Daily International Grain Market View

Yesterday wheat prices skyrocketed again on US farm markets, with July contracts for Chicago and Kansas City sitting above the rarely seen $11 per bushel benchmark, while Minneapolis contract closed above $12/bu.

Particularly, SRW wheat prices were up 2.79% on the day.?

Kansas City HRW prices strengthened 4.79%.?

Spring wheat prices were 2.76% higher.?

Corn and soybean prices followed suit, both picking up modest gains of around 0.4%.

Soymeal prices also firmed into the day’s end, closing a net 0.41% higher.?

Soybean oil prices also firmed up compared to the start of the session, but stayed 0.70% red at the bell.?

From war in Ukraine to poor crop quality in the U.S. and a strengthening drought in France, there are plenty of reasons for operators to continue operating in a bullish environment.?

In energy markets, oil prices continued to edge up on Thursday on supply worries after the European Union (EU) laid out plans for new sanctions against Russia including an embargo on crude.

Pressure from a stronger dollar and a drop in global stock markets, however, kept oil prices in check.

A strong dollar, indeed, makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Wall Street stocks tumbled as investors shed risky investments, worried the Fed might hike rates more this year to tame inflation (read below in equity markets paragraph).?

Thus, Brent futures rose 76 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $110.90 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 45 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $108.26.

That was the highest close for WTI since March 25 and the highest settle for Brent since April 18.

Prices for near-term Brent and WTI oil futures are much more expensive than for future months through at least April 2023 with each future month at least $1 a barrel below the prior month.

That situation is known as backwardation.?

However, that could change as the U.S. Department of Energy would start the process sometime this fall of buying back 60 million barrels of crude oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline futures closed at their highest since settling at a record high on March 8.

U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories have fallen to a 14-year low, sending diesel prices surging and pulling crude prices higher in their wake.

Stocks have fallen in 60 of the last 96 weeks by a total of 69 million barrels since the start of July 2020, according to high-frequency data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, reversing a 49 million barrel build-up during the first wave of the COVID epidemic and lockdowns in the second quarter of 2020.

By last week, indeed, stocks had fallen to just 104 million barrels, the lowest since 2008 and before that 2005 (“Weekly petroleum status report”, EIA, May 4).

Distillate stocks are now 31 million barrels, or 23% below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average for 2015-2019.

Inventories are on course to fall even further to a projected low of just 102 million barrels before the middle of the year, with a possible range of 97 million to 105 million barrels, based on seasonal trends over the last decade.

The projected inventory outlook has tightened since the start of April, when stocks were on course to fall to a low of 107 million barrels with a range of 96 million to 114 million.

The resulting shortages of distillate are driving prices for both distillate itself and crude sharply higher and are bleeding across into shortages and higher prices for gasoline and jet fuel.

Distillate is mostly used in road and rail freight, manufacturing, construction, farming, mining, and oil and gas extraction, so consumption is very sensitive to the business cycle.

Shortages are a symptom of the strong rebound in economic activity of course.

At present, however, refiners in the United States and the rest of the world do not have enough capacity to satisfy the high level of demand.

The shortage is likely to be intensified later in 2022 and 2023 as a result of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia's petroleum exports because Russia is a major supplier of distillate fuel oil.

The EU sanctions proposal, includes phasing out imports of Russian refined products by the end of 2022 and a ban on all shipping and insurance services for transporting Russian oil.?

It however, needs unanimous backing from the 27 countries in the bloc.

In this context, given that global crude production and refining systems are already stretched to the limit, the only way to stabilise inventories and prices is for consumption to grow more slowly or fall, which will require a business cycle slowdown.

Meantime, Japan said it would face difficulties in immediately cutting off Russian oil imports.

The OPEC+ agreed to another modest monthly oil output increase for June production by 432,000 barrels per day , ignoring calls from Western nations to hike output more.

A U.S. Senate panel advanced a bill that could expose OPEC+ to lawsuits for collusion on boosting oil prices.?

In this context, oil prices climbed for a third straight session on Friday, shrugging off concerns about global economic growth as worries about tightening supplies underpinned prices.

