Cycles: A Practical Approach II

8-29-17: Cycles are a means of measuring the relationship between time and events - and being able to anticipate similar events in the future. In that way, cycles are also the lag between multiple events - sometimes viewed as a time of preparation between the initial event and its successor event. During the past 3,000+ years, no cycle has more consistently illustrated this principle than the Cycle of 40.

Long before a key facet of its origin was recognized, the Cycle of 40 governed ancient events - many of which are recounted in the Bible & other ancient manuscripts. In recent centuries, the Cycle of 40 has governed America’s entire history - timing repeated economic swings (including repeated financial panics), crop & food crises (in America and around the globe) and currency wars (fiat/paper vs. gold/silver… and now digital currency as well) - as well as many other seminal events.

That 40-Year Cycle is why 2017 - 2021 has been forecast, for the past decade, to usher in a tumultuous & challenging time in the U.S. and around the globe. Some general and some very specific expectations for this period have been published over the past 5 - 10 years, with a market like gold providing a prime example of closely adhering to this cycle and related analysis.

The Sun’s 40-Year Cycle

One intriguing aspect of this cycle is something that was only recently discovered. As is the case with so many cycles of this nature, their existence & repetition is usually recognized long before their origin or cause. This 40-Year Cycle has been observable for millennia but it has only been in recent decades that scientists have identified the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun - the cycle that governs the circulation of plasma around it (future articles will elaborate on this). And, guess how long it is…

40 Years!

This 40-year Great Conveyor Belt governs the ebb and flow of sunspots & solar storms - and actually has two phases or branches (northern & southern). Each of those 40-Year Cycles times a unique circuit in the Sun’s waxing & waning explosiveness (sunspots or solar storms) and the resulting impact on Earth. 

As a result, it takes one full 40-Year Cycle to return to a similar phase - whether that be peaks or troughs in the Sun’s activity. That is one reason why similar food crises or crop stresses are seen on a consistent, 40-year basis.

On a larger basis (due to its northern & southern ‘branches’), the Sun must undergo two 40-Year Cycles before it returns to a more significant transition point. So, it combines to pinpoint an over-arching 80-Year Cycle - the same cycle that has been identified as the Cycle of War (8/15/17 article: “…Doomed to Repeat It.”). There is a lot more to this, but a little more groundwork is necessary before fleshing out each aspect of this uncanny cycle and how best to utilize it in a practical, decision-making process.

The following is a reprint of the ‘About: 40-Year Cycle’ explanation at 40YearCycle.com. It provides a broad-stroke overview of what this cycle is portending for the cyclically-momentous period of 2017 - 2021…

10-12-14: 2013 - 2016 Sets the Stage for 2017 - 2021, a Momentous Convergence of Long-Term Cycles… including 17-Year, 40-Year, 70-Year, 100-Year & 200-Year Cycles!

One of the most consistent is the 40-Year Cycle. Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Dollar Bubbles & Crashes; Inflation & Deflation; Climate Change (Droughts, Floods, Freezes, etc.); Earthquakes & Volcanoes; War & Peace; (National) Profit & Loss… They ALL swing in tandem with the 40-Year Cycle!

For the past 3 decades, much has been written (in our publications) about this impending period in history - beginning in 2011 - 2013, transitioning in 2014 - 2017 and expected to accelerate in 2018 - 2021. It is the culmination and convergence of dozens of momentous cycles - many of which are leading to similar conclusions. 

As detailed since 1999, the year of 2011 represented a kind of initial culmination - when inflationary pressures (reflected in commodities, gold, silver, copper, etc.), geopolitical tensions (particularly in the Middle East), and even earth disturbance cycles (earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, etc.) would complete an initial crescendo - accelerating into diverse peaks in 2011 - even as stocks and the U.S. Dollar exited bearish cycles and could see some surprise advances into the second half of the 2010’s.  

