Daily Update: Threatened Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Resetting Trade Expectations

Today is Thursday, February 20, 2025, and here’s your?curated selection of essential intelligence on financial markets and the global economy?from?S&P Global.?Subscribe?to be notified of each new?Daily?Update.?

US President Donald Trump recently announced plans for 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminum, which accounted for an estimated $61 billion, or 1.8%, of total US imports in 2024. These tariffs would apply to trading partners that have been exempted from similar tariffs in the past.

If the tariffs are being weighed strategically, they should have little impact on the average US consumer. Although the new tariffs represent an estimated $11.2 billion tax increase on American importers of these metals, it only translates into a 0.037% increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index. However, this assumes no countermeasures from trading partners. Similar tariffs in 2018 led to countermeasures from Canada, China, the EU and Mexico, targeting agribusiness interests in the US. In some industries in which steel and aluminum constitute a significant percentage of input costs, such as the transportation, construction, and packaging industries, the price impact from tariffs could be much higher, and these higher costs would be passed on to US consumers.

Brazil is a major exporter of steel to the US. The US imported 7.03 million metric tons of Brazilian steel products in 2023, worth $5.42 billion, or 55.2% of Brazil's total steel export revenues that year. The Brazilian steel industry and trade officials have adopted a cautious yet optimistic outlook that they can negotiate the proposed tariffs. Japan, South Korea and Vietnam are key steel exporters to the US, while Australia exports about 10% of its 1.5-MMt aluminum production to the US each year. China exported 259,412 metric tons of aluminum products to the US in 2024, accounting for 4.1% of its total aluminum products exports. All four Asia-Pacific countries have begun preparing for negotiations with the Trump administration, as well as countermeasures in case negotiation fails. Europe, the UK and Canada would also be impacted by the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs. Canadian aluminum makes up about 64% of US demand.

S&P Global Commodity Insights suggests that greater transparency in the US aluminum market could aid price discovery in this era of tariffs, market uncertainty, stubborn inflation and geopolitics. Platts US Midwest Aluminum Market on Close (MOC) assessment process has made significant progress in achieving transparency around named bids, offers or transactions in the aluminum market. But the new tariffs create an environment of uncertainty and nervousness for steel and aluminum markets.

Today is Thursday, February 20, 2025, and here is today’s essential intelligence.

Written by Nathan Hunt.

Sustainability

Listen: How Companies Are Navigating 2025 Sustainability Challenges + A New Podcast Name!

Since the launch of this podcast in 2019, we’ve released more than 250 episodes, and the show has been downloaded nearly 2 million times around the globe. We’re celebrating these milestones and the evolution of the ESG Insider podcast by launching a new name: the All Things Sustainable podcast. Our new name reflects an idea we’ve heard repeatedly from guests over the past six seasons: Solutions to big sustainability challenges like climate change, nature and biodiversity loss and achieving a just and equitable transition require action from all sectors and all stakeholders.

—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Sustainable1

Economy

APAC Finance M&A to Get Boost From Rate Cuts, Easing Inflation After 2024 Drop

M&A activity in the Asia-Pacific financial sector is expected to recover in 2025, as falling interest rates and easing inflationary pressures create favorable conditions for dealmaking in the region. The number of deals in the region's financial sector dropped 2.4% to 560 in 2024 from 574 in 2023, dragged by slower activity in the insurance and other nonbanking financial industries, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The banking, specialty finance and payments industries recorded year-over-year increases in deal counts in 2024.

—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence

Capital Markets

Private Equity Investment in India's Healthcare Sector Lowest Since 2020

In 2024, the aggregate value of private equity and venture capital investment in India's healthcare sector fell to the lowest level since 2020. Total transaction value in the sector stood at $1.55 billion, down 29.5% from $2.20 billion in 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Total deal count was 94 for the year, up slightly from 89 in 2023.

—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence

Global Trade

EU Sanctions Relief Would Rest on Russian Accountability for Conflict

The EU is likely to continue ratcheting up its punishing sanctions on Russia, including a ban on most oil imports, unless Moscow accepts accountability for its invasion of Ukraine and a reconstruction plan is agreed, the European bloc's sanctions envoy said in an interview. As the three-year anniversary of the invasion on Feb. 24 approaches, the EU is set to announce its 16th sanctions package related to the war and further reduce its energy purchases from Russia.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

Energy & Commodities

Listen: CERAWeek Podcast | Tim Holt, Siemens Energy: Powering the Energy Transition

S&P Global Chief Energy Strategist Atul Arya speaks with Tim Holt, executive board member and labor director at Siemens Energy, about the importance of strengthening grid infrastructure to meet the energy demands of growing, dynamic economies. This conversation sets the stage for CERAWeek 2025, where global leaders will gather to address critical challenges and opportunities shaping the future of energy.

—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global

Technology & Innovation

Focus on Fixed+Mobile Bundles As Triple-, Quad-Play Trend Down in Western Europe

Out of the 13 Western Europe markets with regulator-reported data on bundled telecommunications services, eight saw a drop in triple-play and quad-play shares of total bundled subscriptions in 2023 compared to 2022. Despite this decline, fixed-mobile convergent bundles continued to rise as consumers cut the cord on legacy services to focus on connectivity. In 2023, 11 out of 17 operators with reported data saw growth in the percentage of broadband customers also subscribing to mobile services.

—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence

Events & Webinars

CERAWeek 2025 | Moving Ahead: Energy Strategies for a Complex World (Houston, Texas | March 10-14, 2025)

CERAWeek 2025 will explore how policy shifts, technological breakthroughs and geopolitical dynamics are reshaping the global energy landscape through?14 key themes. Join us March 10-14 in Houston and let’s explore how energy security, policy and AI will transform markets and infrastructure.

—Register for the conference