Thus, Brent futures rose 88 cents, or 0.8%, to $111.78 a barrel by 0641 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 84 cents, or 0.8%, to $109.10 a barrel.

Brent and WTI are on track to rise for a second week in a row.

In freigth market, the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index rose to an over one-month high on Thursday, boosted by higher rates for capesize and panamax segments.

The overall index, indeed, rose 159 points, or 6.4%, to 2,644 points, the highest since March 15.

Particularly, the capesize index rose 402 points, or 17.3%, to 2,721 points.

Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, increased $3,334 to $22,569.

The panamax index gained 97 points, or 3.2%, to 3,110 points, hitting its highest since March 31.

Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, rose $870 to $27,986.

The supramax index was unchanged at 2,732 points.

In equity markets, U.S. stock indexes Thursday sold off sharply, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 14-month low.??

Soaring T-note yields sent technology stocks plunging and weighed on the overall market after the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 3-1/2 year high of 3.106%.?

Weak economic data Thursday from Europe and China signal a slowdown in global growth.

German industrial production, indeed, fell more than expected in March as pandemic restrictions and war in Ukraine disrupted supply chains, making it difficult to fill orders, official data showed on Friday.

Particularly, the Federal Statistics Office said industrial output fell 3.9% on the month after a downwardly revised increase of 0.1% in February.?

The last time there was a sharper decline was at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis in April 2020, it said.

Industry, excluding energy and construction, saw output fall 4.6% in March, according to the statistics office.

Industrial companies received 4.7% fewer orders in March - the sharpest monthly fall since last October - driven mainly by a reduction in orders from abroad.

Consequentially, the German economy is likely to stagnate in the second quarter.

The Bank of England Thursday raised its key rate by 25 bp to 1.00% and warned the UK risks recession alongside double-digit inflation.?

Sametime, China's services sector activity, contracted at the second-steepest rate on record in April, as tighter COVID curbs halted the industry, leading to sharper reductions in new business and employment, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday.

The Caixin services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 36.2 in April, the second-lowest since the survey begun in November 2005 and down from 42 in March.?

The index hit 26.5 in February 2020 during the onset of the pandemic, representing the biggest contraction in activity on record.

The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

Caixin's April composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, slumped to 37.2 from 43.9 from the previous month.

The Caixin PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in China.

The pessimistic findings from the survey, which focuses more on small firms in coastal regions, are in line with the government's official PMI, pointing to the fast deterioration in a sector that accounts for about 60% of the economy and half of urban jobs.

A sub-index for new business stood at 38.4, also the second-lowest on record and down from 45.9 the previous month, with services firms reporting the escalation of measures to contain the spread of COVID cases weighed heavily on customer demand at the start of the second quarter.

A China lockdown index compiled by Goldman Sachs increased by more than 14 points on average in April from March, as the commercial hub of Shanghai went into a city-wide lockdown, with 25 million residents confined to their homes.

The private-sector survey also showed employment declined for the fourth straight month in April, although the drop was marginal, compared with sizeable falls in activity.

Input costs meanwhile rose at a solid pace but efforts by services firms to attract more business amid lacklustre demand drove a drop in prices charged, highlighting the dwindling profit margins services providers face.

The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, said China will step up policy support but analysts say their tasks and goals will become harder unless China eases its zero-COVID policy, which it has shown few signs of doing.

Weaker than expected U.S. economic data Thursday on weekly jobless claims and Q1 nonfarm productivity also weighed on stocks.

U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims, indeed, unexpectedly rose +19,000 to 200,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 180,000.

U.S. Q1 nonfarm productivity fell -7.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of -5.3% and the steepest decline since 1947.??

Q1 unit labor costs rose +11.6% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of +10.0%.

In this context, the S&P 500 fell 3.6% to 4,146.87,?giving back Wednesday's 3% increase.

That is its biggest one-day loss in two years,

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.1% to 32,997.97.?

The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, slumped 5% to 12,317.69.

Meantime, Asian stocks followed Wall Street lower Friday as fears spread that U.S. interest rate hikes to fight inflation might stall economic growth.

Economists at BNP Paribas, indeed, still expect the Fed to keep hiking the federal funds rate until it reaches a range of 3% to 3.25%, up from zero to 0.25% earlier this year.

