Daily Dose of Real Estate for November 14

Opening Summary

The real estate market continues to navigate a complex landscape of shifting economic indicators, evolving affordability challenges, and sector-specific trends. Today's Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates looms large over the housing sector, with potential implications for mortgage rates and market dynamics. Recent data shows a mixed picture of resilience and challenges across residential, commercial, and mortgage markets, reflecting the ongoing adaptation to post-pandemic realities and economic uncertainties. Notably, the rental market is showing signs of cooling, while the commercial real estate sector faces both opportunities and challenges across different property types.

Key Takeaways

• Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations surged 59% in Q3 2024 compared to the previous year.
• Home prices increased in 90% of metro areas in Q3 2024, despite high mortgage rates.
• Experts predict mortgage rates will decline in 2025, potentially boosting housing market activity.
• Rents fell 0.6% in October, indicating a cooling rental market.
• The commercial real estate outlook varies significantly by property type, with industrial and multifamily sectors showing strength while office spaces face ongoing challenges.
• Inflation remained steady at 3.2% year-over-year in October, while wholesale prices unexpectedly dropped.

Economic News & Data

Inflation Trends and Consumer Price Index

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that inflation remained steady at 3.2% year-over-year in October 2024, unchanged from September. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.0% from a year ago, indicating persistent underlying inflationary pressures. This data suggests that the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation down to its 2% target continue to face challenges [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm ).

Producer Price Index Signals Easing Wholesale Inflation

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand decreased 0.5% in October, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.4% rise in September and a 0.7% advance in August. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.3% for the 12 months ended in October. This unexpected drop in wholesale prices could potentially alleviate some inflationary pressures in the coming months [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm ).

Retail Sales Show Resilience

October's retail sales data surprised analysts by showing a 0.1% increase, defying expectations of a slight decline. This resilience in consumer spending, despite high interest rates and inflation concerns, suggests that the U.S. economy remains on relatively solid footing. However, the modest gain also indicates a potential slowdown in consumer activity compared to previous months [U.S. Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf ).

Residential Real Estate Markets

Rental Market Cooling

According to new data from Apartment List, rents fell by 0.6% in October 2024, marking the second consecutive month of decline. This trend suggests a cooling in the rental market, which has been exceptionally hot in recent years. The national median rent now stands at $1,354 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1,723 for a two-bedroom. Notably, this decline is more pronounced than the typical seasonal dip, potentially indicating a broader shift in the rental market dynamics [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rents-fell-06-in-october-new-data-shows-134635444.html ).

Key points from the rental market data include:

• Year-over-year rent growth: Slowed to 2.8%, the lowest rate since April 2021.
• Vacancy rate: Increased to 6.5%, up from 5.1% a year ago, suggesting improved options for renters.
• Regional variations: Sun Belt markets, which saw significant rent increases during the pandemic, are now experiencing some of the sharpest declines.

This cooling trend in the rental market could have implications for the broader housing market, potentially affecting decisions between renting and buying for many Americans.

Home Prices Continue to Rise

The National Association of REALTORS? reports that approximately 90% of metro markets (196 out of 226) registered home price gains in the third quarter of 2024. The national median single-family existing-home price increased by 3.1% year-over-year to $418,700. Notably, seven percent of the tracked metro areas recorded double-digit price gains, down from 13% in the second quarter [National Association of REALTORS?](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/almost-90-of-metro-areas-posted-home-price-increases-in-third-quarter-of-2024 ).

Market Hotness and Regional Variations

The Manchester-Nashua, N.H. metro area ranked as the country's hottest housing market for the tenth consecutive month. The Northeast and Midwest regions dominated the list of hottest markets, reflecting a continued shift in demand patterns. On average, the 20 hottest markets saw inventory increase by 19.7% year-over-year in October, although this remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels [Realtor.com ](https://www.realtor.com/research/october-2024-hottest-housing-markets ).

Election Impact on Housing Activity

The recent election caused a temporary dip in housing market activity, with declines in inventory, new listings, sales, and home prices. This pause is typical for early November during election years, and experts anticipate a rebound in activity in the coming weeks. Despite the short-term fluctuation, the overall trend of increased seller volume and inventory is expected to continue into 2025 [HousingWire](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-market-pauses-for-election/ ).

Mortgage Markets

Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2025

Experts are forecasting a potential decline in mortgage rates for 2025, which could significantly impact the housing market. Predictions suggest that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate could drop to around 6% by the end of 2025, with some optimistic projections as low as 5.5%. This anticipated decrease is based on expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and a potential economic slowdown. However, geopolitical tensions and unexpected economic shifts could influence these projections [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/how-mortgage-rates-will-change-2025-according-experts-1982784 ).

Decline in Relative Housing Affordability

Freddie Mac's recent research highlights a significant decline in relative housing affordability over the past few years. The study reveals that the share of homes affordable to median-income households has decreased from about 60% in 2018 to just 30% in 2023. This trend is largely attributed to the rapid rise in home prices, which has outpaced income growth. The research also points out regional variations, with some areas experiencing more severe affordability challenges than others [Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20241112-the-decline-in-relative-housing-affordability ).