A Dramatic Climate Change

Those factors are expected to usher in a double-whammy of ‘Climate Change’. One involves a serious change of climate in investing (paper vs. hard assets, etc.) while the other involves the kind of natural climate change that has occurred at 40-year intervals for hundreds of years. 

A perfect example involves U.S. drought in the 1850’s & 1890’s, droughts & crop failures in the mid-1890’s, the mid-1930’s (Dust Bowl, etc.) and the mid-1970’s (California drought, freezes & heat waves, etc.)… all of which factor into expectations for the late-2010’s. [These prior periods also included devastating droughts/famines in China, Australia, India, UK and other nations. In most cases, the ‘7’ year is when trouble began to accelerate… AKA ‘when the stuff hits the fan’.] 

However, another form of climate change - brought about by volcanic eruptions - has also adhered to the 40-Year Cycle. And 2015 - 2019 represents the next phase of that 40-Year Cycle - which includes events like the 1815 eruption of Tambora and the ensuing ‘Year Without a Summer’ in 1816. Volcanic activity is expected to enter a more volatile period in 2014/2015… and then intensify in 2017 - 2019.

‘Climate Change’ takes many forms and is expected to take on a very ‘ugly form’ in a few years - beginning in/around 2015 - 2017.  

Gold, Dollar & Stock Swings to Accelerate

As also detailed throughout the 2000’s, that 2011 crescendo was expected to simply time the first of a series of accelerating and ascending ‘crescendos’ - each one superseding the previous one like progressive mountain peaks that lead to the ultimate summit.   

In order to better understand the purpose of this site (which ONLY represents a single cog in a much larger cyclic ‘gear’), it is important to comprehend the significance of the 40-Year Cycle and what it signifies…

For starters, the number 40 has long-since been associated with ‘testing’ or ‘preparation’. 

The Bible - and other historical documents - describe a myriad of 40-day & 40-year periods that immediately preceded a Major shift or transition (or, as the Bible sometimes describes it, a ‘judgment’). Modern medicine corroborates that. So, too, do ancient burial practices.

Many religious traditions - like the period of Lent - reinforce this cycle of 40 (40-day period, leading into Easter). But, so too do natural & physical practices. For instance, the average time for a bone to heal is approximately 40 days (‘preparation’ for returning to normal use). 40 days is considered the longest that a human can fast before the body begins to turn on itself. 

Or, you can go all the way back to the ancient Egyptians and discover that they embalmed their dead for 40 days before burial (another form of ‘preparation’). Hasn’t the world marveled at the preservation of Egyptian mummies for centuries?

On a much larger scale, scientists have discovered that the Sun oscillates on a 40-Year Cycle - sometimes referred to as the ‘Great Conveyor Belt’. It governs the movement & swings of sunspots & solar storms - which have an unmistakable impact on Earth, including our climate & geomagnetic swings.

Stock Market Cycles… & Gold/Dollar Cycles

A 40-day cycle is also one of the most common shorter-term cycles in the stock market. And, a 40-Year Cycle - as I have described & documented for the past two decades - has also governed financial markets. It is a much larger-degree manifestation of the same cycle… a higher-level evolution of that Cycle of 40. This site describes many examples of that.

A perfect example of that took place very recently when Gold was forecast to set a Major peak in August 2011 - EXACTLY 40 years from the Nixon Shock of August 1971. That is when the U.S. removed the ability for international holders to convert their Dollars into Gold… and when the Dollar - in terms of Gold - began a decade-long plummet that ultimately saw Gold increase over 20-fold, based on its relationship to the U.S. Dollar. 

That 40-Year bull market - in Gold - culminated in August 2011!

As described leading into that time frame, I was expecting a dramatic shift in the Dollar/Gold relationship (and projecting a Major reversal down in Gold) after August 2011… just as a dramatic shift had taken place 40 years earlier. A 40-Year Cycle was reaching fruition and ushering in a momentous transition in the relationship between Gold & the U.S. Dollar.

Guess what?

Gold rallied into August 2011. It set its highest monthly close in August 2011. And then Gold reversed lower in Sept. 2011. It has declined ever since!