Australia's central bank on Friday drastically revised up forecasts for inflation, foreshadowing how far interest rates might have to rise to bring the country's cost of living crisis under control.

In its quarterly statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned core inflation could now hit 4.6% by December, a startling two percentage points higher than its previous forecast made in February.

That would be well above the RBA's 2-3% target band and inflation was only seen returning to the top of the band by mid- 2024, suggesting a lengthy tightening cycle was in store.

At the same time, unemployment was now forecast to drop further to 50-year lows of 3.6% over the year ahead and finally push up wages after years of miserly gains.

Annual wage growth is seen accelerating to 3.0% by the end of this year, from the current 2.3%, and to 3.7% by mid-2024.

It was this potent mix that led the RBA Board this week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.35%, the first increase in more than a decade, and to flag a lot more hikes ahead.

Markets are pricing in another hike to at least 0.60% in June and then a move a month to reach 2.75% by Christmas.?

The RBA's own forecasts are based on rates of 1.75% by year end and a peak around 2.5% by the end of 2023.

The RBA is confident consumers can weather these ill winds, thanks in part to an extra A$272 billion of savings households built up during the pandemic.

The central bank forecast the economy would grow a healthy 4.2% this year, before slowing to 2.0% in 2023 as rising rates, higher inflation and a moderation in house prices take a toll.

Core consumer prices in Tokyo, considered a leading indicator of Japanese price trends, rose 1.9% in April from a year earlier, marking the fastest annual pace in seven years, government data showed on Friday.

Also in India, investors are fretting that fast-paced interest rate hikes to tame surging inflation would slow global economic growth.

Indian shares dropped nearly 2% on Friday and were set for their worst week since November.?

The benchmark indexes were on track for a fourth straight weekly drop, shedding more than 6%, weighed down by a surprise interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India, foreign fund outflows and mixed corporate earnings results.

In this context, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.8% to 3,011.92 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged 3.6% to 20,034.51.?

The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo added 0.6% to 26,973.98.

The Kospi in Seoul tumbled 1.2% to 2,646.14 and Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 lurched down 2.2% to 7,200.30.

India's Sensex opened down 2% at 54,615.88.?

New Zealand and Singapore also declined.

In currency trading, the dollar rose to 130.47 yen from Thursday's 130.40 yen.?

The euro gained to $1.0539 from $1.0519.?

China's yuan tumbled to an 18-month low in both onshore and offshore markets.

The dollar index on Thursday rose by +1.130 (+1.10%) and posted a 19-year high.??

The dollar surged on the back of soaring T-note yields after the 10-year T-note yield jumped more than +13.0 bp to a 3-1/2 year high.??

The dollar also garnered support from a plunge in the British pound to a 1-3/4 year low against the dollar after the Bank of England warned the UK risks recession alongside double-digit inflation.?

On the weather side, severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat shifts eastward this evening from the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains toward the Southeast, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

Unsettled weather continues across the Northwest and northern Great Basin through Saturday.

Building heat wave to impact the Southern Plains beginning on Friday.

NOAA’s latest 8-to-14-day outlook expects seasonally wet weather to extend through the Northern and Central Plains, along with much of the upper Midwest, between May 12 and May 18.?

Expect seasonally warm weather for the eastern half of the U.S. during this time.

Meantime, per the latest updates to the U.S. Drought Monitor, out Thursday morning and covering the week through May 3, drought’s footprint is steadily being erased in the Midwest, with just 11.3% of the region now affected.?

That is compared that with three months ago, when 43.2% was affected.?

Some improvements were also noted in the High Plains, although 84.1% of the region is still affected.

On the demand side, corn export sales for the week ending 4/28 were 782,543 MT for old crop.?

That was within estimates, but still down 10% from last week.?

Regarding exports, USDA reported 1.9 MMT of corn was shipped during the week, taking the accumulated total to 40.036 MMT.?

That is down 8% from last year’s pace. New crop sales were tallied at 737,869 MT in USDA’s weekly report.?

That was near the low end of estimates and included 612k MT previously reported to China.?

China holds 2.176 MMT of new crop corn on their books, which is 44% of the 4.944 MMT total.?

