Daily Pulse 2016: What We'll Write About this Year

PARIS – With every New Year come predictions for what the next 12 months will bring. They're terribly fun to write and terribly funny to look back on a year later. Who on January 1, 2015 would have bet money on Donald Trump's staying power or imagined that France would be hit by terrorism twice? (Once was likely.) Thus allow me, with the full knowledge I might regret this shortly, to partake in the yearly punditry. Here are a few topics that are sure to find their way in this column in 2016.

Elections galore 

Let's start with what we know. This year, the US will have a new president. At this point, it's still hard to picture Donald Trump as the Republican candidate, but even harder to imagine anyone else rising above. That's a pretty comfortable situation for Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic candidate, as long as Bernie Sanders doesn't replicate the meteoric rise of Barack Obama. In February 2008, I had to choose between seeing Bill Clinton or Barack Obama speak. I chose Clinton because interesting as he was, there was no way this other guy would be president... (I warned you about my predictions.) 

The United Nations will too elect a successor to Ban Ki-moon. Time is ripe for the 70-year-old organization to appoint its first female UN secretary-general after eight men have held the post. Pressure is also mounting for the selection process to be more transparent than the closed door bartering of the past, where a candidate's nationality mattered more than his qualifications in a "Who's turn is it?" system. 

For more electoral entertainment, look to FIFA's presidential election in February. Half the field is disqualified under corruption charges and the rest of the candidates have names straight out of a film noir: Tokyo Sexwale, Jér?me Champagne, Prince Ali, Gianni Infantino and Sheikh Salman. (The latter appears the frontrunner.)

A world in turmoil

Meanwhile, Brazil will host the Summer Olympics. When Rio was picked in 2009, it was to be Brazil's grand coming out on the international scene. Instead, Brazil's economy has come crashing down and President Dilma Rousseff is a hair away from impeachment. Cue the hundreds of stories on the country not being ready in time and the promises of the Lula years hanging in the air. 

In Europe, Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to poll the British on whether to exit the Union by 2017. Observers are betting on a September referendum. Brexit, the specter of terrorism and the largest refugee crisis since WWII – more than a million arrived in Europe in 2015, and more than 2 million live in Turkey alone – threaten to undo the ties that bind Europe at the very moment they're most needed. Economically, France, Spain or Greece (yes, again) could all be the next crisis. 

In Asia, 2016 is the year New Delhi will steal Beijing's thunder with Indian growth, projected above 7%, outpacing all others. (All others worldwide: no one will reach double digit growth in 2016.) Nothing seems likely to stop China's slowdown. To the East, Japan is getting back on its feet slow and steady, the glow of Abenomics less blinding than last year. If Japan and South Korea can work out the last kinks of their agreement on the issue of WWII comfort women, Asia's two major developed democracies could present a united front against China's growing clout. 

It's always the economy, stupid

The world over, one question will rule the economy: How low can oil go? With crude at $37 a barrel and not looking up, the industry, which has already cut a quarter of a million jobs in 2015, is expected to keep slashing investment. Commodities also crashed in the past year, with low demand from China and overcapacity hurting prices: I'll let smarter people figure out whether they've bottomed out. 

In such a scary landscape, businesses went into safe mode: they merged. M&A activity in 2015 reached $4.59 trillion, an all-time record, with the pharma industry especially keen. US companies rushed to announce deals, fearing that an outgoing administration would make a point about corporate taxes and antitrust rules. Hard to get a deal through regulators in an election year too. So it may be that all deals to be made have been made, and 2016 will be quieter.

Meanwhile, tech IPOs have instead been on pause: there were fewer than half as many startups going public in 2015 as in the year before. With venture capitalists falling over themselves to fund them and billion-dollar valuations becoming non-events, they have no reason to. Does that mean we're in a tech bubble? 2016 may answer that question but the consequences won't be those of 2000: it's private money here, not your 401(k).

Silicon Valley's other big topic is here to stay: it's the year of the new economy.(Be sure to follow my colleague Caroline Fairchild for continued coverage of the topic.) Will Uber be forced to make its drivers employees? Or will the Uber model continue its spread to all industries, transforming the way we work, consume and plan our lives? That, to me, is the big and exciting topic of the year. 

What else have I missed? What will you be keeping an eye on in 2016? Share with us in the comments below. And see you tomorrow for the first Daily Pulse of the year. 

Photo: Revelers gather in the Atlantic Ocean near Arpoador during the first sunrise of 2016 on January 1, 2016 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)