Daily Update: Global Economic Outlook Mixed on Tariff Concerns

Today is Monday, February 24, 2025, and here’s your?curated selection of essential intelligence on financial markets and the global economy?from?S&P Global.?Subscribe?to be notified of each new?Daily?Update.?

S&P Global Ratings Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald returned from the World Economic Forum meetings in Davos, Switzerland, this year convinced that the volatility and uncertainties of Trump’s second presidency had already been internalized and were now viewed as merely the cost of doing business. The observation was remarkable, given the globalist outlook of most Davos attendees and their aversion to the protectionist trade posture of the new administration. Despite this, pronouncements out of Davos reflected the transactional needs of global businesses and governments. Any negative reactions were likely saved for more intimate settings.

While the protectionist rhetoric of the US administration may have been somewhat priced in to markets, threats of tariffs could still destabilize global markets and upend economic projections. S&P Global Market Intelligence is projecting a slowdown in quarter-over-quarter global real GDP growth rates this year, primarily driven by tariff-related uncertainty. There is a significant downside risk that the unpredictable environment could lead to underinvestment, further weakening the global economy.

US GDP growth is still expected to slow this year, although February’s projections are more positive than January’s given solid momentum in consumer spending going into 2025. S&P Global Market Intelligence revised down the real GDP growth forecasts for Brazil, the UK and Russia, reflecting tighter monetary policy. Global Purchasing Managers’ Index figures indicate weaker growth momentum due to policy-related uncertainty.

Inflation has proven stickier than expected, despite widespread expectations that the inflationary trend was tamed. The consumer price inflation rate for the Group of Five, comprising Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa, has maintained a very gradual downward trend, lowering to 4.1% from 4.2% in December 2024. However, core inflation has picked up, which could delay the anticipated reduction of policy rates and further hamper growth.

As of late January, US economic activity and inflation outpaced that of the UK and Europe. With the US economy still showing signs of being overheated, rate reductions from the Fed are believed to be moving to the backburner.

Today is Monday, February 24, 2025, and here is today’s essential intelligence.

Written by Nathan Hunt.

Sustainability

Nordic Hydro Stocks Continue To Fall Amid Seasonal Shifts

Nordic hydropower inventories continued their downward trajectory in the week ended Feb. 16, contracting their surplus against the five-year average. Meanwhile, spot prices showed upward movements, Nord Pool data showed Feb. 20. Hydro stocks decreased to 77 TWh, or 60.6% capacity, down from 64.4% in the previous week. This marks a significant drop of 4.7 TWh week over week.

—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Commodity Insights

Read all Sustainability insights

Economy

Interest Rate Forecasts For Key Emerging Markets Revised Following Recent Change To The US Rate Forecast

S&P Global Ratings recently revised its policy rate forecasts for nine key emerging markets following a recent change in its policy rate forecast for the US. Across those nine emerging markets — Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkiye — the median shift in its rate forecasts (for the end of 2025 and the end of 2026) is a shift up by 50 basis points (bps).

—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings

Read all Economy insights

Capital Markets

Listen: CalPERs CEO Marcie Frost on Private Markets & Building Her Career

In this episode, Joe is joined by Marcie Frost, CEO of CalPERS, and Martina Cheung, CEO and president of S&P Global. Topics included Marcie’s current view of the role of private assets in CalPERS portfolio, Martina’s initiative and growth areas for 2025, Marcie’s progression from typist to CEO and Martina’s memories of breaking the gavel at the New York Stock Exchange.

—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global

Read all Capital Markets insights

Global Trade

Australia, Russia Wheat Export Price Spread Narrows to Three-Year Low

The export prices of Australian and Russian wheat have tightened to their narrowest spread in three years, driven by slow demand from China for Australian wheat and a tightening supply from Russia. A larger-than-expected Australian wheat harvest in the 2024-25 marketing year (October to September) has largely limited the upside potential to Australian wheat prices in 2025, even as the grower selling pace remains slower than desired, according to market participants.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

Read all Global Trade insights

Energy & Commodities

Paraguay Set to Emerge as a Key Player in South America's Lithium Triangle

Historically focused on gold extraction, Paraguay is now strategically positioning itself to capitalize on the burgeoning lithium market, situated between Argentina and Bolivia. This year marks a shift as the South American nation embarks on the certification and prospecting phase for lithium in the Chaco region. Vice Minister of Mining and Energy Mauricio Bejerano has reported promising developments in the ongoing certifications.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

Read all Energy & Commodities insights

Technology & Innovation

Next in Tech | Ep. 205: Agentic AI Impacts

The next phase of the AI wave is the arrival of agentic AI — where agents can take action on a user’s behalf. That’s enough of a big deal, but when the head of a tech giant says agentic is going to replace most SaaS applications, something different might be afoot. Analysts Sheryl Kingstone and Chris Marsh return to the podcast to look at the realities of this suggestion with host Eric Hanselman.

—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence

Access more insights on technology and media

Events & Webinars

TPM 2025 (Long Beach, California | March 2-5, 2025)

TPM, organized by the Journal of Commerce by S&P Global, is the premier conference for the trans-Pacific and global container shipping and logistics community. TPM annually presents the industry’s most in-depth program delving into the most pressing challenges affecting container shippers in North America and globally. The event annually attracts the most senior-level audience in this industry and is a platform for a week of essential and intensive networking, negotiations, and relationship building among the multiple parties in the international container shipping supply chain.

—Register for the conference

View all S&P Global events