Compared to last year, forward sales are up 77% at a record pace.?

FAS data showed sorghum sales of 88,065 MT for 21/22 delivery through the week.?

That was a 7-week high and up from just 212 MT of net sales during the same week last year.?

Milo exports came in at 212,223 MT for the week, up from 168k MT last week.?

That left accumulated milo shipments at 4.88 MMT through 4/28.?

As for soybean, weekly soybean bookings were reported at 734,613 MT for old crop from the week that ended 4/28.?

That was above the range of estimates going in and was a 4 week high.?

According to the weekly report 563,689 MT of soybeans were shipped during the week.?

That left the season’s total at 47.3 MMT, a 16% lag from last year’s pace.?

New crop soybean sales were 407k MT, down 30% from the previous week and at the bottom of the expected range.?

The USDA had previously announced 253k MT of new crop soybean sales to China and Unknown.?

Total forward sales were 11.1 MMT, up 63% ahead of last season’s pace.?

For the products, USDA reported 232k MT of soymeal booked for 21/22 delivery.?

That compares with 203k MT last week and 100-300k MT expected. In soybean oil, weekly export sales were 14,742 MT.?

That was mid-range of estimates, but a 5-week high.?

As for wheat, the report showed 118,757 MT of old crop was booked.?

That was in line with modest expectations, but still a 4-week high.?

USDA’s data had 2.14 MMT of wheat on the books with 4 weeks of reporting left.?

For new crop, an 11 week low of 42,449 MT was reported.?

That was also just 10% of the volume sold during the same week last year, and was below the range of estimates.?

FAS has 2.31 MMT of wheat on the books for 22/23 exports, a volume 23% lighter than last year.?

In this context, corn basis bids were steady to firm on Thursday after moving 2 to 8 cents higher across four Midwestern locations.

Soybean basis bids were largely steady across the central U.S. but did erode 22 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal while firming 11 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal.

On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+500), soybeans (+6,500), soyoil (+5,500) and CBOT wheat (+13,500) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-2,500).

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat, soybean, soymeal and corn futures contracts on Thursday, and net sellers of CBOT soyoil futures.?

From South America, most of Argentina's farming areas will have little to no rainfall over the next seven days, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday, which will help speed up the harvest of the 2021/22 corn and soybean crops.

As of may 04, soybean harvest advanceed covering 54.7% of the suitable area, registering a national average yield of 30.9 qq/Ha and an accumulated production of 26.8 MTn.

The first soybean harvest is nearing completion in the Center-North and South of Córdoba and both nuclei.

At the same time, the collection of second-class soybean frames begins to gain momentum, concentrating on the center of the agricultural area, covering 32.2% of the suitable surface and averaging a yield of 25.7 qq/Ha.

Under this scenario, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange maintained its production forecast at 42 MTn.

On the other hand, the corn harvest destined for commercial grain registered a week-on-week progress of 0.4 percentage points, raising the harvest advance to 25% of the suitable area.

The average national yield this week averaged 66.9 qq/Ha and the accumulated partial volume exceeds 12 MTn.

The harvest shows slow progress given that many producers prioritize soybean harvesting and, on the other hand, a large number of batches of the summer cereal are physiologically mature but still have high humidity in the grains.

Under this scenario, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange maintained the production forecast at 49 MTn.

Meantime, Brazil exported 11.58 million tonnes of soybeans in April, versus 16.11 million tonnes the same month last year, government data showed.

That was a year-over-year decline of 28%.

Governmental data shows Brazil also exported 703.000t of corn last month.

In Europe, dry, hot weather in France in the coming 10 days after several months of little rainfall will cause irreversible damage to grain crops, the technical institute Arvalis said on Thursday.

Between Jan. 1 and May 10 France will have received about 30% less than the average precipitation of the past 20 years, making the soil sensitive to further dry weather.

Consequentially, "there will likely be a fall in the number of ears, surely be a fall in the number of grains per ear and, depending on the weather in the following days, (there'll) probably be a fall in the grains' weight".

The regions south of Paris would be most hit.?

In the bread basket in northern France, where the soil is deeper and crop development at a later stage, partial damage could potentially be saved, if there is rain in late May or June.

