of such systems are complex and remain unresolved. The potential for unintended escalation or catastrophic malfunction raises serious concerns about the future of warfare.

Disruption of Civilian Airspace: The increasing number of military drones operating globally poses a threat to civilian air traffic. Accidents and near misses are becoming more frequent, raising concerns about the safety of commercial airlines and passenger safety. The potential for a catastrophic mid-air collision between a drone and a passenger aircraft is a terrifying prospect.

Part 3: A Call for International Action - Towards Responsible Drone Use

The international community urgently needs to address the proliferation and use of weaponized drones. This requires a multi-pronged approach involving international regulation, increased transparency, ethical guidelines, and a commitment to responsible use.

International Treaties: Crafting international treaties that regulate the production, sale, and use of armed drones is crucial. These treaties should address issues like:

Targeting Restrictions: Establishing clear and well-defined rules for targeting combatants, minimizing the risk of civilian casualties.

Civilian Casualty Mitigation: Developing robust protocols to minimize the risk of civilian casualties in drone strikes. This could include mandatory reporting of civilian casualties and independent investigations into allegations of misuse.

Limitations on Autonomous Weaponry: Implementing a global ban on the development and deployment of fully autonomous weapons systems. Humans should always be in control of the use of lethal force.

Part 1: The Rise of the Unmanned Warrior - A Technological Revolution and its Tactical Advantages

The landscape of modern warfare has been forever altered by the rise of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones. These technological marvels have transformed military capabilities, offering unparalleled reach, precision, and persistence on the battlefield. To fully understand the weaponization of drones and its implications, we must first delve into the factors that have made them so alluring to military strategists.

1.1 Tactical Advantages - Dominating the Battlefield from Afar

Reduced Risk to Personnel: Unlike manned aircraft, drones operate without pilots onboard, eliminating the risk of casualties or capture during missions. This allows for the deployment of drones in high-risk environments where traditional air support might be deemed too dangerous. For example, drones can be used to conduct targeted strikes in hostile territory or gather intelligence in areas too dangerous for manned reconnaissance missions.

Extended Loiter Time and Persistent Surveillance: Drones boast considerably longer flight times compared to manned fighter jets. This allows for continuous surveillance of an area, providing real-time intelligence and operational flexibility. This persistent presence can be invaluable for tracking enemy movements, identifying targets, and monitoring the battlefield over extended periods.

Smaller Size and Lower Detectability: The relatively smaller size of drones compared to traditional aircraft makes them more difficult to detect by radar. This translates to an element of surprise, allowing for more effective surprise attacks and covert operations. Additionally, the smaller size reduces the drone's radar signature, making it harder for enemy air defenses to lock on and engage.

Cost-Effectiveness for Protracted Conflicts: Maintaining a fleet of manned fighter jets and training pilots is a significant expense for any nation. Drones, on the other hand, are considerably cheaper to operate, making them a more sustainable option for protracted conflicts where resources are stretched thin. This cost advantage allows nations with limited defense budgets to maintain a robust aerial presence.

1.2 The Allure of Precision - Minimizing Collateral Damage (But is it a Myth?)

Proponents of weaponized drones often tout their precision-strike capabilities as a key advantage. Equipped with advanced sensors and laser targeting systems, drones can theoretically deliver munitions with pinpoint accuracy. This, in theory, minimizes collateral damage and civilian casualties compared to traditional airstrikes that may have a larger blast radius.

However, the effectiveness of precision strikes in real-world scenarios is a subject of fierce debate. The inherent difficulty of distinguishing combatants from civilians in complex battlegrounds can lead to tragic errors in targeting. Additionally, the psychological impact of constant drone surveillance can be devastating for civilian populations living under the threat of attack.

To fully understand the impact of weaponized drones, it's crucial to examine their real-world applications. Here are some key case studies:

The U.S. Drone Program in Pakistan: The U.S. has been heavily reliant on drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal areas to target suspected militants. While the program is credited with eliminating some high-profile targets, it has also resulted in a significant number of civilian casualties. This has fueled anti-American sentiment in the region and raised international concerns about accountability for civilian deaths.

