A dangerous enemy, readying for one more attack on Kyiv, but facing a crackup by the end of next year. Kyiv attack will hasten breakup of Russia
Putin has morphed his regime into NAZI themes and NAZI tactics. It will not save him
If one million Russians died trying to attack Kyiv, Putin will not give a damn. Let us not forget. This is the despotism Putin's Russia has morphed into: But it will geo politically destroy Russia by the end of 2023
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The borders of the Russian Federation will likely not look the same on a map in 10 or 20 years as they do now. As the final collapse of the Soviet Union plays out and as the Russian Federation faces the possibility of dissolving, policymakers need to start planning for the new geopolitical reality on the Eurasian landmass.
The goal of this policy memo is not to advocate for regime change in Russia—this will be a matter for the Russian people. Nor does this paper predict exactly how Russia and the broader Eurasian region will emerge after the final collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Russian Federation. Instead, it establishes realistic goals for Western policymakers,
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In other words, a Moscow centric regime forcing its dominance on the Russian people will only be kept as a contender by brutalist methods
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An elite Russian military brigade suffered so many losses while fighting in Ukraine that it was essentially "wiped out" and is expected to take a long time to rebuild, according to a new report.?
When it was first sent into Ukraine, the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, stationed in northwestern Russia near its border with NATO-leaning Finland, had more experience, newer equipment, and better training than many other Russian units, The Washington Post?reported ?on Friday.??
But despite these advantages, the 200th suffered greatly in the months of combat that would follow.
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in spite of this, a shambolic horde of Russians will be thrown at Kyiv early spring 2023
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Russia is waging a kind of total war on Ukraine's infrastructure — terrorizing civilians and committing potential war crimes — in an effort to force a ceasefire that it will only use to replenish its forces ahead of a new offensive early next year, Ukraine's top military commander said in an interview published Thursday, warning that the Russian invaders will at some point again try to seize the nation's capital.
"The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops," General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, head of Ukraine's armed forces,?told The Economist , referencing recent Russian mobilization efforts. "I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv."
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For the record AGAIN
If one million Russians died trying to attack Kyiv, Putin will not give a damn. Let us not forget. This is the despotism Putin's Russia has morphed into: But it will geo politically destroy Russia by the end of 2023
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Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Dissolution of the Russian Federation
Caption
A destroyed Russian tank stands by the road in front of an orthodox temple in the liberated town of Sviatohirsk, Ukraine, on November 30, 2022. (Andriy Andriyenko/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev as president of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the start of the USSR’s collapse—but not the collapse itself. While the USSR ceased to exist as a legal entity after 1991, the collapse of the USSR is still happening today. The two Chechen Wars, Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the on-and-off border skirmishes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the 2020 Second Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan are just a few examples showing that the Soviet Union is still collapsing today.?
However, future historians will likely describe Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the most consequential moment, if not the final moment, of the Soviet Union’s collapse. When the war in Ukraine will end is unknown, but it will likely mark the dissolution of the Russian Federation (the legal successor of the Soviet Union) as it is known today. Russia has undeniably suffered a major blow to its economy, devastation to its military capability, and degradation of its influence in regions where it once had clout. The borders of the Russian Federation will likely not look the same on a map in 10 or 20 years as they do now. As the final collapse of the Soviet Union plays out and as the Russian Federation faces the possibility of dissolving, policymakers need to start planning for the new geopolitical reality on the Eurasian landmass.
The goal of this policy memo is not to advocate for regime change in Russia—this will be a matter for the Russian people. Nor does this paper predict exactly how Russia and the broader Eurasian region will emerge after the final collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Russian Federation. Instead, it establishes realistic goals for Western policymakers, outlines assumptions on which these goals are based, and highlights the questions that decision-makers should ask?now?to better prepare for the future.?
Goals
After the dissolution of the Russian Federation, the United States should pursue a set of achievable goals that narrowly focus on the American national interest. Specifically, the US will need to:?
Planning Assumptions
Although no one can predict what kind of Russia will emerge after the end of Putin’s rule, some reasonable assumptions can help policymakers plan better. These planning assumptions include:?
Seven Questions Policymakers Should Ask Now
No one can offer concrete recommendations for policymakers regarding a post-Putin Russia. However, they should ask seven questions now, while considering the aforementioned goals and assumptions, to better prepare for the final collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Russian Federation.
1. What should the US do to coordinate an international response to the calls for independence and self-determination that will likely emerge across Russia??The Russian Federation consists of 83 federal entities. Many comprise people with a shared culture, history, and language different from Russia’s Slavic population. Some of these entities already have low-level independence movements.5 ?In the aftermath of the dissolution of the Russian Federation, policymakers should expect some of these federal entities to declare independence. The United States needs to work with its partners to coordinate a response to these calls for self-determination in a way that is aligned with US interests and is in accordance with international law.