The expected fall in yields would come as French farmers cut back on wheat sowings ahead of this year's harvest, with the ministry last month estimating the fall at 3.9% on 2021 and 0.7% below the average of the past five years.

In this context, benchmark September on Euronext milling wheat futures was up 10.50 euros per tonne to €398/t, after touching a contract high of 399.00 euros ($419.35) a tonne.

Corn is also taking advantage of this tension to appreciate in both the old and new harvests.?

Clearing prices thus mark new expiry highs on Euronext.?

The June 2022 maturity is also approaching the highest levels traded in session last March, namely €368.75/t.

In oilseeds, rapeseed prices are rebounding after the correction at the beginning of the week, without being able to offset the decline recorded.?

The European announcements on a possible embargo on Russian crude oil imports in the next few months are supporting this market.

Euronext quotations are also mechanically pushed up by the rapid depreciation of the euro against the dollar.?

The single currency has indeed reached its highest level since 2017 during the session!

Meantime, the crop conditions of winter cereals in France faded sligtly in the last week of April, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.

An estimated 89% of the French soft wheat crop, indeed, was in good or excellent condition in the week to May 2, down from 91% the previous week but above a score of 79% a year earlier.

For other cereals, crop ratings also slightly eased compared with the previous week.

The good/excellent scores for winter barley lost one point to 86% from 87% the previous week while 88% of the spring barley crop was estimated in good/excellent condition, down from 91% the previous week, FranceAgriMer said in a weekly cereal crop report.

Durum wheat crop conditions in good or excellent condition, remained unchanged to 83%, meantime.

For spring crops, some 84% of the expected grain maize area had been planted by May 2, compared with 60% progress the previous week and 87% seen a year ago.

Meantime, African swine fever has been found in a wild boar in Italy's capital Rome, the regional government said in a statement on Thursday.

An isolated outbreak of the deadly hog disease was reported in northwest Italy at the start of the year and the Rome case was the first time the illness had been detected in the centre of the country.

Several thousand boar are believed to live in and around Rome, foraging for food in often overflowing rubbish bins.?

Officials carried out tests after a dead boar was discovered in the north of the city, and found it had swine fever.

China suspended pork imports from Italy in January after the illness was detected in a wild boar in the Piedmont region.

The Italian government subsequently appointed a special commissioner to coordinate measures aimed at eliminating the disease.?

From the Black Sea basin, Ukraine's grain exports have reached 46 million tonnes so far in the 2021/22 July-June season, the agriculture ministry said on Thursday.

The ministry said the volume included 132,000 tonnes exported in May.?

May's exports included 121,000 tonnes of corn, 4,000 tonne of wheat and 7,000 tonnes of barley.

The ministry did not clarify how grain was delivered.

It did not give a final figure for April but had exported 763,000 tonnes through April 29.

Senior agriculture officials said last month that Ukraine exported up 300,000 tonnes of grain in March, while analyst APK-Inform said the country exported 923,000 tonnes of grain in April.

Meantime, Ukraine has imposed temporary restrictions on the supply of grain cargoes by rail in the direction of Moldova and Romania due to a large number of wagons at border crossings, the APK-Infrom consultancy said on Friday.

APK-Inform said restrictions in the direction of Romania began on May 4 and from May 5 in the direction of Moldova and Ukraine's Danube ports.

Meantime, a U.N. food agency official said on Friday that nearly 25 million tonnes of grains was stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked ports in the Black Sea.

On the other hand, Ukrainian farmers have sown 6.1 million hectares of spring grains and oilseeds as of May 5, with corn and sunflower dominating the area, Ukrainian grain traders union UGA said on Friday.

UGA said in a report the sown area included 1.98 million hectares of corn, 2.4 million hectares of sunflower, 854,000 hectares of barley, 336,000 hectares of soy beans and 186,000 hectares of spring wheat.

The union has said Ukraine planned to sow 11.45 million hectares of spring grains this year, 3.5 to 4 million hectares less than in 2021 due to the conflict.

It also said the area under spring wheat could total 190,000 hectares, 900,000 hectares of spring barley and 3.9 million hectares of corn.