The Rise of Drone Swarms in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan showcased the growing threat of drone swarms. Both sides extensively used low-cost, commercially available drones equipped with explosives to inflict significant damage on enemy armor and infrastructure. This incident highlights the increasing accessibility of drone technology and the potential for asymmetric warfare.

The Use of Drones in Search and Rescue Operations: Drones are not solely used for offensive purposes. Their ability to navigate difficult terrain and carry search equipment makes them invaluable in search and rescue operations. They can locate missing persons, assess damage after natural disasters, and deliver crucial supplies to remote areas.

Part 2: The Descent into Darkness - The Dangers of Drone Warfare (2000 Words)

While the tactical advantages of drones are undeniable, their widespread use raises a multitude of ethical and security concerns. Let's delve deeper into the dangers associated with weaponized UAVs.

2.1 Lowering the Threshold for War - A Slippery Slope to Increased Conflict

The ease of deployment and perceived lower risk compared to manned operations can lead to a decreased reluctance to engage in military action. This "drone strike first, ask questions later" mentality can contribute to an increase in localized conflicts and destabilize regions already grappling with tension.

Drone warfare is a form of aerial warfare or marine warfare using unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) or weaponized commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The United States, United Kingdom, Israel, China, South Korea, Iran, Iraq, Italy, France, India, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and Poland are known to have manufactured operational UCAVs as of 2019.

Drone attacks can be conducted by commercial UCAVs dropping bombs, firing a missile, or crashing into a target.Since the turn of the century, most drone strikes have been carried out by the US military in such countries as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Somalia, Yemen and Libya using air-to-surface missiles,[6] but drone warfare has increasingly been deployed by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Azerbaijan and by militant groups such as the Houthis.Drone strikes are used for assassinations by several countries.

United States

See also: Disposition Matrix, Special Activities Center, and 432nd Wing

A Predator drone firing a Hellfire missile

Estimates for the total people killed in U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, range from 2,000 to 3,500 militants killed and 158–965 civilians killed.81 insurgent leaders in Pakistan have been killed.Drone strikes in Yemen are estimated to have killed 846–1,758 militants and 116–225 civilians.57 Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leaders are confirmed to have been killed.

In August 2018, Al Jazeera reported that a Saudi Arabian-led coalition combating Houthi rebels in Yemen had secured secret deals with al-Qaeda in Yemen and recruited hundreds of that group's fighters: "... Key figures in the deal-making said the United States was aware of the arrangements and held off on drone attacks against the armed group, which was created by Osama bin Laden in 1988."

After US president Donald Trump had increased drone strikes by over 400%,his successor Joe Biden reversed course. Under Biden, drone strikes reportedly decreased.A Biden administration drone strike in Kabul, Afghanistan in August 2021 killed 10 civilians, including seven children.Later, a drone strike killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Effects

Scholarly opinions are mixed regarding the efficacy of drone strikes. Some studies support that decapitation strikes to kill a terrorist or insurgent group's leadership limit the capabilities of these groups in the future, while other studies refute this. Drone strikes are successful at suppressing militant behavior, though this response is in anticipation of a drone strike rather than as a result of one. Data from the US and Pakistan's joint counter-terrorism efforts show that militants cease communication and attack planning to avoid detection and targeting.

Proponents of drone strikes assert that drone strikes are largely effective in targeting specific combatants.Some scholars argue that drone strikes reduce the amount of civilian casualties and territorial damage when compared to other types of military force like large bombs.Military alternatives to drone strikes such as raids and interrogations can be extremely risky, time-consuming, and potentially ineffective. Relying on drone strikes does not come without risks as U.S. drone usage sets an international precedent on extraterritorial and extrajudicial killings.

Islamic State drone strikes

Small drones and quadcopters have been used for strikes by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. A group of twelve or more have been piloted by specially trained pilots to drop munitions onto enemy forces. They have been able to evade ground defense forces.

During the battle for Mosul, the Islamic State was able to kill or wound dozens of Iraqi soldiers by dropping light explosives or 40-millimeter grenades from numerous drones attacking at the same time. Drone strikes were also used to destroy military supplies. Drone footage released by the Islamic State showed bombs being dropped on an ammunitions facility located in Deir ez-Zor, Syria, an area of contested control between the Islamic State and the Syrian government at the time.

