D3. Expressing Likelihood/ Certainty

Understand the applicability of terms such as “possible”, “likely” and “highly likely”.

We express likelihood when we use these terms: “possible”, “likely” and “highly likely”, which describe the probability of future events. However, these terms are subjective and allow room for individual interpretation. One analyst might consider an even “likely”, while another might view it as merely “possible”, which creates confusion and affects the decision-making process.

To ensure a shared understanding, analysts should employ these terms consistently. This will help those reading the reports interpret the content similarly.

To reduce ambiguity, following a standard approach is key.

Standardised Probability Terms: To reduce the risk of misinterpretation, implement a set of standardised terms with a specific probability range. For example, terms like “almost certain” could correspond to 93% probability and “probable” to 75%. To enhance clarity, analysts must be consistent when they define and use these terms.

Using Numerical Probabilities: To offer a clearer way to express uncertainty where possible, use numerical probabilities (e.g. 70% chance) or odds ratio (e.g., 3 to 1 odds). There are some unique situations where it may be challenging to assess precise probabilities. That’s why analysts must aim for the highest possible precision.

Providing Context for Probabilities: It is not enough to present numerical probabilities alone. Analysts should explain how these probabilities were determined, including the assumptions and key indicators that could change the assessment. This transparency helps readers to understand the reasoning behind the probabilities and make informed decision-making.

Moving beyond ambiguous language to express uncertainty is key to effective intelligence analysis. Analysts must adopt a standardised and quantitative approach to probability so they can improve the clarity and impact of their assessments, which leads to better-informed decisions across all levels of the organisation.