Daily Dose of Real Estate for November 26

The real estate landscape continues to evolve with significant developments across residential, commercial, and mortgage sectors. Cities are innovating to address housing shortages, while commercial real estate faces foreclosure pressures. The residential market shows resilience with strong demand projected for 2025, and Ginnie Mae introduces a new pool type to support affordable housing. Meanwhile, construction costs and labor shortages present ongoing challenges across the industry. These developments underscore the dynamic nature of the real estate market as we approach the end of 2024.

Key Takeaways:

• Cities are streamlining processes to convert unused office buildings into housing
• Commercial real estate foreclosures are on the rise, indicating sector stress
• Zillow predicts continued strong demand for homes in 2025, with potential for increased inventory
• Ginnie Mae introduces a new pool type to support affordable housing initiatives
• JLL reports on construction industry challenges, including rising costs and labor shortages
• Adaptive reuse of commercial properties emerges as a trend to watch

Residential Real Estate Markets

Zillow's 2025 Housing Predictions: A Look Ahead

Zillow has released its highly anticipated 2025 housing predictions, offering a glimpse into the potential future of the residential real estate market. According to their forecast, the housing market is expected to remain robust, with strong demand persisting despite challenges. Here are the key points from Zillow's predictions Zillow Research:

• Sustained Demand: Zillow anticipates that demand for homes will remain strong in 2025, driven by demographic factors and evolving preferences post-pandemic.
• Inventory Improvements: There's potential for an increase in housing inventory, which could provide some relief to the tight market conditions experienced in recent years.
• Generational Shifts: Millennials and Gen Z are expected to play a significant role in shaping housing demand, with many entering prime home-buying years.
• Technology Integration: The use of AI and other technologies in home search and buying processes is predicted to become more prevalent, potentially streamlining transactions.
• Affordability Challenges: While inventory may improve, affordability is likely to remain a concern, especially if mortgage rates stay elevated.
• Suburban Appeal: The trend of homebuyers seeking more space in suburban areas is expected to continue, though with renewed interest in properties that offer easy access to urban amenities.
• Sustainability Focus: An increased emphasis on energy-efficient and sustainable homes is anticipated, reflecting growing environmental consciousness among buyers.

These predictions suggest a dynamic residential market in 2025, with opportunities and challenges for both buyers and sellers. The potential increase in inventory could help balance the market, but affordability will remain a key issue to watch.

Housing Affordability Challenges Persist

The housing market continues to grapple with affordability issues as we close out 2024. According to the latest data from the AEI Housing Center, the imbalance between median incomes and home prices remains a significant concern for potential homebuyers AEI Housing Center. This disparity is particularly pronounced in major metropolitan areas, where the gap between wages and housing costs continues to widen.

Existing Home Sales Activity

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that existing home sales have shown some resilience in the face of high mortgage rates. However, inventory constraints continue to put upward pressure on prices in many markets National Association of Realtors. The limited supply of homes for sale is particularly acute in the entry-level segment, creating challenges for first-time homebuyers.

New Construction Trends

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that new home construction has seen a slight uptick in recent months, as builders respond to the ongoing demand for housing NAHB Housing Market Index. However, builders continue to face challenges related to labor shortages and elevated material costs, which are impacting the pace of new home deliveries.

Mortgage Markets

Mortgage Rates Update

As of the latest report from Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.90%, reflecting a slight decrease from previous weeks but still significantly higher than historical averages MortgageNewsDaily. This elevated rate environment continues to impact both purchase and refinance activity in the mortgage market.

Mortgage Application Trends

The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 20, 2024, shows a mixed picture. While purchase applications have shown some resilience, refinance activity remains subdued due to the higher rate environment Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA notes that many homeowners who locked in lower rates in previous years are hesitant to enter the market at current rates.

Ginnie Mae Introduces New Pool Type for Affordable Housing

In a significant development for the mortgage market, Ginnie Mae has announced the introduction of a new pool type designed to support affordable housing initiatives. The new "AH" (Affordable Housing) pool type will be available for issuance beginning January 1, 2025 Ginnie Mae.

