Daily Update: Innovation Empowering Steel Decarbonization Drive

Daily Update: Innovation Empowering Steel Decarbonization Drive

Today is?Wednesday, November 29, 2023, and here’s your?curated selection of essential intelligence on financial markets and the global economy?from?S&P Global.?Subscribe?to be notified of each new?Daily?Update.?

Measures such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism have created a financial incentive for steelmakers to decarbonize, but emissions reduction efforts in the sector continue to face stiff headwinds. Beyond industry's usual fiscal concerns or resistance to change, steelmaking has historically relied on fossil fuels not just as a heat source, but as a key ingredient in the process. Fortunately, innovative production techniques offer solutions for these roadblocks.

The most common steelmaking process — which accounts for about 70% of global steel production, according to the International Energy Agency — uses a blast furnace fueled by coke to convert iron ore to pig iron, which is then converted into liquid steel in a basic oxygen furnace before being cast into slabs and billets and made into finished steel products. The coke, which is made from metallurgical coal in a CO2-heavy process, is a key component in the blast furnace step as it causes a reduction reaction that converts the ore's iron oxide into elemental iron. This use of coke makes the release of CO2 unavoidable.?

This blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) process comprises 56% of production in the European steel industry, which contributes 5% of the region's CO2 emissions. Lawmakers are keen to reduce that number as part of overall climate initiatives and have made the steel sector subject to the EU Emissions Trading System carbon market. With yearly free carbon allowances being phased out as net-zero goals near, and Emissions Trading System permits currently trading at about €80 per metric ton of CO2, European producers will increasingly face a very real cost unless they can cut emissions.

As in other industries, hydrogen could play a key role in those efforts. In the BF-BOF process, hydrogen can be used as an auxiliary reducing agent in the blast furnace to replace some of the coke. Even more CO2 savings can be realized if hydrogen is used to produce direct-reduced iron. Typically made in a plant powered by natural gas, direct-reduced iron can be used as feedstock for a basic oxygen furnace or an electric arc furnace (EAF), eliminating the blast furnace step. Emissions reductions are maximized in both use cases by using "green hydrogen", which is produced via electrolysis using renewable energy.

Such decarbonization enhancements do not come without a price, however, and steelmakers in Europe are concerned that mounting costs from retooling their operations or buying Emissions Trading System allowances will make them uncompetitive with imports. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was introduced to level the playing field by charging imports the difference between the European carbon cost and the home market cost. Importantly, the tariff also encourages decarbonization as it only applies to steel with an emissions intensity of more than 2.1 metric tons of CO2 per metric ton of steel.

This carve-out greatly limits US steelmakers' exposure to CBAM. Unlike in Europe, most steel in the US is produced via EAFs. These so-called mini mills use heat from an electric arc to process a feedstock of scrap steel rather than iron ore, obviating the blast furnace reduction process and avoiding most of the CO2 emissions.; On average, EAFs produce 0.67 metric ton of CO2 per metric ton of steel versus an average of 2.3 metric tons of CO2 from BF-BOF, according to the World Steel Association. This disparity not only gives US producers unfettered access to the post-CBAM EU market, but also positions their product as a green alternative to traditionally produced steel. EAFs also stand to benefit from the proliferation of renewable energy. Producers can easily shrink their carbon footprint via power purchase agreements with renewable developers, utility green tariffs or unbundled renewable energy certificates.

While EAFs are more eco-friendly, they require an available pool of scrap steel and access to cheap power. Also, for certain applications, such as exposed steel for the auto industry, a product made via the BF-BOF route is still considered superior. Markets such as India are also not likely to abandon blast furnaces any time soon as the need for economic development is currently trumping clean energy aspirations. India has a net-zero target of 2070 but is aiming to nearly double steel production capacity by 2030. Given the country's iron ore and coal reserves, most of this planned expansion will likely be driven by BF-BOF mills. Fortunately, India is also the largest producer of direct-reduced iron, accounting for about 35% of global production in 2022. Building out green hydrogen infrastructure to support direct-reduced iron production would allow the country to meet emissions goals and avoid tariffs such as CBAM while still expanding its steel sector.

Today is Wednesday, November 29, 2023, and here is today’s essential intelligence.

Written by Adam Rihner.


Economy

Economic Research: Economic Outlook US Q1 2024: Cooling Off But Not Breaking

The US economy has outperformed expectations following consecutive quarters of contraction in the first half of 2022. Real GDP grew at an about 2.9% annual rate in four quarters leading up to September of this year. For the entire 2023, the economy is on track for a 2.6% growth on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis (Q4/Q4), which translates to a 2.4% annual average growth — just about the average of previous expansion period (2010-2019).

—Read the report from S&P Global Ratings

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Capital Markets

The November 2023 Rebalance of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index

The S&P 500 continued its strong performance this year after posting a 9.8% gain in a span of less than three weeks from Oct. 30 to Nov. 17, 2023. During this period, the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped approximately 45 bps1 and October’s year-over-year headline CPI inflation cooled to 3.2%. As Exhibit 1 shows, since the previous rebalance for the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index on Aug. 18, 2023, through the most recent rebalance on Nov. 17, 2023, the S&P 500 was up 3.7%, versus a decline of 0.4% for the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index.

—Read the article from S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Global Trade

Panama Canal Restrictions, ILA Negotiations Portend Increase In USWC Routings

Escalating draft and transit limitations at the drought-stricken Panama Canal, coupled with upcoming US East Coast longshoreman contract renewal talks which are expected to be contentious, point to an uptick in cargo routed through US Pacific Coast gateways in 2024. After experiencing the driest October since 1950, the Canal announced Oct. 31 new measures to control water availability, including a gradual decrease in daily transit allowances to bottom at just 18 from Feb. 1 onward, a 25% decrease from current transit capabilities.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Sustainability

Listen: Ep42: Andrew Howard On Sustainable Finance, Green Bonds And Career Paths

Andrew Howard, global head of sustainable investment at Schroders, and Christa Clapp, managing director at S&P Global Ratings, join host Joe Cass on this episode of Fixed Income in 15. The discussion focused on sustainable finance, the climate financing gap, Christa’s experience building Shades of Green and the future of green bonds.

—Listen and subscribe to Fixed Income in 15, a podcast from S&P Global Ratings

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Energy & Commodities

COP28: Pressure Builds On UAE To Deliver Consensus On Fossil Fuels

The central presence and role of the fossil fuel industry at this year's UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai has become a prominent theme of the event, with conflicts of interest threatening to overshadow climate policy actions. If world leaders fail to forge a consensus on the phaseout or phase-down of coal and oil, COP28's host UAE will likely be subject to intense criticism.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Technology & Media

November US Auto Sales Stay The Course; Projection Of 1.23 Million Units

On an unadjusted volume level, November US light vehicle sales are expected to advance mildly from the strike impacted levels of October but remain absent of any momentum. S&P Global Mobility projects sales volume of 1.23 million units for November, which would translate to a seasonally adjusted sales rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million units for the month, even with the month-prior level.

—Read the article from S&P Global Mobility

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