Daily global market review

The market had a varied performance today, starting with early declines that pushed the S&P 500 to its lowest level in almost two months, and the Nasdaq to its lowest point in ten weeks. However, a minor upward shift began around mid-morning with no specific news catalyst. A notable surge occurred in the final ten minutes of trading, pushing the Nasdaq into positive territory for the only time during the session. In the end, the S&P 500 closed without significant changes, the Nasdaq experienced a 0.2% decline, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a 0.1% increase. The Russell 2000 outperformed slightly, achieving a 0.5% gain today.

The initial market weakness was influenced by losses in large-cap stocks, concerns about China following Evergrande's Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection filing in the U.S., and continued downward momentum from the ongoing August selling. Shortly after the market opened, decliners surpassed advancers by a narrow margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq. By the market's close, advancers were slightly ahead of decliners at the NYSE and maintained a similarly slight lead at the Nasdaq. Out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, six closed in positive territory. The energy sector led with a gain of 0.9%, while communication services closed as the weakest, down 1.0%.

Regarding earnings, Deere (DE 397.02, -22.14, -5.3%) faced a 5.0% decline despite surpassing EPS expectations for Q3 and raising net income guidance for the fiscal year for the third consecutive quarter. This drop in value pushed DE shares below their 50-day (417.34) and 200-day (408.14) moving averages, reaching a low point for seven weeks. Despite today's losses, Deere's value is still up 14.8% since the beginning of June. On the other hand, Applied Materials (AMAT 142.66, +5.07, +3.7%) recorded gains following its earnings report. AMAT exceeded Q3 expectations and provided an above-consensus EPS guidance for Q4.

In the treasury market, yields across the curve saw gains. The 2-year note yield fell by five basis points to 4.91%, while the 10-year note yield decreased by six basis points to 4.25%. No significant U.S. economic data was released today, and the upcoming Monday session is also expected to be devoid of scheduled economic releases.

The Dow in the United States reached 34,500.66, marking a 0.07% increase or a rise of 25.83 points. In contrast, the S&P 500 decreased slightly by 0.01%, settling at 4,369.71 after a decline of 0.65 points. The NASDAQ also witnessed a decrease of 0.20%, reaching 13,290.78 following a drop of 26.16 points. The VIX in the United States saw a notable decline of 3.30% and reached 17.30 after decreasing by 0.59 points. Conversely, the Russell 2000 showed positive movement, rising by 0.51% or 9.36 points to reach 1,859.42.

Canadian indices displayed minor changes, with the S&P/TSX Composite experiencing a 0.03% increase to reach 19,818.39 after a gain of 6.16 points. The S&P/TSX 60, on the other hand, faced a marginal decline of 0.01% as it reached 1,187.07 following a decrease of 0.09 points. Moving to Brazil's BOVESPA, the index showed a 0.37% increase, climbing by 426.22 points to reach 115,408.52. In Chile, the S&P IPSA experienced a slight increase of 0.03% to reach 6,133.26 after a gain of 1.76 points. Meanwhile, Mexico's S&P/BMV IPC declined by 0.01% as it reached 53,194.39, marking a decrease of 7.05 points.

In Europe, indices displayed mixed movements. The STOXX Europe 50 faced a decline of 0.53%, reaching 3,885.39 following a drop of 20.82 points. Similarly, the STOXX Europe 600 fell by 0.61% to settle at 448.44 after a decrease of 2.75 points. The FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom experienced a 0.65% decline, reaching 7,262.43 as it dropped by 47.78 points. Italy's FTSE MIB witnessed a decrease of 0.42%, reaching 27,761.98 after a drop of 117.37 points. France's CAC 40 index also experienced a decline, dropping by 0.38% to reach 7,164.11 following a decrease of 27.63 points.

Turning to Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 in Japan faced a 0.55% decrease, reaching 31,450.76 after a drop of 175.24 points. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index experienced a notable decline of 2.05%, reaching 17,950.85 after a decrease of 375.78 points. The Shanghai Composite in China faced a decrease of 1.00%, reaching 3,131.95 following a drop of 31.79 points. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 displayed a minor increase of 0.03% to reach 7,148.10 after a gain of 2.10 points. South Korea's KOSPI declined by 0.61%, reaching 2,504.50 as it dropped by 15.35 points. Similarly, Taiwan's Taiwan SE index experienced a 0.82% decrease, reaching 16,381.31 after a drop of 135.35 points.