2. How can the US and its partners keep internal armed conflict from spreading after the dissolution of the Russian Federation??The breakup of the Russian Federation will likely lead to internal fighting between different centers of power. It is in America's interests that fighting and conflict remain inside the current borders of the Russian Federation and do not affect neighboring countries. So the US and willing partners will need to enhance bilateral cooperation across the Eurasian landmass to improve military, border security, law enforcement, and security sector capabilities.
3. How can the US and its partners coordinate an international response to safeguard Russia’s WMD stockpiles??The Russian Federation’s thousands of nuclear weapons, along with its chemical and biological weapons programs, pose a risk to global stability if there is no security or accountability. This issue should be a cause for common concern for the international community. The United States should think now about how it will lead efforts to address this matter. For starters, it needs to invest more in better detection capabilities at border crossings across the region.
4. Should NATO and the EU take advantage of Moscow’s weakness and push for a “big bang” enlargement for remaining candidate and aspirant countries??There are several countries in Europe that aspire to someday join either the European Union, NATO, or both. For countries like Georgia and Ukraine, the primary stumbling block has been pressure and armed aggression from Russia. If the Russian Federation dissolves, the EU and NATO should consider accelerating the membership process for select countries.
5. How can the US and its partners coordinate economic and reconstruction assistance for regions under Russian occupation that will be liberated??Not only will the dissolution of the Russian Federation likely lead to calls for independence from certain regions inside Russia, but places where Russia currently occupies territory outside its borders will also likely be liberated. This includes Transnistria in Moldova, Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali (also known as South Ossetia) regions in Georgia, and Crimea and other places in Ukraine currently under Russian occupation. Washington will have a unique opportunity to help these US partners restore their territorial integrity inside their internationally recognized borders. The faster and more effectively this is done, the more stable the situation will become.
6. What does the US need to do to coordinate an international or regional response to resolving existing border disputes between the Russian Federation and some of its neighbors??These include the disputed islands of Ukatnyy, Zhestky, and Maly Zhemchuzhny in the Caspian Sea,6 ?the Estonian-Russian de facto border,7 ?the status of the Northern Territories,8 ?and possibly the Karelian Question.9 ?These might seem small issues to Western policymakers located thousands of miles away, but each has the potential to become a regional problem that could have global implications.
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7. What can the US and its partners do to roll back Russian influence in other parts of the world, such as in Syria, Libya, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa??Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s influence in certain parts of the world has already decreased. If the Russian Federation collapses, the Kremlin’s client states and proxy forces across the Middle East and Africa will also be affected. The US needs to start working now with its partners to develop a strategy on how to increase Western influence in regions where Russian influence is declining.
Conclusion
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has changed the security situation in the North Atlantic region in a way not seen since World War II. The Eurasian landmass will not fully feel the consequences of Russia’s invasion, especially if Ukraine is victorious, for years. Policymakers need to recognize the historical magnitude of the situation and start preparing accordingly.
The success of Ukraine on the battlefield against Russia could offer a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to put Russia back inside its geopolitical box for a generation. This would create a new geopolitical reality not seen in a generation. As policymakers plan for this new geopolitical reality, they should learn the lessons from the 1990s when Western decision-makers naively hoped for democratic governance and economic reforms in Russia that never materialized. If Moscow’s behavior on the world stage since 1991 has shown anything, it is that Russia is unlikely to become a responsible global actor in the foreseeable future. Instead of focusing on the unachievable, American decision-makers should pursue pragmatic and realistic policies that advance the national interest of the US.
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An elite Russian military brigade was basically 'wiped out,' taking so many losses in Ukraine that it will 'take years to rebuild,' report says
Jake Epstein ?Dec 16, 2022, 2:02 PM
An elite Russian military brigade suffered so many losses while fighting in Ukraine that it was essentially "wiped out" and is expected to take a long time to rebuild, according to a new report.?
When it was first sent into Ukraine, the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, stationed in northwestern Russia near its border with NATO-leaning Finland, had more experience, newer equipment, and better training than many other Russian units, The Washington Post?reported ?on Friday.??
But despite these advantages, the 200th suffered greatly in the months of combat that would follow.
Shortly after the invasion, units belonging to the 200th were attacked and ambushed, leaving numerous soldiers dead and equipment abandoned, according to the report.??
The 200th spent the following weeks defending positions in the Kharkiv region and fending off Ukrainian attacks. By late May, documents obtained by the Post revealed, hundreds of soldiers had been lost in Ukraine from two battalion tactical groups. Several months later, the 200th was routed during Ukraine's lightning counteroffensive in the northeast Kharkiv region.?
One soldier serving in the 200th after being drafted as part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's September?mobilization ?order told The Post this month that "the unit is in a state of decay" and he was given "painted helmets from 1941 and vests without plates." Western officials told the paper that the brigade was riddled with dysfunction,. hindering its combat capabilities.
