Cynefin - A framework used by leading consulting players like BCG & McKinsey to find the "right" project approaches

Executives and project leaders face a myriad of challenges that demand adaptable problem-solving approaches.

The Cynefin framework offers a robust model to navigate the complexities of different scenarios, providing a clear understanding of the problem domain and guiding decision-making processes.

Developed by Dave Snowden, the Cynefin framework categorizes problems into five domains, each requiring unique approaches for resolution. McKinsey, BCG and other leading consulting players leverage aspects of the framework in their daily diagnostic consulting work.

In this article you will explore the Cynefin framework and how executives and project leaders can leverage its principles to adapt their project approaches to various scenarios effectively.

Understanding the Cynefin Framework

The Cynefin framework divides problem domains into five distinct areas: Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, and Disorder. Each domain represents a different level of order, uncertainty, and predictability. By identifying which domain a problem falls into, leaders can tailor their decision-making and problem-solving strategies accordingly.

• Simple Domain: In this domain, problems are well-defined and have clear cause-and-effect relationships. Solutions are straightforward and can be applied repeatedly with predictable outcomes.
• Complicated Domain: Problems in this domain are more intricate, requiring analysis and expertise. Multiple solutions may exist, and expert knowledge is necessary to choose the most effective one.
• Complex Domain: In complex scenarios, the cause-and-effect relationships are not apparent, and outcomes are unpredictable. Here, leaders need to experiment, probe, and adapt to uncover effective solutions.
• Chaotic Domain: In chaotic situations, there is no apparent pattern, and immediate action is required. Leaders must act decisively to stabilize the situation and create a path forward.
• Disorder Domain: When the nature of the problem is unclear, and it is uncertain which domain it belongs to, leaders must first determine the domain before taking appropriate action.

Real-life examples

Simple Domain

Example: Employee Onboarding Process

In a well-established organization, the HR department has a clearly defined employee onboarding process. It follows a standardized procedure that includes orientation sessions, document submissions, and IT setup for new employees. This process is repeatable, predictable, and proven to be effective, making it suitable for the Simple domain.

Complicated Domain

Example: Software Development Project

A software development company faces a complex problem while developing a new feature for their product. The development team is presented with various potential solutions, and each option requires careful analysis and expertise. They engage in technical discussions, review architectural choices, and conduct cost-benefit analyses before settling on the best approach.

Complex Domain

Example: Market Entry Strategy for a New Product

A company is venturing into a new market with a unique product. The market landscape is uncertain, and cause-and-effect relationships are not clear. The marketing team adopts an iterative and experimental approach, running small-scale pilot campaigns in different regions. They gather data, analyze customer responses, and adapt their strategy based on the feedback received to navigate the complexity and identify an effective market entry plan.

Chaotic Domain

Example: Crisis Response to Natural Disaster

In the aftermath of a severe natural disaster, such as an earthquake or hurricane, the situation becomes chaotic. Emergency responders must act quickly to provide immediate aid, stabilize the environment, and restore essential services. Decisions are made on the spot to address the most critical needs and restore order, without the luxury of time for extensive analysis.

Disorder Domain

Example: A Newly Discovered Security Breach

When a company discovers a security breach, they may initially find it challenging to determine the severity and implications of the incident. This uncertainty places the problem in the Disorder domain. In such cases, leaders need to conduct rapid sense-making, gather all available information, and consult with experts to classify the problem accurately before formulating a response plan.

It is essential to recognize that real-life problems can exhibit characteristics of multiple domains, and they may shift from one domain to another over time. For instance, a problem that starts as chaotic may become better understood, moving into the Complex or Complicated domain as more information is gathered and analyzed. Leaders and project teams should continuously assess the nature of the problem and adapt their approaches accordingly.

Assessment framework

Is the Problem Clearly Defined and Repeatable? (Simple Domain)

• Are there well-established processes or best practices that have worked in the past?
• Can the problem be solved using standard operating procedures or predefined guidelines?
• Is there a single known solution that reliably resolves the issue?

Does the Problem Require Expert Knowledge and Analysis? (Complicated Domain)

• Are there multiple potential solutions that require expert evaluation and analysis?
• Does the problem involve technical complexities that demand specialized expertise?
• Can the solution be reached through data-driven approaches and problem-solving methodologies?

Are the Cause-and-Effect Relationships Unclear, and Outcomes Unpredictable? (Complex Domain)

• Does the problem involve various interconnected factors without a clear linear cause-and-effect relationship?
• Have past attempts to solve the problem resulted in diverse outcomes?
• Is the situation constantly changing, and does it require adaptive responses?

Is the Situation Chaotic and Requiring Immediate Action? (Chaotic Domain)

• Is the problem characterized by an urgent need for immediate response and containment?
• Does the situation lack patterns, stability, and predictability?
• Are there no obvious solutions, and do leaders need to act quickly to restore order?

Is the Nature of the Problem Unclear and Requires Sense-making? (Disorder Domain)

• Is the problem novel and unprecedented, making it challenging to categorize?
• Are there conflicting information and interpretations, making it difficult to determine the best course of action?
• Is it necessary to gather more information and analyze the situation further before making decisions?

By evaluating the characteristics of the problem using the above diagnostic questions, leaders can gain insights into which domain of the Cynefin framework the problem aligns with. Once identified, they can then apply the appropriate problem-solving approach and strategies tailored to that specific domain.

Remember that real-life problems may not always fit neatly into a single category, and they can evolve over time. Thus, continuous assessment and adaptation are essential for effective problem-solving and decision-making.

Applying Cynefin to Project Approaches

Simple Domain Approach: For projects in the Simple domain, CEOs and project leaders can adopt standardized processes, best practices, and well-established protocols. Clearly defined project plans, checklists, and SOPs can ensure consistent execution and deliver reliable outcomes.

Complicated Domain Approach: In the Complicated domain, leaders should focus on gathering expert opinions and conducting thorough analysis. They can employ methodologies such as Six Sigma, root cause analysis, or consulting with subject matter experts to find optimal solutions.

Complex Domain Approach: When dealing with complex problems, you should embrace experimentation, collaboration, and continuous learning. Adopting Agile methodologies and fostering a culture of innovation and adaptability can lead to novel and effective solutions.

Chaotic Domain Approach: In chaotic situations, decisive action is essential to stabilize the environment. Leaders should prioritize crisis management, establish command structures, and make quick, informed decisions to regain control and navigate toward stability.

Disorder Domain Approach: When faced with uncertainty and disorder, leaders must first diagnose the problem's nature and then determine the appropriate domain. Using techniques like sense-making and problem framing can help clarify the situation.

Check out this TED Video to learn more about the framework and it's origins:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_waoADNcaBU

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