The market indices and their corresponding data in India as of August 18th are as follows: The BSE MidCap index stands at 30,265.32, with the highest point being 30,442.27 and the lowest at 30,215.97. It shows a decrease of -0.41%, with a change of -124.78. The BSE Sensex is at 64,948.66, reaching a high of 65,175.32 and a low of 64,754.72. This index reflects a decline of -0.31%, with a change of -202.36. The BSE SmallCap index records 35,283.32, with a high of 35,508.70 and a low of 35,208.32. It has a decrease of -0.23%, with a change of -80.96. The India VIX is noted at 12.1425, ranging from a high of 12.4925 to a low of 10.7875. It exhibits a -0.80% decrease, with a change of -0.0975. The NIFTY Midcap 100 index holds a value of 37,815.40, peaking at 38,003.20 and dipping to 37,715.15. It reflects a -0.21% decline, with a change of -80.10. The NIFTY Smallcap 100 index records 11,683.35, with a high of 11,778.50 and a low of 11,657.90. It shows a decrease of -0.53%, with a change of -61.95. The Nifty smallcap 50 index is noted at 5,312.40, ranging from a high of 5,356.05 to a low of 5,290.30, indicating a -0.54% decrease and a change of -28.95.

In the realm of cryptocurrencies, indices faced some changes. The Nasdaq Crypto Index experienced a 0.62% decrease, reaching 1,513.00 after a drop of 9.46 points. Bitcoin saw a decline of 2.35%, reaching 26,041.00 following a decrease of 627.00 points. Ether also witnessed a decrease of 1.38% to reach 1,661.20 after a decline of 23.20 points. Litecion faced a slight decrease of 0.77%, reaching 64.37 after a drop of 0.50 points. XRP, on the other hand, remained relatively stable, experiencing a minor 0.11% increase to reach 0.51.

Turning to bond and rate data, various yields displayed changes. The 3 Month Treasury yield experienced a slight increase of 0.003 basis points to reach 5.293%. The 2 Year Treasury yield saw an increase of 0.013 basis points, reaching 4.945%. Conversely, the 5 Year Treasury yield declined by 0.025 basis points to reach 4.394%. The 10 Year Treasury yield experienced a notable decrease of 0.040 basis points, reaching 4.251%. Similarly, the 30 Year Treasury yield declined by 0.018 basis points to reach 4.380%.

Finally, currency rates experienced shifts. The Euro to US Dollar rate increased by 0.22% to reach 1.0894. The British Pound to US Dollar rate faced a marginal decline of 0.10%, reaching 1.2734. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar rate saw a slight increase of 0.22%, reaching 1.3570. The US Dollar to Swiss Franc rate increased by 0.45% to reach 0.8820. Conversely, the US Dollar to Japanese Yen rate faced a 0.27% decrease, reaching 145.4195.

• FTCH (Farfetch Ltd. Class A) has a current price of 2.61, experiencing a negative change of -2.15, resulting in a significant % change of 45.17%. The trading volume for this stock is 167 million, and its 52-week range is between 2.50 and 12.89.
• TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) is priced at 215.49, showing a decrease of -3.73, equivalent to a slight % change of 1.70%. Trading activity for this stock amounts to 136 million, and its 52-week range spans from 101.81 to 313.80.
• KVUE (Kenvue, Inc.) has a current price of 22.87, indicating a positive change of +0.09, corresponding to a marginal % change of 0.40%. The stock has been traded at a volume of 94 million, and its 52-week range lies between 22.36 and 27.80.
• PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A) is priced at 14.40, showing an increase of +0.25, leading to a % change of 1.77%. The trading volume for this stock is 70 million, and its 52-week range is from 5.92 to 20.24.
• NIO (NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A) is priced at 10.67, with a decrease of -0.83, resulting in a substantial % change of 7.22%. The trading volume for this stock is 68 million, and its 52-week range spans from 7.00 to 22.74.
• MPW (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.) has a current price of 6.93, experiencing a decrease of -0.57, leading to a notable % change of 7.60%. Trading activity for this stock amounts to 63 million, and its 52-week range is between 6.38 and 16.65.
• AAPL (Apple Inc.) is priced at 174.49, indicating an increase of +0.49, resulting in a minor % change of 0.28%. The stock has been traded at a volume of 61 million, and its 52-week range lies between 124.17 and 198.23.
• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) is priced at 105.45, showing an increase of +1.01, leading to a % change of 0.97%. The trading volume for this stock is 60 million, and its 52-week range is from 54.57 to 132.83.
• NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) is priced at 432.99, indicating a decrease of -0.44, resulting in a minimal % change of 0.10%. Trading activity for this stock amounts to 58 million, and its 52-week range spans from 108.13 to 480.88.
• AMC (AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Class A) has a current price of 4.09, showing an increase of +0.05, leading to a % change of 1.24%. The trading volume for this stock is 51 million, and its 52-week range is between 3.18 and 13.57.