In 2017, FBI Director Christopher Wray stated at a Senate hearing that "We do know that terrorist organizations have an interest in using drones ... We have seen that overseas already with some frequency. I think that the expectation is that it is coming here, imminently."

Drone expert Brett Velicovich discussed the dangers of the Islamic State utilizing off the shelf drones to attack civilian targets, claiming in an interview with Fox News that it was only a matter of time before ISIS extremists use of drones to strike civilian targets would become more prevalent and sophisticated.

The overall success rate for drone strikes used by the Islamic State is unclear. The Islamic State may have used drones as a way to gather footage for propaganda purposes, rather than for their military value.

Proliferation in the 2020s

Weaponizing of DJI Phantom commercial videography UAVs

On 6 January 2018, Russian forces thwarted a drone (UAV) swarm attack on the Khmeimim Air Base, the first of this kind in the history of warfare.

In 2020, a Turkish-made UAV loaded with explosives detected and attacked Haftar's forces in Libya with artificial intelligence and without command, according to a report from the UN Security Council's Panel of Experts on Libya published in March 2021. It was considered the first attack carried out by an AI UAV.

The Economist has cited Azerbaijan's highly effective use of drones against Armenia in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and Turkey's use of drones in the Syrian Civil War as indicating the future of warfare. Noting that it had previously been assumed that drones would not play a major role in conflicts between nations due to their vulnerability to anti-aircraft fire, it suggested that while this might be true for major powers with air defences, it was less true for minor powers. It noted Azerbaijani tactics and Turkey's use of drones as indicating a "new, more affordable type of air power". It also noted that the ability of drones to record their kills enabled a highly effective Azerbaijani propaganda campaign.

On 13 October 2022, a Ukrainian MiG-29 became the first manned plane to go down to a drone during combat. The pilot is claimed to have destroyed a Shahed-136 drone with his cannon. The blast is believed to have brought the plane down and hospitalised the pilot.

Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, approximately 30 companies in Ukraine have emerged to mass-produce drones for the war effort. The Ukraine government Ministry of Digital Transformation initiated the "Army of Drones" project, and is attempting to purchase up to 200,000 drones in 2023, aiming to deploy relatively cheap drones against large advantages Russia has had in military equipment. In 2023, they have also sponsored several competitions where the "dozens of drone developers that have sprung up all over Ukraine" are invited to make simulated attacks on ground targets, or chase fixed-wing drones, or even participate in drone dogfight competions. One new model that has been successful is the "Baba Yaga" hexacopter, which can carry "44 pounds of payload".

Commercial UCAVs

Commercial UCAVs may be equipped with such weapons as guided bombs, cluster bombs, incendiary devices, air-to-surface missiles, air-to-air missiles, anti-tank guided missiles or other types of precision-guided munitions, autocannons and machine guns.Drone attacks can be conducted by commercial UCAVs dropping bombs, firing a missile, or crashing into a target.Commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be weaponized by being loaded with dangerous explosives and then crashed into vulnerable targets or detonated above them. They can conduct aerial bombing by dropping hand grenades, mortar shell or other improvised explosive munitions directly above targets. Payloads could include explosives, shrapnel, chemical, radiological or biological hazards. Multiple drones may attack simultaneously in a drone swarm.Drones have been used extensively by both sides for recon and artillery spotting in the Russo-Ukraine War.

Anti-UAV systems are being developed by states to counter the threat of drone strikes.This is, however, proving difficult. According to James Rogers, an academic who studies drone warfare, "There is a big debate out there at the moment about what the best way is to counter these small UAVs, whether they are used by hobbyists causing a bit of a nuisance or in a more sinister manner by a terrorist actor."

Azerbaijan drone warfare

Turkish made Bayraktar TB2 at Baku Victory Parade of 2020, Azerbaijan

During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, UCAVs have been used extensively by the Azerbaijani Army against the Armenian Army.These UCAVs included Israeli IAI Harops and Turkish Bayraktar TB2s.As the Bayraktar TB2 uses Canadian optics and laser targeting systems, in October 2020 Canada suspended export of its military drone technology to Turkey after allegations that the technology had been used to collect intelligence and direct artillery and missile fire at military positions. After the incident, Aselsan stated that it would begin the serial production and integration of the CATS system to replace the Canadian MX15B.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, both sides have utilised drones in combat and for reconnaissance, and drones have played an important role in offensives. Ukrainian forces have made extensive use of the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone throughout the conflict in strikes against Russian forces. Russian forces meanwhile launched waves of Iranian HESA Shahed 136 drones during the October 2022 missile strikes on Ukraine.The main roles of drones in the war, however, are in reconnaissance and artillery spotting. Russian sources claimed to have used a "Stupor anti-drone rifle" to jam the radio controls of Ukrainian drones.