Ukraine's agriculture ministry gave no 2022 grain crop outlook.?

It has said the sowing area could fall 20% this year due to fighting with Russian troops in many regions.

From the Middle Kingdom, China will sell another 314,000 tonnes of imported soybeans from its state reserves on May 13, the National Grain Trade Center said on Friday.

The volume on offer next Friday is lower than the amount of beans released during previous weekly auctions at 500,000 tonnes.

The government might have reduced the volume because of low demand in the auction, indicating poor appetite from crushers for these beans.

Beijing has been releasing soybeans from the state reserves lately, which is aimed at alleviating tight supply in the domestic market.

Imported soybean arrivals in April and May were expected to pick up from March, easing tightness in the domestic market.

From South East Asia, India's soft wheat production potential for the 2022 crop was lowered earlier this week by 6.3 million tonnes to 105 million tonnes as spiking temperatures in mid-March cut crop yields.?

Although, in the afternoon, top officials at the food ministry have dismissed claims that the country is considering curbing exports, some rumour concerning the implementation of an export ban strongly animated the wheat prices yesterday, as this country has strongly increased its export potential for the 2021/2022 season in order to meet demand in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Thus, many are forced?back to the drawing board, as the world puts an increasingly thick line on supply side.?

The double whammy is the same weather pattern has probably added to Pakistan’s import requirements.

From Australia, local wheat markets were slightly firmer by $5-10/t for current crop with the delivered port value continuing to lead the way.?

New crop canola was up $20/t in WA to $1155/t Kwinana.

On the weather side, forecast rainfall for next week is looking pretty wet for most of QLD with 50-100mm predicted (up to 150mm for CQ), 25-50mm for the northern half of NSW and southern WA, and lighter falls for southern NSW and VIC.?

It looks like SA will miss out again with less than 10mm on the 8-day forecast.

Meantime, investments are being made to overcome some of the current supply chain woes as we stare down the prospect of third bumper winter crop.?

South Australia’s Peninsula Ports has announced they have secured funding for a $250-million Port Spencer development on the Eyre Peninsula, 20 km north-east of Tumby Bay.?

The grain export facility will have the capacity to store 800,000t of grain and have a ship loading capacity of 2,400t per hour.?

Construction is set to commence in June, and it is planned to be operational in time for the 2023 harvest.?

In WA, key grain supply chain networks will receive a funding boost through a combined state and commonwealth funding commitment of $200 million as part of the Agricultural Supply Chain Improvement (ASCI) program.?

The $200 million is split between four key rail upgrade projects which have been determined in consultation with CBH, rail network manager Arc Infrastructure, grower groups and local government.

On international trade scene, Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 75,000 tonnes of animal feed barley in an international tender which closed on Thursday.

The grains can be sourced from optional origins but excluding the Black Sea region.?

The wheat was bought in four 25,000 tonne consignments, from trading house Casillo at an estimated $445.49, from Cofco at $463.79, from Casillo at $458.68 and also from Casillo at $444.68 all per tonne c&f.?

The barley was bought in three 25,000 tonne consignments, from Casillo at an estimated $436.68, from Viterra at $438.49 and from Casillo at $432.89 all per tonne c&f.?

Shipment was sought in various periods in June and July depending on origin supplied.

South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed corn.

The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is also Friday, May 6.

The corn is sought in two consignments of up to 70,000 tonnes for arrival in South Korea around Aug. 10 and Aug. 20.?

The corn can be sourced from optional origins and Black Sea region corn will also be accepted.

Amis Market Monitor - May 05, 2022

Per latest data from May's Amis Market Monitor, as for wheat, in the EU, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some pockets of dryness.?

Recent cold spells in the southern countries have slowed crop development.?

In the United Kingdom, winter wheat conditions are favourable.?

In Ukraine, the ongoing war continues to bring significant uncertainties as to the ability of the farmers to safely perform fieldwork and harvest their crops over the next few months.?

In the Russian Federation, winter wheat conditions are favourable as warm and wet weather continues.?

Sowing of spring wheat has begun in Volga under favourable conditions.?

In Turkey, below-average temperatures have slowed crop development.?

