D-DAY IN DUNKLEY- the 2024 authoritarian barometer

A by-election will be held in the seat of Dunkley after the tragic passing of federal Labor MP Peta Murphy at the age of 50 after a long battle with breast cancer.

Sky News suggests that Dunkley will see a swing to Dutton with the Liberals battling to win the seat after the recent ten per cent drop in Dan Andrew’s former seat. Without the local representative factor, Dunkley constitutes the essence of the nation's mood. Its constituents are high on the authoritarian scale that Dutton believes will make Albo a one-time PM. The seat has a notional margin of around 6% but Sky believes that a swing of around 3% with a large number of independents and swing voters could give a strong candidate the chance to win back this traditional conservative seat as a precursor to a return of Queensland to the LNP side.

The Opposition has decided that outer-suburban seats represent a better prospect to force Labor into minority government in the hope that they can swing a deal with the Greens to capture these by-election marginals. Dunkley is located south-east of Melbourne on the Mornington Peninsula. It covers an area of approximately 152 square kilometres (59 sq mi) from Seaford in the north to Mount Eliza in the south and Langwarrin South in the southeast

Emanuele Cicchiello has been announced as the Liberal candidate for the seat of Aston. The Liberals also have their sights set on winning back the seat of Aston, unveiling their candidate for the 2025 federal election on Saturday. History was made at the April by-election when the once liberal heartland became Labour territory.

Peta Jan Murphy (1 November 1973 – 4 December 2023) was an exceptional Australian politician. She was the first female to win the seat after being elected in 2019 and the first Labor member since 1996. Before entering parliament, Murphy worked variously as a solicitor, barrister, Senior Public Defender at Victoria Legal Aid, Team Leader at the Victorian Law Reform Commission and as Chief of Staff to Labor Shadow Minister O’Connor.

Peta was a member of the House of Representatives Social and Legal Affairs Committee, the House of Representative Economics Committee and the House of Representatives Select Selection Committee.[2] ??She was an advocate for breast screening and early diagnosis of cancer and in her maiden speech spoke of her commitment to healthcare and creating employment opportunities in Melbourne's outer suburbs.

Murphy made sure to let others speak when she chaired a public inquiry into the social damage from problem gambling. She became a strong advocate for change and it motivated her to come to parliament last week even when she was in the final stages of a terrible, debilitating cancer.

A STRAW IN THE WINDS OF CHANGE.

Dunkley is of particular interest as it has a higher-than-average population high on the Authoritarian scale, seeking stability, reduced crime, lower immigration levels and a stronger interest in defence and foreign affairs.

We need to explore how the authoritarian personality that Dutton seeks to mobilise might relate to attitudes towards immigration and refugees:

1.???? Fear of the Other: Authoritarian personalities tend to perceive the world in terms of "us versus them." They may be more likely to view immigrants and refugees as a threat to their established social order, leading to increased fear and hostility.

2.???? Prejudice and Stereotyping: Authoritarian individuals may exhibit higher levels of prejudice and stereotyping, attributing negative characteristics to entire groups of people based on their immigration status or refugee background.

3.???? Desire for Strong Leadership: Authoritarian personalities often seek strong, charismatic leaders who promise to maintain order and uphold traditional values. Politicians who capitalize on anti-immigrant or anti-refugee sentiment may appeal to individuals with authoritarian tendencies.

4.???? Resistance to Change: Authoritarian individuals may be resistant to social change and more inclined to support restrictive immigration policies that aim to preserve the status quo.

It's important to note that while the concept of the authoritarian personality has been influential, it has also faced criticism for its simplification of complex social and psychological phenomena. Attitudes towards immigration and refugees are multifaceted and influenced by a variety of factors, including economic, cultural, and political considerations.

Additionally, not everyone who holds conservative views on immigration necessarily exhibits all the traits associated with the authoritarian personality. However, the results of the Referendum reflect an underlying bias towards this personality profile.

Notwithstanding the success of Peta in turning the tide by being an outstanding local member, this seat represents the front line for those hoping that the financial tide will see a significant fall in interest rates following the lead of the US Federal Reserve in Biden's re-election year.

It will be the barometer that measures the prospects for a very divisive 2024 year, facing up to a struggle between authoritarian conservatism and economic rationalism.

CONCEPTUAL NOTE:

The concept of the authoritarian personality was developed by Theodor Adorno, a German philosopher and sociologist, in collaboration with other researchers in the mid-20th century. Adorno, along with Max Horkheimer, Else Frenkel-Brunswik, and Daniel Levinson, explored the idea in their seminal work "The Authoritarian Personality," published in 1950. ?Key elements of the theory point to:

1.???? Authoritarian submission: A strong inclination to submit to established authorities and conform to conventional societal norms.

2.???? Authoritarian aggression: A tendency to be hostile and punitive towards individuals or groups perceived as deviating from social norms or threatening authority.

3.???? Conventionalism: A rigid adherence to traditional social values, norms, and moral standards.