Damages from climate change are six times larger than previously thought!
???????????????? ???????????: ?????????????????????????? ?????????????? ???????? ?????????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????????? ??????????????. So as an example ?let’s ?look at US oil & gas majors’ record profits and the climate damages they cause ?– captured through the so- called Social Cost Of Carbon, SCC in short ?- based on the latest research *. We will find that ???? ???????????? ?????? ???????? ???????????? ?????? & ?????? ?????????? ???????? ???? ?????????????????????????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ?????????????? ?????????????? ???????? ??????????: the internalised profits and the externalised costs – by society and nature picking up the bill - ?are in a major imbalance that can only be resolved through Regulations, including carbon pricing. You probably have noticed that ?one of my favourite past-time with my auditor? hat is climate related number crunching, so here it comes for the US oil & gas incumbents, but applicable around the globe.
So what are the numbers telling to ?us? An excellent study **, ‘ Oil and gas majors could have paid for their share of climate loss and damage and still earned 10 trillion USD’ , ??by lead author Carl-Friedrich Schleussner at Climate Analytics last year concluded that “Global climate damages from emissions associated with the top 25 oil and gas ‘carbon majors’ between 1985 and 2018 are estimated at 20 trillion USD compared to the 30 trillion USD they earned over the same period .” … “The authors used a middle of the road estimate for the social cost of carbon (185 USD per tonne of CO2) to calculate the damage estimates. Oil majors were attributed with a third of the damages, sharing responsibility equally with governments and consumers.” … “For 2022, authors were able to gather data for a subset of seven carbon majors including Aramco, Exxon Mobil, and Shell, showing that financial gains were almost twice the estimated damages caused by their emissions that year – 497 billion USD compared to 260 billion USD.”
The new study covering SCC * by Adrien Bilal ( Harvard University) &? Diego K?nzig (Northwestern University) concluded that the ?????????????????????????? ?????????????? ???????? ?????????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????????? ??????????????. They arrive at ?a Social Cost of Carbon of 1 169 USD per ton of carbon dioxide. In their view, a 1°C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world GDP. A business as usual warming scenario leads to a present value welfare loss of 32%. Both are multiple orders of magnitude above previous estimates, but could still be underestimating the real impacts exacerbated by climate supercharged extreme weather events leading to significant loss and damages that are not even captured in GDP. Remember the fact that ?GDP is NOT a measure of wellbeing at all *** !
By looking at the US oil majors’ profit figures ( as shown below) one can ?do the maths easily with the 1 169 USD SCC figure.
?“ The [US] country’s top-10 listed operators by value, which will finish reporting their 2023 earnings this week, are on track to have amassed combined net income of $313bn in the first three years of the Biden administration, up from $112bn during the same period under Donald Trump.” according to Standard & Poors Ratings Services as reported by the Financial Times ****.
Yes, the result is stunning: the 313 bn USD three years profits came with a 4.2 times bigger cost/damages of 1 .314 trillion (430 billion per year). Annual World GDP is only 105 trillion….
(When) are we waking-up to the climate crisis and start acting accordingly?
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#climatechange #sustainability #energy #enerytransition #carbonpricing #climatepolicy
Links to articles:
* ‘ The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change’ : Global vs. Local Temperature’ ?-> https://bit.ly/4b8uBUq
** ‘ Oil and gas majors could have paid for their share of climate loss and damage and still earned 10 trillion USD’ -> https://bit.ly/3qszIwM
*** GDP will double by 2037 -> https://bit.ly/3qszIwM
?**** Oil and gas profits triple under Joe Biden even as industry decries him
Managing Partner at MS Innovation Lab
6 个月uneconomic growth
Infrastructure, Efficiency and Renewable Energy
6 个月Thanks for sharing, Zsolt Lengyel. What a lovely “us” and “them” comparison to see on Sunday. Also, what a fine example you have presented of how screwed up the status quo arguments really are on climate change, and how quickly they fall apart when every day math is combined with predicate logic everyone can understand. Bravo.