Daily Active Users (DAU)

Various news outlets reported that Threads, the Twitter competitor from Meta, is having an engagement problem. WSJ reported that DAU (day active users) fell to 13 million, down 70% from the peak in June. Let's put this in perspective -- DAU of 13 million is a metric that most consumer apps dream of achieving. Therefore, on an absolute basis, it is very impressive number. For comparison, Instagram has approximately 500 million DAU. Twitter has about 240 million DAU. Linkedin has over 800 million members and over 140 million DAU. So this is hard. If any platform can pull this off, it would be the likes of Meta. Engagement is what drives longevity, the network effect, algorithm optimizations, and advertising business model.

Achieving and growing consumer product engagement is incredibly hard and takes a lot of capital and resources, but I believe that it is much harder now because of market and user dynamics.

Higher switching cost. When major social media platforms launched more than 10 or 15 years ago, the market wasn't as crowded. People were experimenting with how much time they were willing to put into (unconsciously or consciously) these platforms, the type of content that represented their voices on the platform, and the audience they were looking to attract. Now, this market is mature. People have their social media "homes." They have built a voice, content strategy and library, and audiences on social media platforms. The more engaged a user, the more valuable that user is to the platform. Similarly, users know this dynamic, and they understand the switching cost of moving, adding, or rebuilding on another platform. There is a cost function, and the more platforms they have active audience and engagement, the most costly it is to switch.

Natural Cannibalization. Even when we are not thinking from the lens of switching cost, we need to acknowledge that social media platforms are competing for time (user's time). Platforms and apps are asking us to give them our time. Meta owns Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, and now Threads. If a user spends 25 minutes per day on each of the 3 or 4 platforms, the user is spending over an hour. Think about how many apps (which deliver services to us) and time commitments we have outside work and sleep. Social media apps are not the only apps most people are using. Therefore, the problem is intrinsic cannibalization independent of product strategy, features, and user acquisition channels. Users simply have to prioritize how much time they are willing to spend within each platform and in aggregate. It is a juggling act whether they know or it now. At some point, they will need a break or reshuffle where they spend time in the digital world.

I am not saying that Threads will not work. It has high potential and creates sort of a good competition for Twitter and a potential alternative for Twitter users. But I think these key dynamics will be major challenges for any new social media platforms and challengers.

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My writings are not investment advice and reflect solely my perspectives.