Key aspects of this new pool type include:

• Focus on Affordability: The AH pool is specifically designed to finance mortgages for properties that meet certain affordability criteria.
• Expanded Eligibility: The pool will include loans for properties with up to four units, broadening the scope of affordable housing options.
• Income Restrictions: Properties financed through this pool must be occupied by borrowers with incomes at or below 100% of the area median income.
• Market Impact: This initiative is expected to increase liquidity for affordable housing mortgages, potentially leading to more favorable terms for eligible borrowers.
• Investor Appeal: The new pool type may attract investors interested in supporting affordable housing initiatives while maintaining the government guarantee associated with Ginnie Mae securities.

This move by Ginnie Mae represents a significant step in addressing affordable housing challenges through targeted mortgage market innovations. It has the potential to increase access to homeownership for moderate-income families and support the development of affordable housing options.

Government and GSE Updates

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have announced updates to their conforming loan limits for mortgages acquired in calendar year 2025, reflecting changes in home prices across the country Federal Housing Finance Agency. These adjustments aim to ensure that the GSEs can continue to support a wide range of homebuyers in various markets.

Commercial Real Estate Markets (including Multifamily)

Cities Cut Red Tape for Office-to-Housing Conversions

In a significant development for urban real estate, cities across the United States are taking proactive steps to facilitate the conversion of unused office buildings into much-needed housing. This trend represents a creative solution to address both the housing shortage and the surplus of vacant office space resulting from pandemic-induced work pattern changes New Hampshire Bulletin.

Key aspects of this initiative include:

• Streamlined Approval Processes: Cities are simplifying and expediting the approval procedures for conversion projects, reducing bureaucratic hurdles.
• Zoning Flexibility: Many urban areas are revising zoning laws to allow for mixed-use developments in formerly commercial-only zones.
• Financial Incentives: Some municipalities are offering tax breaks or grants to developers willing to undertake conversion projects.
• Focus on Affordability: Many cities are incorporating requirements for affordable housing units within these conversion projects.
• Sustainability Benefits: Repurposing existing structures aligns with sustainability goals by reducing the need for new construction.

This trend could have far-reaching implications for urban landscapes, potentially revitalizing downtown areas while addressing housing shortages. However, challenges remain, including the technical complexities of converting office spaces to residential use and ensuring the economic viability of such projects.

Commercial Real Estate Foreclosures on the Rise

In a concerning development for the commercial real estate sector, foreclosures are soaring, indicating significant stress in certain segments of the market. According to recent data, commercial property foreclosures have reached their highest levels since the Great Recession Yahoo Finance.

Key points from this trend include:

• Sector Disparities: The increase in foreclosures is not uniform across all commercial real estate types. Office and retail properties are particularly affected, while industrial and multifamily sectors show more resilience.
• Regional Variations: Some geographic areas are experiencing higher rates of foreclosure than others, reflecting local economic conditions and real estate market dynamics.
• Interest Rate Impact: The sustained high-interest-rate environment has put pressure on property owners, especially those facing loan maturities or refinancing needs.
• Valuation Challenges: Many commercial properties are facing valuation pressures, complicating refinancing efforts and potentially leading to more foreclosures.
• Investor Opportunities: The increase in distressed properties could create opportunities for investors looking to acquire assets at discounted prices.

This trend underscores the ongoing challenges in the commercial real estate market, particularly in the office and retail sectors. It also highlights the importance of adaptive strategies for property owners and the potential for market restructuring in the coming years.

Construction Industry Outlook: Rising Costs and Labor Shortages

JLL's latest Construction Outlook report highlights significant challenges facing the construction industry, which have far-reaching implications for both commercial and residential real estate markets. The report indicates that construction costs continue to rise, driven by labor shortages and material price increases, potentially impacting project timelines and budgets across the real estate sector JLL.