The Bloomberg Commodity index has reached a value of 234.61, marking an increase of 1.12, equivalent to a positive % change of 0.48%. The UBS Bloomberg CMCI stands at 1,522.48, with a rise of 7.36, indicating a % change of 0.49%. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB is at 308.57, reflecting a climb of 1.26, resulting in a % change of 0.41%. Meanwhile, the Rogers International index has reached 3,758.23, showing an uptick of 22.44, corresponding to a % change of 0.60%. The S&P GSCI is at 3,506.70, exhibiting a gain of 22.50, leading to a % change of 0.65%.

Shifting to the energy sector, WTI Crude Oil (Nymex) stands at 81.25 USD/bbl., with a rise of 0.86, indicating a % change of 1.07%. Brent Crude (ICE) is priced at 84.83 USD/bbl., with a gain of 0.71, leading to a % change of 0.84%. RBOB Gasoline (Nymex) stands at 282.32 USd/gal., showing an increase of 0.15, corresponding to a % change of 0.05%. Natural Gas (Nymex) is at 2.55 USD/MMBtu, indicating a decrease of 0.07, resulting in a % change of -2.67%. Heating Oil (Nymex) is at 315.97 USd/gal., with a rise of 6.59, leading to a % change of 2.13%.

In the realm of precious and industrial metals, Gold (Comex) is priced at 1,916.50 USD/t oz., reflecting an increase of 1.30, equivalent to a % change of 0.07%. Gold Spot (XAUUSD:CUR) stands at 1,889.31 USD/t oz., with a decrease of 0.12, resulting in a % change of -0.01%. Silver (Comex) is priced at 23.06 USD/t oz., showing a rise of 0.02, corresponding to a % change of 0.08%. Copper (Comex) stands at 374.05 USd/lb., reflecting an increase of 1.10, resulting in a % change of 0.29%. Platinum Spot (XPTUSD:CUR) is at 914.58 USD/t oz., exhibiting a gain of 17.69, leading to a % change of 1.97%.

Finally, in the realm of agriculture, Corn (CBOT) is priced at 493.00 USd/bu., showing an increase of 7.25, corresponding to a % change of 1.49%. Wheat (CBOT) stands at 639.00 USd/bu., reflecting a rise of 23.75, resulting in a % change of 3.86%. Cocoa (ICE) is priced at 3,449.00 USD/MT, indicating a decrease of 39.00, leading to a % change of -1.12%. Cotton #2 (ICE) stands at 83.62 USd/lb., with a minor increase of 0.01, resulting in a % change of 0.01%. Live Cattle (CME) is at 178.83 USd/lb., showing a gain of 0.50, leading to a % change of 0.28%.

Stock Market Trends and Volatility:

• Canadian equities are relatively stable, but concerns about China's property sector and rising interest rates have led to a lower finish for the S&P 500 for the third consecutive week.
• The historical trend of August and September being less favorable for stocks suggests the possibility of deeper pullbacks and higher market volatility during this period.
• Despite short-term volatility, the data suggest that the overall trajectory for equities remains upward due to the positive evolution of growth and inflation.

U.S. Economy and Interest Rates:

• U.S. economic data have been consistently better than expected, indicating a stronger economy.
• This resilient economic performance makes a soft-landing scenario more likely, but also implies that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period to control potential inflationary pressures.
• The rise in yields across the curve is impacting equity valuations, but the prediction is that core inflation will moderate in the coming months. This suggests that the Fed might either enact one more rate hike or remain on the sidelines, helping to limit the increase in yields.

Bond Market Outlook:

• The bond market, particularly long-term bonds, is sensitive to interest rate changes and has underperformed.
• The prediction is that if economic growth softens, the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC) might consider rate cuts, possibly in 2024.
• Long-term bonds, which have been adversely affected by rising rates, might experience a rebound later in the year if economic conditions shift.

China's Property Crisis and Impact on Markets:

• Concerns about China's economic data and property sector are affecting investor sentiment and emerging-market equities.
• The bankruptcy filing of the heavily indebted property developer Evergrande Group and warnings of losses in the sector are further pressuring investor sentiment.
• China's efforts to stimulate the economy might help stabilize it, but until these measures take effect, global equities and commodity prices (especially those that China is a major consumer of) could remain sensitive to China's situation.

MSCI World Index and Global Impact:

• The MSCI world index has seen its worst weekly decline since March, suggesting that global markets are currently facing a notable downturn.
• The index's decline highlights the broader impact of the factors mentioned, including concerns about China and rising interest rates.

Jackson Hole Symposium:

• The upcoming Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium is expected to provide insights into how policymakers are considering the future path of interest rates.
• This event could offer valuable information on the potential direction of monetary policy, which could influence market sentiment and investor decisions.