A Dangerous New Alliance

As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau clings to power amid growing challenges, his Liberal government might finally be on the verge of collapse.

With NDP leader Jagmeet Singh tearing up the "Confidence and Supply" agreement that has kept the Liberals afloat, the Liberals are in the precarious position of having to call an election, seek the NDP’s votes on a case-by-case basis, or work with the Bloc Québécois.

This means the possibility of a Liberal government propped up by the Bloc Québécois looms large as Parliament prepares to reconvene.

Bloc Québécois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet is openly courting the Liberals.

For Alberta, this prospect is nothing short of alarming.

Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois have long been a thorn in Alberta’s side, pushing an agenda designed to cripple the province's oil and gas industry. His relentless opposition to Western energy projects, like the cancellation of the Energy East pipeline, could be just the beginning.?

“This guy makes New Democrat Jagmeet Singh and the Green Party’s Elizabeth May look moderate,” says Postmedia columnist Don Braid. “Compared to him, federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault is an environmental pussycat.”

Now, with the Liberals weakened and desperate, Blanchet’s radical ideas may soon become government policy.

One of the most dangerous proposals on the table is Blanchet’s so-called "Green Equalization" scheme.?

We have long believed that equalization, as a concept, is fundamentally wrong and creates a situation where a resource-poor, voter-rich part of the country can take advantage of a resource-rich, voter-poor part of the country,

It only serves to create division.

Blanchet’s plan is even worse.

It would force provinces with higher emissions - such as Alberta, which powers the nation’s economy - to pay into a new equalization fund.?

Under this logic, Alberta would be penalized for producing the oil and gas that powers Canada, while provinces like Quebec, with its hydroelectric advantage, would receive payouts.

Premier Danielle Smith has condemned any possible deal between the Liberals and Bloc Québécois, emphasizing that Alberta, the West, and the rest of Canada cannot be sacrificed in backroom deals with the Bloc.?

“If the Liberals go down this path, we need an election to be called immediately,” she posted on social media platform X.

With Parliament set to reconvene on Monday, the Liberal caucus is gathering in Nanaimo for their annual retreat to discuss the party’s future.?

Trudeau is facing growing dissent within his party following a devastating by-election loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s in early June - a riding the Liberals had held since 1993.

Liberal MPs, increasingly vocal about the party’s dismal poll numbers, are growing more anxious.?

Senior staffers are leaving in droves, including national campaign director Jeremy Broadhurst.?

The upcoming by-elections will be telling.

On Monday, voters in Winnipeg and Montreal will elect new MPs to fill the seats vacated by NDP MP Daniel Blaikie and former Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti.

This will give us a snapshot of the public mood in both Quebec and Manitoba.

In theory, these by-elections are symbolic - no matter the result, a minority government will remain, with the Liberals needing support from either the Bloc or NDP to pass legislation.

But there are many possible lessons to be learned.

A strong Liberal performance might give the government fresh hope of re-election.

A strong NDP performance might show the benefit of cutting ties with the government and give the Bloc reason to think twice about tying themselves to a sinking ship.

A strong Bloc performance might have them eager for a general election, where a weak Liberal Party is their best chance of forming official opposition

Whatever happens, the political landscape has shifted dramatically in the last few weeks.

Either the Liberals will call an election, pass legislation on a case-by-case basis, or develop a power-sharing agreement with the Bloc.

We need to be prepared for each scenario.?

An early election means we need to be ready to help shape the narrative, and present coherent information and policy to you - the voters - to help you make a decision.

If the Liberals operate on a bill-by-bill basis, then it’s possible that one vote could dissolve Parliament and send us to the polls.

If the Bloc, with their Green Equalization dreams, sign a power sharing agreement, we must be prepared to protect the interests of our energy industry in the face of hostile and deliberate attacks from Ottawa.