Daily Update: High Stakes for Energy Industry in the US Presidential Election
Today is Monday, July 22, 2024, and here’s your?curated selection of essential intelligence on financial markets and the global economy?from?S&P Global .?Subscribe?to be notified of each new?Daily?Update.?
The US presidential election has become more unpredictable in recent weeks. Donald Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt shortly before accepting the Republican nomination at the Republican National Convention. President Joe Biden, until recently the presumptive Democratic party nominee, announced that he would not be running for reelection and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite the continual upheaval in the race for president, the stakes for the US energy sector have not changed. A Harris administration is unlikely to depart from the Inflation Reduction Act, one of President Biden’s signature legislative accomplishments. On the other side, former President Trump and vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance have publicly opposed renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Even so, a recent article from S&P Global Commodity Insights suggests that little would change for much of the renewable energy industry regardless of this election’s outcome. Members of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources have been attempting to forge a bipartisan agreement on permitting for energy projects. Investors in renewable energy believe that a new administration is likely to continue many of the same pro-renewable policies.
Part of the reason renewable energy projects might continue to thrive under a second Trump administration is that many Republican-leaning states have received substantial investment under the Inflation Reduction Act . For example, Texas has become the leading US renewables market, attracting roughly $75 billion in private sector and federal funding commitments for clean energy and transportation projects.?
Carbon capture and hydrogen projects are also expected to remain. Both technologies are favored by the oil and natural gas industry since they are seen as complementary to, rather than a replacement for, fossil fuels. In addition, tariffs on Chinese solar panels are likely to stay as they have been imposed by Democrat and Republican administrations to encourage a domestic solar panel manufacturing industry.?
However, federal subsidies for the purchase of EVs would be unlikely to survive under a Republican administration as Trump and Vance have opposed EVs . The former has reportedly asked oil executives for a $1 billion campaign contribution to allow him to repeal President Biden’s pro-EV policies. Trump and Vance have also expressed support for the further development of oil and natural gas resources through fracking and expanded pipeline development.
The offshore wind industry, which received a de facto 10-year ban in the southeast US under Trump’s previous presidency, might also change under new leadership. While the ban was lifted under the Inflation Reduction Act, Trump has stated that he plans to immediately halt offshore projects upon reelection.
Today is Monday, July 22, 2024, and here is today’s essential intelligence.?
Written by Nathan Hunt.
Sustainability
Analytical Approach: Climate Transition Assessments
This article describes S&P Global Ratings' analytical approach for providing a Climate Transition Assessment (CTA). A CTA is S&P Global Ratings’ qualitative opinion of how consistent with a low carbon, climate resilient future it expects an entity's economic activities will be once the entity's planned transition changes are realized and potential material implementation risks are considered.
—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings
Economy
Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights: Blurring Long-Term Outlook
In its June economic outlook, S&P Global Ratings kept its general macroeconomic baseline largely unchanged, and it continues to expect the 2024 GDP growth to be stronger than in 2023 across most emerging markets. However, in several economies, policy-related risks have risen following elections that are generating uncertainty over reforms, fiscal trajectories and institutional frameworks. Trade seems to be improving, particularly in EM EMEA and LatAm. However, further improvement remains highly vulnerable to setbacks.
—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings
Capital Markets
Terminated Private Equity Deal Downtrend Signals Improving M&A Climate
The number of terminated private equity-backed deals globally fell 86.2% year over year to just four in the second quarter, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The decrease in terminated deals suggests a stronger closing momentum in recent periods, as buyers and sellers bridge valuation gaps more effectively.
领英推荐
—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Global Trade
Navigating Sanctions Evasion — Trade Analysis Of High-Priority Goods Exports To Russia
This paper builds on a previous analysis on the transshipment of Western-made components to Russia to further establish trade dependencies between different markets with Russia and deliver a case study on shipment data relating to Turkey. The common high-priority items (CHPIs) list will be mapped to reported statistical/customs data, as well as the bill of lading data, for a statistical analysis.
—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Energy & Commodities
Mine Development Times: The US In Perspective
The US has the second longest mine development times in the world, at almost 29 years on average from first discovery to first production. Only Zambia takes longer (34 years). This US figure assumes that currently non-operating properties in the US — projects whose development usually began decades ago but have still not become productive — start producing by 2030.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence
Technology & Innovation
Listen: MediaTalk | Season 2 Ep 22 - Warner Bros. Discovery On The Summer Games And The World
This week, MediaTalk host Mike Reynolds chats with Scott Young, group senior vice president of content, production and business operations at Warner Bros. Discovery Sports Europe. Warner Bros. Discovery is the rights holder across Europe for the Games, with Paris representing the first for the combined company. With roughly one week to go before the Opening Ceremony on July 26, Scott gives us some insights on Warner Bros. Discovery's production, distribution and advertising plans for the Paris Olympics.
—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Events & Webinars
European Structured Finance Conference 2024 (Sept. 5, 2024)
Our conference provides a unique opportunity to hear from S&P Global Ratings' senior European structured finance analysts, renowned industry experts, engage in interactive panel discussions and connect with other market participants in person.
—Register for the event from S&P Global Ratings