Dancing with complexity: the key to coping with today’s changing environment

Our world is becoming more and more complex – and the first step to helping us navigate the challenges we face is understanding what this really means. At our recent #AgriVision2023, Nutreco’s Chief Science Officer Dr. David Bravo said we can not only use complexity to cope with complexity, but also turn it into a competitive advantage.

A learning paradigm built on predictability

For centuries, our educational paradigm has been based on Newtonian doctrine, said Dr. Bravo. It is built around determinism and predictability, and shapes how we look at and respond to our environment. “In Newtonian science, there is no uncertainty – the world is in a steady state, at least for the life span of a generation,” he said.

But this paradigm may be losing its relevance in a world that is increasingly complex, where the risks we face are highly interconnected. “We have the challenge of being ingenious and innovative in an environment impacted by many factors: consumer constraints, war, raw material costs and the creation of different political systems, all of which are fostering continuous change and unpredictability.”

The difference between complex and complicated

Dr. Bravo said that perhaps it is time to change our paradigm and “dance with complexity.” But he said it’s critical to first understand the difference between complexity and complicatedness. “The word ‘complex’ comes from a Latin word that means ‘to weave.’ The opposite of complex is independent. On the other hand, ‘complicated’ comes from the Latin word for ‘to fold.’ The opposite of complicated is simple.”

According to Dr. Bravo, a complex system is made up of many individual agents connecting, interacting and adding value – with a whole that is bigger than its parts, such as a beehive. A complicated system is also made up of many parts and contains “folds” that conceal its inner structure. However, it is predictable and able to eventually be understood. For example, a watch is a complicated system, but with talent, money and the right process, you can create one.

He said misunderstanding the difference between these concepts leads to problems in organizations, especially when they try to make disruptive, innovative moves. “Industries grow by being complicated, but there is always a tipping point when a significant part of the business becomes complex. Companies respond by adding procedures and processes, instead of organizational complexity and connectivity. They tackle complexity as if it was complication.”

Innovation: where complexity and complicatedness clash

Dr. Bravo said that only companies that successfully create an organisation able to link chaos with stability will be thriving and proactive. “But unfortunately, when the environment becomes truly complex, many companies are unable to do this. They start calcifying and lose their capacity to be proactive.”

Dr. Bravo talked about the stage gate process developed around 2000 and still popular today. He said it is a wonderful tool for governing the critical engine of organisations – R&D, strategic marketing, technical marketing and technical sales – that come at the end of the continuum of innovation. But the problem comes in when companies equate the stage gate process with an innovation model.

“The truly disruptive, innovative ideas – not the incremental improvements – are developed further upstream. For 25 years I have seen it: innovation is where complexity and complicatedness clash.”

Radical innovation happens at the edge of chaos

He said that at the end of the continuum where R&D development sits, the environment is imminently complicated. “R&D marketing and technical sales teams have the talent to deal with this complication in order to create whatever the company produces. As you go upstream, the environment becomes more complex. People call this the fuzzy, messy end of innovation. And this is where the truly radically different ideas are, the ones that will change the trajectory of an organisation. To be performant, this environment needs to be placed at the edge of chaos. Literally.”

Dr. Bravo said that in a science-based industry like the feed industry, every company has an R&D-based innovation model, and many ask the same people to move upstream – which does not always work. Dealing with complicated tasks requires one set of talents – sensing, analysing, categorising, responding – but to be innovative and proactive in complex environment requires a completely different set. “It takes complexity – not complicatedness – to cope with complexity.”

And it means relying on true diversity and inclusivity. “Diversity in terms of how people think, see their environment and respond to it. People comfortable with complexity will act, probe, sense, respond. They will use complex and adaptive systems to create emerging and novel practices.”

The key is connectivity

The absolute key to it all is connectivity. “Connecting complex and complicated environments – not clashing them or trying to turn one into the other – will create value and make a company proactive and successful.” He said the book The End of Certainty by Ilya Prigogine has impacted his thinking on the subject tremendously. “The author believes that we are actually at the beginning of a new scientific era, that is no longer limited to idealised and simplified situations. One that reflects the complexity of the real world of science that views us and our creativity as part of the fundamental trend present at all levels of nature.”

“Proactive and discovery models lead to disruptive development, through which you can turn complexity into a competitive advantage. Because again, dancing with complexity is possible. And I would add, do we have a choice? I don't think so.”

For more insights on #AgriVision23, visit the dedicated page on 2023 - Trouw Nutrition website