Key findings from the JLL report include:

• Labor Shortages: The construction industry continues to face a significant shortage of skilled workers, leading to increased labor costs and potential project delays.
• Material Cost Fluctuations: While some material prices have stabilized, others remain volatile, contributing to overall cost uncertainties in construction projects.
• Regional Variations: Construction cost increases vary by region, with some markets experiencing more significant escalations than others.
• Technology Adoption: The industry is increasingly turning to technological solutions to mitigate labor shortages and improve efficiency, though implementation challenges remain.
• Sustainability Focus: There's a growing emphasis on sustainable construction practices, driven by both regulatory requirements and market demand.

These construction industry challenges have significant implications for real estate development across all sectors, potentially affecting project feasibility, timelines, and overall market supply.

Industrial and Logistics Strength

The industrial and logistics real estate sector continues to outperform other commercial segments, driven by the ongoing growth of e-commerce and the need for efficient supply chain networks JLL. Demand for last-mile distribution centers and large-scale warehouses remains strong, although some markets are showing signs of potential oversupply.

CMBS / REIT Markets

CMBS Performance

The Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market has shown mixed performance across different property types. While industrial and multifamily-backed securities have generally performed well, office and retail-backed securities continue to face challenges Trepp. Investors are closely monitoring delinquency rates and potential maturity defaults, particularly in the office sector. The rising commercial foreclosures may further impact CMBS performance, especially for securities backed by office and retail properties.

REIT Market Trends

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have demonstrated varied performance across sectors. Industrial and data center REITs continue to show strength, while office and some retail REITs face ongoing pressures NAREIT. Dividend yields for many REITs remain attractive to investors seeking income in the current interest rate environment. However, the increasing commercial foreclosures may impact REIT valuations, particularly for those heavily invested in office and retail properties.

Looking Ahead: Navigating a Shifting Landscape

As we approach the end of 2024, the real estate market presents a complex picture with both challenges and opportunities across various sectors. The introduction of Ginnie Mae's new affordable housing pool type, alongside cities' efforts to convert office spaces to residential units, demonstrates innovative approaches to addressing housing needs. Meanwhile, the rise in commercial foreclosures and ongoing construction industry challenges signal persistent headwinds in certain market segments.

For the residential sector, Zillow's 2025 predictions suggest a market that will remain active, with potential improvements in inventory but ongoing affordability challenges. The continued strong demand, coupled with demographic shifts and technological advancements, points to a dynamic market in the coming years.

In the commercial sector, the contrasting trends of adaptive reuse and rising foreclosures highlight the need for flexible strategies. Property owners, investors, and developers will need to be agile, potentially repurposing assets or exploring new market segments to maintain viability. The construction industry's challenges, including rising costs and labor shortages, add another layer of complexity to real estate development across all sectors.

Key factors to watch in the coming months include:

• The impact of Ginnie Mae's new AH pool type on affordable housing financing and development
• The pace and success of office-to-residential conversion projects in major cities
• The influence of rising commercial foreclosures on property values and investment strategies
• The ongoing effects of construction industry challenges on project timelines and costs
• The potential for further policy interventions to address housing affordability and commercial market stability
• The continued evolution of work patterns and their impact on office space demand

As we move into 2025, the real estate market will likely be characterized by transformation and adaptation. Those who can navigate these changes effectively, whether through innovative development strategies, astute investments, or policy reforms, will be best positioned to thrive in this evolving landscape. The industry's ability to address affordability concerns, repurpose underutilized assets, leverage new financial tools, and overcome construction challenges will be crucial in shaping the future of real estate in the United States.

Impact Capitol DC SitusAMC Mortgage Bankers Association The Mortgage Collaborative Mortgage Professional America Mortgage Action Alliance (MAA) National MI National Association of REALTORS? National Mortgage News National Association of Home Builders National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association (NRMLA) Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Housing Finance Agency Federal Housing Administration and HUD Office of Housing Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Consumer Financial Protection Bureau The White House