If D. Trump wins the 2024 election, how will it affect the global plastic market?

In the current race for the 2024 US presidential election, there are currently two most prominent candidates, Biden and Trump. Many analyses suggest that D. Trump has a higher chance of winning compared to Biden. Therefore, if D. Trump wins, it could impact the plastic market with the following main points:

1. The US economy will continue to prioritize domestic production, and trade barriers will be erected, similar to his previous term. The main targets will be China and the EU. As a result, the flow of plastic raw materials from the US will likely shift towards the EU, Latin America, Africa, and Asia, excluding China. Finished products from countries, especially from Asia, will be an opportunity for Southeast Asia, India, and African countries.
2. The conflict in Ukraine will end due to the low levels of aid and support from the US. The global economy will recover slightly after the recession. The biggest beneficiaries after this will be Russia and the EU, as some of the sanctions will be lifted. This will contribute to the distribution of oil and plastic raw materials from Russia to their familiar markets.
3. For India and Southeast Asia, this is both a challenge and a great opportunity for them to develop additional factories and distribution networks while their main competitor, China, is restricted. SEA and India will continue to receive investments and production shifts from China as in the past six years. However, the downside is fierce competition from Chinese factories for the EU and African markets.
4. For China, this is a major challenge in adapting to and changing with the current difficult situation. They will have to enhance cooperation with Russia, Iran, and countries unfriendly to the US. At the same time, they must continue to build and strengthen their market in Asia, Africa, and Europe to replace the US market.
5. Conflicts in the Middle East and the EU will gradually decrease, encouraging the global economy to reach a new balance and return to the pre-Ukraine conflict level in 2022, including the plastic industry.

In summary, there are many positive factors when D. Trump returns to the White House in 2024 for the plastic industry, but there are also many challenges posed to many countries and the reshaping of the global logistics system. Of course, opportunities and challenges always go hand in hand, and the one who benefits most is the one who adapts best to the new circumstances and new opportunities. This is my personal opinion, and I hope to receive your feedback and sharing to collectively examine a new issue.