Cyber security is one of the most pressing challenges of the digital era, as organizations and individuals face increasing threats from hackers, cybercriminals, state actors, and malicious insiders. The year 2023 was marked by several high-profile cyber incidents, such as the ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline, the SolarWinds breach that compromised several US government agencies and private companies, the Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerabilities that affected hundreds of thousands of organizations worldwide, and the Facebook data leak that exposed the personal information of more than 500 million users.
These incidents highlighted the need for more effective and resilient cyber security strategies, as well as greater collaboration and coordination among stakeholders. In this article, we will review some of the key cyber security trends and developments that occurred in 2023, and provide some predictions and recommendations for 2024.
2023: A Year of Cyber Inequity, Geopolitical Tensions and Skills Shortage
The year 2023 was marked by several cyber security incidents that exposed the gaps and vulnerabilities in the global cyber ecosystem. Some of the most notable ones are:
- The SolarWinds 2.0 attack, which compromised the software supply chain of thousands of organizations, including government agencies, critical infrastructure operators and Fortune 500 companies. The attack was attributed to a sophisticated state-sponsored actor, who used a backdoor in the SolarWinds Orion platform to gain access to the networks and data of the victims. The attack was discovered in February 2023, but the damage was estimated to be in the billions of dollars and the recovery process was expected to take years.
- The Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, which disrupted the fuel supply of the eastern United States for several days in May 2023. The attack was carried out by a cybercriminal group called DarkSide, who demanded a ransom of $5 million to restore the pipeline’s operations. The attack caused panic buying, price gouging and long lines at gas stations, as well as environmental and economic consequences.
- The Microsoft Exchange zero-day exploits, which affected millions of email servers worldwide in March 2023. The exploits were used by multiple threat actors, including state-sponsored groups and cybercriminals, to steal data, install malware and ransomware, and create backdoors for future attacks. Microsoft issued patches and guidance to mitigate the vulnerabilities, but many organizations were slow to apply them or unaware of the risks.
2024: A Year of Human-Centric Design, Privacy Weaponization and Zero-Trust Maturity
The year 2024 will be a pivotal year for cyber security, as the lessons learned from 2023 will shape the future direction and priorities of the industry. Some of the key trends and predictions for 2024 are:
- The adoption of human-centric design practices in cyber security programs. Human-centric design is a methodology that puts the individual, not technology, threat or location, as the focus of control design and implementation. It aims to minimize operational friction and maximize control adoption, by understanding the needs, preferences and behaviors of the users, and providing them with intuitive, convenient and personalized cyber security solutions. According to Gartner, 50% of CISOs will formally adopt human-centric design practices into their cyber security programs by 2027, up from less than 10% today.
- The weaponization of privacy as a competitive advantage. Privacy is not only a legal and ethical obligation, but also a strategic and business opportunity. Organizations that can demonstrate their commitment to protecting the privacy of their customers, partners, employees and stakeholders will gain a competitive edge in the market, as well as enhance their reputation, trust and loyalty. According to Gartner, by 2024, modern privacy regulation will blanket the majority of consumer data, but less than 10% of organizations will have successfully weaponized privacy as a competitive advantage.
- The maturity and measurability of zero-trust programs. Zero-trust is a security paradigm that assumes no trust in any entity or network, and requires continuous verification and validation of every request and transaction. Zero-trust aims to reduce the attack surface, prevent lateral movement and improve visibility and control of the cyber environment. According to Gartner, by 2026, 10% of large enterprises will have a comprehensive, mature and measurable zero-trust program in place, up from less than 1% today.
These trends and predictions indicate that cyber security in 2024 will be more human-centric, privacy-oriented and zero-trust-based, reflecting the changing needs and expectations of the stakeholders and the evolving nature of the threats and risks. However, these trends and predictions also imply that cyber security in 2024 will require more collaboration, innovation and adaptation, as well as more investment, education and regulation, to achieve the desired outcomes and benefits.
Cyber Security Trends and Developments in 2023
- Human-centric security design: As human behavior and psychology play a significant role in cyber security, more organizations adopted human-centric security design practices to reduce operational friction and maximize control adoption. Human-centric security design is modeled with the individual — not technology, threat or location – as the focus of control design and implementation to minimize friction. For example, some organizations implemented biometric authentication, gamified security awareness training, and personalized security nudges to enhance user engagement and compliance.
- Privacy as a competitive advantage: With the rise of modern privacy regulations, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in the European Union and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) in the United States, organizations recognized that a privacy program can enable them to use data more broadly, differentiate from competitors, and build trust with customers, partners, investors and regulators. Some organizations leveraged privacy-enhancing technologies, such as differential privacy, homomorphic encryption, and federated learning, to protect data while enabling analysis and innovation.
- Zero-trust programs: The concept of zero trust, which assumes that no entity or network is inherently trustworthy, gained more traction and adoption among organizations, especially in the wake of the SolarWinds breach. A mature, widely deployed zero-trust implementation demands integration and configuration of multiple different components, such as identity and access management, network segmentation, endpoint protection, data encryption, and continuous monitoring. Some organizations adopted zero-trust frameworks, such as the NIST Zero Trust Architecture or the Gartner CARTA model, to guide their implementation and assessment.
- Generative AI and cyber: The emergence and advancement of generative AI, which can create realistic and convincing content, such as images, videos, text, and audio, posed new opportunities and challenges for cyber security. On one hand, generative AI can be used to enhance cyber defense, such as by creating synthetic data for training, generating decoys and honeypots, and automating incident response. On the other hand, generative AI can also be used to launch cyber attacks, such as by creating deepfakes, impersonating users, and crafting phishing emails.