"Nothing of that brigade is left," Col. Pavlo Fedosenko, the commander of Ukraine's 92nd Mechanized Brigade, told The Post in a recent interview. "It's completely wiped out." One senior European intelligence official told the paper that "it will take years to rebuild the 200th" because it lost so many soldiers and officers.?
The 200th is not the only high-profile band of Russian soldiers to have faced problems and depletion among its ranks while in Ukraine as Putin's battlefield woes mount as the war drags on.?
Paratroopers from the country's elite airborne force,?known as the VDV , took substantial loses as they encountered numerous failures during the early weeks of Russia's campaign. One VDV unit saw its commander killed, and another was ambushed during a patrol in the Kyiv region.??
More recently, the reconnaissance company of the?GRU's 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade ?experienced substantial casualties during the battle for Lyman, as Ukraine pressed ahead with its blitz-style counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.?
After nearly 10 months of war, the exact number of Russian troops who have died while fighting in Ukraine is unclear, as the Kremlin does not regularly provide such information to the public. And when it does, the numbers are widely seen as unreliable. Earlier this week, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that "we estimate over 100,000 Russians are either dead, injured, or have deserted."?
That figure echoes a similar estimate from Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, the highest-ranking US general, who said last month that?over 100,000 Russian soldiers ?had been "killed and wounded." Milley added that Ukraine has "probably" suffered similar casualties.??
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Head of Ukraine's military says he has 'no doubt' the Russians 'will have another go at Kyiv' as Putin adds more troops to his army
Charles R. Davis ?Dec 15, 2022, 1:27 PM
Russia is waging a kind of total war on Ukraine's infrastructure — terrorizing civilians and committing potential war crimes — in an effort to force a ceasefire that it will only use to replenish its forces ahead of a new offensive early next year, Ukraine's top military commander said in an interview published Thursday, warning that the Russian invaders will at some point again try to seize the nation's capital.
"The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops," General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, head of Ukraine's armed forces,?told The Economist , referencing recent Russian mobilization efforts. "I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv."
Zaluzhnyi, who took command of the military less than a year before Russia's February 2022 invasion, suggested that Russia, despite humiliating setbacks in recent months, is on the verge of crippling Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which could have a devastating effect on the army's morale.
"I am not an energy expert but it seems to me we are on the edge. We are balancing on a fine line," he told the magazine.
If Russia succeeds in destroying Ukraine's power grid, he continued, "that is when soldiers' wives and children start freezing. And such a scenario is possible. What kind of mood the fighters will be in, can you imagine? Without water, light and heat, can we talk about preparing reserves to keep fighting?"
Earlier this month, holding a glass of champagne at a Kremlin awards ceremony, Russian President Vladimir Putin?acknowledged that ?his armed forces are indeed targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure — attacks that have left millions without electricity in the winter cold, a potential war crime. "Yes, we do that," he said. "But who started it?"
The Russian leader suggested that Ukraine was responsible for Russia's actions, pointing to an attack on a bridge to Crimea that has since been repaired.
Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure, in many ways, come from a position of weakness. The Kremlin had prepared for no more than three months of war, Zaluzhnyi said. What the country's armed forces need now is a chance to regroup, possibly under the guise of peace. Putin himself has said the war may well be a "long process ," but it's clear the conflict was not meant to be.
"So most likely they are looking for ways to stop [fighting] and get a pause by any means: shelling civilians, leaving our wives and children to freeze to death," he said. "They need it for one simple purpose: they need time to gather resources and create new potential so they can continue to fulfill their goals."
The conventional wisdom has been that Russia's most recent mobilization will result, at best, in thousands of demoralized conscripts being thrown into the meat grinder that is eastern Ukraine. But Zaluzhnyi said he does not believe those troops will be as lacking in patriotism and motivation as some might think.
"Russian mobilization has worked," he maintained. "It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I've studied the history of the two Chechen wars — it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us."
Ceasefire or not, Zaluzhnyi expects Russia will throw all its got at a new offensive "which may take place in February, at best in March, and at worst at the end of January," he said. "It may start not in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv, in the direction of Belarus, I do not rule out the southern direction as well."
Earlier this month, Ukraine's defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov,?told CNN ?that he's worried that a fresh Russian invasion could come from Belarus, whose authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is a close ally of Putin — although, in a recent assessment, experts at the Institute for the Study of War argued that Belarus itself is unlikely to join the war.
Come what may, Zaluzhnyi said he was confident his forces can defeat their much larger adversary, provided that Ukraine's allies continue to aid its defense. "I know that I can beat this enemy," he insisted. "But I need resources."
Have a news tip? Email this reporter:?[email protected]
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