Cyromance: faith (well placed?)
Review South Africa mainstream media, and you may conclude there is a "bromance" or perhaps a more apt and gender-neutral "Cyromance" underway between a large swathe of influential stakeholders—pundits, industry associations, media, etc.—and Cyril Ramaphosa, president of South Africa. During Mr Ramaphosa's recent state of the nation address he even appeared to neuter and charm one of the African National Congress's (ANC's) fiercest and bellicose opponents—Julius Malema, leader of the economic freedom fighters.
Much of the goodwill shown, bordering on infatuation, gives Mr Ramaphosa not only the benefit of the doubt but also has overlaid a taken-for-granted narrative: Mr Ramaphosa is the principled grown up in the ANC room, with the requisite vision, skills, experience, sober policy positions, moral fibre and gravitas to lead South Africa out of the pit the ruling ANC dug the country into under the leadership of Jacob Zuma, whose scandal ridden, corrupt and corrosive administration is on display in jaw-dropping fashion at various inquiries and commissions.
The narrative suggests that a convincing mandate from the electorate in the upcoming national elections is all Mr Ramaphosa requires to quell and remove counter-productive factions within his party and the tripartite alliance and lead South Africa out of its current morass. Even better, perhaps, would be for Mr Ramaphosa to do what no president has successfully done since the dawn of South Africa's democracy—complete two full terms in office.
However, the narrative is flawed. For example, Cyril Ramaphosa is a billionaire. There's nothing wrong with being rich; however, he's accumulated eye-watering wealth relatively quickly, not necessarily through the sweat of his brow but most certainly the depth and breadth of his political connections have contributed. Many of the investment deals extended to Mr Ramaphosa were directly linked to his heavy-weight political status rather than commercial acumen. For some, this makes Mr Ramaphosa a poster child for crony capitalism and much of what's wrong with the country's approach to Black economic empowerment, which has benefitted the politically-connected few at the expense of the many still disadvantaged by the legacy of Apartheid. In some quarters, Mr Ramaphosa's quick route to riches undermines his credibility to lecture anyone against using positions of power inappropriately for personal gain and is part of a broader set of contributing factors that has undermined the legitimacy of the ruling party, the capacity of state institutions and governance overall.
Moreover, a dominant showing by the ANC in the general election will undoubtedly help Mr Ramaphosa's ambitions but it's no guarantee that it will bring adversaries to heel or better position him to achieve his objectives. In 2004, Thabo Mbeki, former president of South Africa, delivered the largest share of the national vote—around 70%—the ANC has ever achieved. None the less, Mr Mbeki was unceremoniously removed by his party before completing his full term.
Mr Rampahosa appears to be very aware of these dynamics and is walking on egg shells to keep factions in his alliance together and in the process, at times, undermining his own credibility. From the World Economic Forum (WEF) to Nkandla, Mr Ramaphosa's positions depend on the audience he's engaging. Most recently in Davos while addressing a dinner audience he referred to "nine lost years"—a period corresponding to the Jacob Zuma administration—and his own administration's current efforts to clean up and get the country back on the right track; it seemed an inconvenient fact that not long before visiting Davos Mr Ramphosa was in Kwa Zulu Natal to celebrate the ruling party's anniversary and launch its election manifesto; during this visit, Mr Rampahosa deferentially treated and publicly layered praise on Mr Zuma.
The ANC prides itself on ruling as a collective. Mr Ramaphosa has been an insider and active participant of that collective for decades. Prior to his current position he served as Mr Zuma's deputy and defended the indefensible from public money inappropriately spent to upgrade Mr Zuma's homestead to arguing against casting ballots in favour of a no confidence vote in Mr Zuma.
Mr Ramaphosa became the ANC president at the party's December 2017 elective conference by a very narrow margin of votes. In addition, he is heading to the May 8th general election and has to be particularly careful not to alienate influential constituencies that have the power to undermine the ANC's success at the polls, as well as his presidential aspirations.
Perhaps what is most ironic is that Mr Ramaphosa can't separate himself from the Zuma administration and indeed the shortcomings of the ANC, but he clearly represents a clean break from both. The reason for the Cyromance among many influential stakeholders and the public at large—he polls more favourably than the party he leads—is notwithstanding personal and political-party shortcomings, many believe he is the best hope South Africa has to turn the corner after the Jacob Zuma years. Time will tell if the faith shown in Mr Ramaphosa is well placed.