- Cyber skills shortage: The demand for cyber security professionals continued to outstrip the supply, as the cyber skills gap widened and deepened. According to the (ISC)2 Cybersecurity Workforce Study 2023, the global cyber security workforce needs to grow by 89% to meet the current demand, and the skills gap is most acute in areas such as cloud security, application security, and risk management. Some organizations addressed the cyber skills shortage by investing in training and development, outsourcing and partnering, and leveraging automation and orchestration.
2024: A Year of Human-Centric Design, Privacy Weaponization and Zero-Trust Maturity
The year 2024 will be a pivotal year for cyber security, as the lessons learned from 2023 will shape the future direction and priorities of the industry. Some of the key trends and predictions for 2024 are:
- The adoption of human-centric design practices in cyber security programs. Human-centric design is a methodology that puts the individual, not technology, threat or location, as the focus of control design and implementation. It aims to minimize operational friction and maximize control adoption, by understanding the needs, preferences and behaviors of the users, and providing them with intuitive, convenient and personalized cyber security solutions. According to Gartner, 50% of CISOs will formally adopt human-centric design practices into their cyber security programs by 2027, up from less than 10% today.
- The weaponization of privacy as a competitive advantage. Privacy is not only a legal and ethical obligation, but also a strategic and business opportunity. Organizations that can demonstrate their commitment to protecting the privacy of their customers, partners, employees and stakeholders will gain a competitive edge in the market, as well as enhance their reputation, trust and loyalty. According to Gartner, by 2024, modern privacy regulation will blanket the majority of consumer data, but less than 10% of organizations will have successfully weaponized privacy as a competitive advantage.
- The maturity and measurability of zero-trust programs. Zero-trust is a security paradigm that assumes no trust in any entity or network, and requires continuous verification and validation of every request and transaction. Zero-trust aims to reduce the attack surface, prevent lateral movement and improve visibility and control of the cyber environment. According to Gartner, by 2026, 10% of large enterprises will have a comprehensive, mature and measurable zero-trust program in place, up from less than 1% today.
These trends and predictions indicate that cyber security in 2024 will be more human-centric, privacy-oriented and zero-trust-based, reflecting the changing needs and expectations of the stakeholders and the evolving nature of the threats and risks. However, these trends and predictions also imply that cyber security in 2024 will require more collaboration, innovation and adaptation, as well as more investment, education and regulation, to achieve the desired outcomes and benefits.
Cyber Security Predictions and Recommendations for 2024
- Cyber inequity: The gap between the cyber haves and have-nots will widen, as some organizations demonstrate cyber resilience while others struggle with cyber security challenges. The state of cyber inequity will be influenced by several factors, such as the level of digitalization, the availability of resources, the maturity of governance, and the exposure to threats. Cyber inequity will have significant implications for the global economy, society, and security, as it will affect the competitiveness, innovation, and stability of different regions, industries, and sectors. To address cyber inequity, organizations need to adopt a holistic and strategic approach to cyber security, and collaborate with other stakeholders to share best practices, resources, and intelligence.
- Geopolitical and technological transition: The global landscape of cyber security will be shaped by the ongoing geopolitical and technological transition, as the world faces rising tensions, conflicts, and competition among major powers, such as the US, China, Russia, and the EU. The transition will also be driven by the adoption and regulation of new technologies, such as 5G, quantum computing, blockchain, and the Internet of Things (IoT). These technologies will enable new capabilities and opportunities, but also introduce new vulnerabilities and risks. Organizations need to be aware of the geopolitical and technological context in which they operate, and align their cyber security strategies with their business objectives and values.
- Cyber resilience for a new era: The nature and scope of cyber threats will evolve and expand, as cybercriminals and state actors leverage more sophisticated and diverse techniques, such as ransomware-as-a-service, supply chain attacks, and cyber-physical attacks. The impact and consequences of cyber incidents will also increase, as they affect not only the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of data and systems, but also the safety, health, and well-being of people and the environment. Organizations need to build cyber resilience for a new era, by adopting a proactive and adaptive posture, integrating cyber security into their core functions and processes, and enhancing their ability to prevent, detect, respond, and recover from cyber incidents.
- Cyber ecosystem collaboration: The complexity and interdependence of the cyber ecosystem will require more effective and efficient collaboration among different stakeholders, such as governments, businesses, academia, civil society, and individuals. Cyber ecosystem collaboration will involve various aspects, such as establishing common standards and frameworks, developing and enforcing effective regulations, providing and obtaining cyber insurance, and securing the supply chain. Organizations need to build a better cyber ecosystem, by engaging and communicating with their partners and peers, participating and contributing to cyber initiatives and platforms, and fostering a culture of trust and cooperation.
Conclusion
Cyber security is a dynamic and complex domain that affects every aspect of our lives and society. The year 2023 was a challenging year for cyber security, as it exposed the gaps and vulnerabilities in the global cyber ecosystem, as well as the opportunities and potential for improvement and growth. The year 2024 will be a pivotal year for cyber security, as it will shape the future direction and priorities of the industry, as well as the expectations and behaviors of the stakeholders. Cyber security in 2024 will be more human-centric, privacy-oriented and zero-trust-based, but it will also require more collaboration, innovation and adaptation, as well as more investment, education and regulation, to achieve the desired outcomes and benefits.