In China, conditions are favourable for both winter and spring wheat. In India, harvesting is ongoing under generally favourable conditions,

however, above-average temperatures in the States of Punjab and Haryana have led to the early maturity of the crop and thus reduced final yields.?

In the US, winter wheat throughout much of the Great Plains continues to be impacted by the long-term dryness.?

Spring wheat sowing is off to a slow but favourable start.?

In Canada, winter wheat conditions remain mixed in the central and western Prairies while favourable in Manitoba and Ontario.?

In Australia, sowing is just beginning in Queensland and Western Australia under favourable conditions.

As for corn, in Brazil, harvesting of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is continuing with reduced yields in the main producing

South region.?

The summer-planted crop (larger season) is developing under favourable conditions.?

In Argentina, harvesting of the early-planted crop (larger season) is continuing with reduced yields due to earlier hot and dry weather. Conditions of the late-planted crop (smaller season) remain favourable.

In South Africa, harvesting is ongoing under favourable conditions.

In India, harvesting of the Rabi crop is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the US, sowing is progressing slower than usual due to cool and wet weather across much of the Corn Belt region.?

In Mexico, harvesting has begun for the autumn-winter crop (smaller season).?

There is a reduction in the total sown area compared to the five-year average.?

In the EU, sowing is ongoing under generally favourable conditions,

albeit delayed in most areas due to unseasonably cool weather.?

In Ukraine, sowing is progressing under the uncertainties of war with a substantial reduction in total sown area forecasted for this season.?

In the Russian Federation, sowing has begun under favourable conditions.?

In China, the sowing of the spring-planted crop continues under favourable conditions.

As for soybeans, in Brazil, harvesting is wrapping up under poor conditions in some regions.?

Despite an increase in sown area compared to last season, a reduction in yields is expected due to a lack of rainfall associated with high temperatures during the reproductive stages in the South region and Mato Grosso do Sul state.?

In Argentina, harvesting is progressing for the early-planted crop

(larger season) and beginning for the late-planted crop (smaller

season) under mixed conditions.?

The impact of dry conditions throughout the growing season has impacted yields, particularly in Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and San Luis.?

The yields for the late-planted crop (smaller season) are now at risk due to frosts.

In the US, sowing is off to a slow start due to due to cool and

wet weather.?

In Ukraine, sowing is progressing under the uncertainties of the ongoing war.

In this context, the FAO slightly cut its projection of world wheat production in 2022 to 782 million tonnes, from 784 million last month.

The forecast factored in an expected 20% reduction in the harvested area in Ukraine and a projected decline in output in Morocco because of a drought in the north African state.

With almost all crops harvested, FAO's world cereal production forecast for 2021 was unchanged at 2.799 billion tonnes, 0.8% up on 2020 levels.

The agency slightly increased its projection of global cereals trade in the 2021/22 marketing year to 473 million tonnes, up 3.7 million tonnes from last month's forecast but 1.2% below the 2020/21 record level.

FAO said the upward revision reflected stronger exports from Russia based on continued shipments in April, mostly to Egypt, Iran and Turkey.

FAO World Food Price Index

April 2022

World food prices eased slightly in April after hitting a record high in March, but global food security remained a concern because of the difficult market conditions, U.N. food agency said on Friday.

The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, indeed, averaged 158.5 points last month versus an upwardly revised 159.7 for March.

The March figure was previously put at 159.3.

Particularly, the agency's cereal price index fell 0.7% in April after a 17% jump in March.?

While maize prices dropped 3.0%, wheat prices rose 0.2%.?

FAO's vegetable oil price index dropped 5.7% in April, as demand rationing pushed down prices for palm, sunflower and soy oils.

Sugar prices increased 3.3%, the meat price index rose 2.2% and the dairy index added 0.9%.

The April FAO World food price index, still was 29.8% higher than a year earlier.

FAO warned in March that food and feed prices could rise by up to 20% as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, raising the risk of increased malnutrition.

Meantime, the UN Secretary General's announcements on the world food crisis once again highlighted a very tense context for the coming campaign in the face of numerous uncertainties about availability in the Black Sea basin and especially its accessibility.?

That's all.

To all of you, I wish you a good day.

Author: Sandro F. Puglisi??

Make love ... not war ...

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