Cycles & Synergy & Stock Market Bubbles

Keep in mind, however, that it was NOT just the 40-Year Cycle that projected that Major top in Gold (& Silver). Instead, it was the synergy of that 40-Year Cycle and MANY other cycles, indicators & price targets - all coming together at the same time. (And, those cycles hold some surprising possibilities for the late-2010’s.) 

Similarly, that synergy of factors projected a sharp decline - in Gold & Silver - into late-2013 and ultimately into late-2015. And, it projects the culmination of a 40-Year Cycle of ‘Stock-flation’ in late-2014/early-2015 (40 years from when an inflationary advance in equity prices began - in late-1974/early-1975) - after which a multi-year topping process should unfold. That immediately precedes a potentially volatile period in 2015 - 2016 - until related cycles (like the 17-Year Cycle) begin to turn bearish in 2017.

There are other applications of the 40-Year Cycle that reveal some VERY intriguing possibilities for Gold, Silver & the U.S. Dollar - between late-2015 and late-2018. 2016 is projected to be ‘The Golden Year’, when Gold & Silver are forecast to see a 3 - 6 month advance that signals the start (early phase) of a new multi-year advance. 

Following that, a 40-Year Cycle finale (with respect to the Gold/Dollar relationship) will come into play in 2020/2021 - 40 years from the Gold & Silver peaks of 1980. However, there are likely to be some confounding surprises at the culmination of BOTH of those cycles (leading into late-2018 and leading into 2021) - when much larger, overarching cycles take precedence. Gold-bugs AND fiat aficionados could both be shocked!

Earthquakes & Market Quakes; Climate Change & Revolution

There is a lot more to this discussion. For example, earthquake cycles projected similar upheaval - first in 2010 & 2011 and then in 2017 - 2021. Volcano cycles concur! So do Solar Cycles - that possess an intriguing correlation to the 40-Year Cycle. …And many related topics.

And, as detailed throughout this site, the 40-Year Cycle has had a dramatic impact on the development and evolution of nations (like America) & empires…

The period of 1773-1781 (Tea Act to Revolutionary War, Continental currency, etc.), 1813--1821 (Battle over 2nd Bank of United States, Panic of 1819), 1853 - 1861 (Silver & Gold suspension, Panic of 1857, Civil War), 1893 - 1901 (Billion Dollar Congress, Gold Standard battle, Panic of 1893, Depression), 1933 - 1941 (Gold & Silver banned & confiscated, 2nd collapse of stocks, Pearl Harbor & WW II), 1973 - 1981 (Oil Weapon, Collapse of Bretton Woods, Dollar decoupled from Gold & Dollar crash, 1973 - 1974 Stock Crash, etc.) has powerfully validated this 40-Year Cycle throughout the ENTIRE life of America.

So, what does 2013 - 2021 - the next phase of this 40-Year Cycle - hold in store?

Many clues have already been revealed… but many more are still to come. And, brings us back ‘full-cycle’ to the purpose of this site - to educate, inform & enlighten investors… and to prepare them for a volatile period in 2013--2021. 

2013 - 2017 was projected to be the ‘action’ part of this long-term cycle, while 2017 - 2021 is forecast to be the ‘reaction’… when the markets begin to reveal what has been developing beneath the surface (or at least out of view from the masses). 

2017 is the oft-volatile transition year - when the battle should really intensify… So, stay tuned.

And, with regard to any analysis that refers to the markets or investing, it is important to remember:

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING/INVESTING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

2013 - 2021 should be a transformational period - in the markets, in our nation and in the world. 2017 - 2021 should be the acceleration & intensification period within this broader cycle.

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Eric Hadik is President of INSIIDE Track Trading and the editor of INSIIDE Track and the Weekly Re-Lay. More information can be found at www.insiidetrack.com. Corresponding analysis on the 40-Year Cycle & 17-Year Cycle can be found at www.40YearCycle.com & www.17YearCycle.com.