Mortgage Applications and Market Volatility

The Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2024, indicates ongoing volatility in mortgage applications. The recent rise in rates has led to a slowdown in refinancing activity and has impacted purchase applications. However, the full effects of the recent rate increases are still unfolding, and the market is closely watching for signs of adaptation among potential homebuyers [Mortgage Bankers Association](https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/cmf-originations-index/3q24cmforiginationssurvey.pdf ).

Commercial Real Estate Markets (including Multifamily)

Surge in Commercial and Multifamily Borrowing

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations saw a significant increase in the third quarter of 2024. Originations were up by 59% compared to the same period last year and increased by 44% from the second quarter of 2024 [Mortgage Bankers Association](https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/cmf-originations-index/3q24cmforiginationssurvey.pdf ).

Commercial Real Estate Outlook: A Mixed Bag

The commercial real estate sector is experiencing varied performance across different property types, reflecting broader economic trends and shifts in work and lifestyle patterns [U.S. News & World Report](https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/the-commercial-real-estate-outlook ).

Key insights into the commercial real estate outlook include:

• Industrial sector: Continues to be a top performer, driven by strong e-commerce growth and reshoring of manufacturing. Vacancy rates remain low at 3.9%, with robust rent growth.
• Multifamily sector: Shows resilience despite challenges. While there are concerns about oversupply in some markets, overall demand remains strong, particularly for affordable housing options.
• Retail sector: Experiences a bifurcated market. High-end retail and experiential retail are performing well, while traditional malls and big-box stores face ongoing challenges.
• Office sector: Remains the most challenged, with high vacancy rates (18.4% nationally) and ongoing uncertainty about the future of work. However, there's a flight to quality, with newer, amenity-rich buildings outperforming older stock.
• Hotel sector: Shows signs of recovery, particularly in the leisure segment, though business travel remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Investors and developers are adapting to these trends by focusing on adaptive reuse projects, particularly converting outdated office spaces into residential or mixed-use properties. The sector is also seeing increased interest in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors, with a growing emphasis on sustainable and energy-efficient buildings.

Property Type Performance

The survey revealed varied performance across different property types:

• Health Care Properties: Experienced an extraordinary 317% year-over-year increase in loan originations.
• Hotel Properties: Showed strong recovery with a 156% increase.
• Retail Properties: Demonstrated resilience with a 101% rise.
• Industrial Properties: Continued their robust performance with an 86% increase.
• Multifamily Properties: Maintained steady growth with a 35% uptick in originations.
• Office Properties: Faced ongoing challenges with a 3% decrease in originations.

Lender Types and Market Share

The survey also highlighted changes in market share among different types of lenders:

• Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS): Saw a substantial 1,000% year-over-year increase in originations.
• Commercial Banks: Experienced a 70% rise in loan volume.
• Life Insurance Companies: Increased their originations by 46%.
• Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac): Showed a modest 3% growth in loan volume.

Market Drivers and Future Outlook

Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Head of Commercial Real Estate Research, attributed the surge in originations to lower interest rates during the quarter. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds dropped from an average of 4.31% in June to 3.72% in September, creating a more favorable borrowing environment. However, Woodwell cautioned that the recent rise in longer-term interest rates might impact fourth-quarter originations.

CMBS / REIT Markets

CMBS Delinquency Trends

Recent data from Trepp indicates evolving trends in CMBS delinquencies across various property types. The office sector continues to face challenges, with rising delinquency rates reflecting the ongoing uncertainties in the post-pandemic work environment. Conversely, industrial and multifamily CMBS have shown more stable performance, aligning with the broader trends in these sectors [Trepp](https://www.trepp.com/ ).

REIT Performance and Market Outlook

REITs have demonstrated mixed performance, with sector-specific variations mirroring the broader commercial real estate market. Industrial and residential REITs have generally outperformed office and retail REITs, reflecting the divergent paths of recovery across different property types. Investors are closely monitoring how REITs adapt to changing market conditions, particularly in light of rising interest rates and evolving tenant demands [NAREIT](https://www.reit.com/ ).

Closing Thoughts: Navigating Divergent Trends in a Complex Market

As we analyze the latest developments in the real estate landscape, it's clear that market segmentation and localized trends are becoming increasingly important. The cooling rental market presents a potential shift in the residential sector, which could have ripple effects on home buying decisions and investment strategies. Meanwhile, the commercial real estate outlook underscores the importance of adaptability and sector-specific knowledge.

The divergence between thriving industrial and multifamily sectors and the challenged office market highlights the need for nuanced approaches to real estate investment and development. As we move forward, stakeholders must remain attuned to these varied trends, balancing the optimism of potential mortgage rate declines with the realities of sector-specific challenges and opportunities.

In this dynamic environment, success will likely come to those who can effectively navigate these complex market conditions, leveraging data-driven insights to make informed decisions across the real estate spectrum. The interplay between economic indicators, policy decisions, and market dynamics will continue to shape the real estate landscape, requiring vigilance and strategic thinking from all industry participants.

That concludes today's Daily Dose of Real Estate. Stay tuned for more updates and insights as we continue to monitor the ever-evolving real estate market.

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Impact Capitol DC SitusAMC Mortgage Bankers Association The Mortgage Collaborative Mortgage Professional America National Association of REALTORS? National MI National Association of Home Builders National Mortgage News Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Federal Housing Finance Agency Federal Housing Administration and HUD Office of Housing Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Consumer Financial Protection Bureau The White House