On October 13, 2022, the first recorded instance of an unarmed drone-on-drone combat encounter occurred above the Donetsk region of Ukraine. A Ukrainian DJI Mavic quadcopter was recorded ramming a Russian drone of the same model, resulting in the latter crashing towards the surface below.Another instance of this aerial ramming tactic occurred on November 24, 2022, this time with the Russian DJI Mavic being recorded plummeting towards the ground after a collision with a Ukrainian drone.On May 9, 2023, a Russian conscript surrendered to (or rather via) a Ukrainian drone.The average HESA Shahed 136 drone is worth about $20,000. An IRIS-T missile is worth about $430,000 each in comparison. From 13 September until 17 October, open source information suggests that Ukraine has had to spend $28.14 million on defending against these drones.

Since at least September 2022, Ukraine has used black naval drones, equipped with the Starlink satellite internet system, to carry attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet at the Sevastopol Naval base.The naval drones were at first assumed to be for reconnaissance, but appear to carry munitions and act as a bomb.With experts noting that the sensors on the front of the naval drone could be used as a laser range finder to help in targeting.In late October 2022, seven of these drones were used to mount a successful drone attack on the Sevastopol Naval base.

In September 2023, Ukrainian troops were reported as using cardboard drones with GoPro cameras for aerial reconnaissance.

2023 Gaza War

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an invasion of southern Israel, using commercial drones to bomb Israeli guard towers before breaching the border wall. Videos of Israeli troops and a Merkava IV tank being taken out by drones surfaced on the internet.

The largest drone attack in history

As of April 14, 2024, the world's largest drone attack in history took place in the middle of the conflict caused by the developments of the Israeli war on Gaza, with a mass and simultaneous attack of more than 185 Iranian drones in less than a few hours against targets across Israel. This Iranian attack on Israel was carried out in response to the bombing of the Iranian consular building in Damascus (which happened a few days before by the Israeli side).

Examples :

Anti-drone systems using: electronic jamming and hi-jacking systems, directed-energy weapons (mainly laser), kinetic projectiles, netting, trained eagles etc.

? Counter unmanned air system (C-UAS)

? Anti-aircraft warfare § AUDS

Electronic beam

? Directed-energy weapon, planned to also be used against drones

? Laser weapon: Anti-drone systems

? Silent Hunter (laser weapon), Chinese anti-drone laser weapon

Electronic warfare (EW) - jamming & hi-jacking

? Bukovel (counter unmanned aircraft system), Ukrainian anti-drone electronic warfare system

? EDM4S (Electronic Drone Mitigation 4 - System), Lithuanian portable EW anti-drone device

? Malyuk assault rifle, Riff model: Ukrainian man-portable battery-powered anti-drone weapon

? R-330Zh Zhitel, Russian truck-mounted EW jamming communication station

Kinetic systems

? Slinger (weapon system), Australian anti-drone system using an auto-cannon

Large systems & manufacturers

? Drone Dome, Israeli anti-aircraft including anti-drone system developed by Rafael ADS

? DronesVision, Taiwanese arms manufacturer, specialising in UAV and anti-UAV technologies

? Indrajaal Autonomous Drone Defence Dome, Indian AI anti-drone system

? ZALA Aero Group, Russian arms manufacturer, specialising in UAV and anti-UAV EW systems

Conclusion:

Weaponized drones are a potent force on the modern battlefield. While they offer tactical advantages, their use raises significant ethical concerns and threatens global security. Only through international cooperation, robust regulations, and a commitment to responsible use can we harness the potential of drone technology for good while ensuring it doesn't usher in a new era of unchecked violence.

Disclosure & Legal Disclaimer Statement Some of the Content has been taken from Open Internet Sources just for representation purposes.

Anjoum Sirohhi