Daily Energy Market Update 3-13-2025

Crude is down 41 cents????? RB is down 0.15 cents????? ULSD is down 0.60 cents

Overview

Crude oil is down this morning, as trade and economic concerns and the IEA warning on demand weigh on prices. But, the tone in the prior 24 hours was a more positive one fueled by the larger than expected draws in products seen in yesterday's DOE stats.

The IEA, in today's monthly report, reduced their 2025 global demand growth estimate by 70 MBPD to 1.03 MMBPD. They also reduced their 2024 demand growth figure by 40 MBPD to 830 MBPD. Non-OPEC+ production is set to rise by 1.5 MMBPD in 2025, led by the Americas. The IEA projects world oil supply to outstrip demand by 600 MBPD in 2025, up 100 MBPD from its previous forecast. If extra voluntary cuts are fully unwound according to the latest schedule, OPEC+ could add 400 MBPD to the IEA's 2025 supply forecast, it said. (Platts) The IEA says that trade tensions weigh on oil demand and they warn of a possible larger supply surplus.

President Trump threatened on Wednesday to escalate a global trade war with further tariffs on European Union goods, as major U.S. trading partners said they would retaliate for trade barriers already erected by the U.S. president. (Reuters)

Worries about flagging jet fuel demand weighed further on markets, with JP Morgan analysts saying that U.S. Transportation Security Administration data showed "passenger volumes for March have decreased by 5% year-over-year, following stagnant traffic in February". (Reuters)

The DOE stats were considered supportive as the oil build was smaller than expected and gasoline and diesel draws were larger than expected. Crude inventories in the SPR rose to their highest level since 2022. One analyst suggested the lower crude import number seen in the data was " likely the result of tariff trepidation hitting Canadian flows." Gasoline demand rose to its best level since November. Gasoline demand rose by 305 MBPD to a strong 9.182 MMBPD. This was better than the prior 2 years demand of 9.044 and 8.594 MMBPD. Gasoline supplies fell by 5.732 MMBBL, well over a forecast for a draw of 1.9 MMBBL. Distillate demand fell by 93 MBPD to 3.898 MMBPD. But this is still better than the past 2 years demand of 3.375 and 3.736 MMBPD. Distillate supplies fell by 1.559 MMBBL, beating a forecast for a fall of 0.8 MMBBL. One negative in the DOE data was the rise in net crude imports of 503 MBPD, fueled by the drop in crude exports of 846 MBPD. This increase in crude supply was offset somewhat by the increase in demand seen in the higher crude input to refineries of 321 MBPD.? (Bloomberg)

Technicals

RB momentum has turned positive today. ULSD and WTI momentums are also positive.

RB spot futures have resistance at 2.1744-2.1755. Support lies at 2.1064-2.1087.

ULSD for April sees support at 2.1649-2.1667 and resistance at 2.2487-2.2494.

WTI spot futures have support at 66.12-66.15 and then at the double bottom at 65.22-65.27. Resistance lies at 68.22 and then at 69.13-69.16.

The Gasoil DC chart has a rollover gap from the March contract's expiration yesterday. That gap lies from April's high today of 659.00 up to March's low yesterday of 665.00. Support basis the DC chart is seen at 642.50-643.25. Resistance lies at 675.75-676.00.

Natural Gas--NG is down 11.9 cents

NG futures have turned lower and have seen a test of $4.00 with? warmer weather forecasts weighing.

On Wednesday, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 111.6 BCF/d this week to 104.3 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were down a total of 1.3 BCF/d from the forecasts seen Monday. LSEG estimated there would be 198 heating degree days over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, down from the 213 HDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal level is 243 HDDs for this time of year. Forecaster Maxar Technologies said Wednesday that temperatures are expected to be well above normal for the Midwest and the eastern part of the US for March 17-21.?

The EIA gas storage data due out today is seen as a draw of 54 BCF as per the WSJ survey. This compares to last year's draw of 19 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 56 BCF.

Comments seen the past 24 hours describing the NG market are : " "The market is now finally coming back to realistic pricing". "Natural Gas Tumbles In Overdue Pullback As Bearish Catalysts Finally Catch Up To High-Flying Commodity;"? "Warming patterns ‘too much to ignore’".

BP is set to ramp up U.S. natural gas production in its onshore shale operations following the recent rise in domestic gas prices,? the CEO? said on Tuesday. (Reuters)? A? further comment re natural gas heard at this week's CERA conference: " Pipeline capacity has not caught up with production after a series of project cancellations over the last eight years, according to Toby Rice, CEO of EQT, the No. 2 U.S. gas producer. This has contributed to a 35% rise in electricity costs for U.S. consumers in the last four years, he said. We have the gas, we just don’t have the pipelines to get it to places, so now you see a situation where it doesn’t matter how much we produce,” Rice added."? ONEOK's CEO said:" Moving gas from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico and other shale regions in the Northeast U.S. or Midcontinent for LNG exports requires significant pipeline investment."

In TTF European natural gas, investment funds continued to cut their net long in the TTF market over the last week, selling 48.1TWh, leaving them with a net long of 126.7TWh. That’s the smallest net long held since May 2024. The move over the last week was driven by fresh shorts entering the market, rather than longs liquidating. The TTF continues to move up today after bottoming last Friday. WSJ reporting cites colder weather and low inventories for supporting the price move. "Storage caverns in the EU are currently 35.9% full, down from 61% in the year-earlier period and below the five-year average of 47%."

Technically NG spot futures have negative momentum as they have broken support at the 4.05 area. Next support lies at 3.906-3.914 and then at 3.808-3.814. Resistance comes in at 4.172-4.173 via the April 60 minute chart.

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