Cyber Influence Operations and the Elections

So, what is going on, in terms of cybersecurity and the elections? It seems like you cannot pick up the paper without an article or listen to the radio without some discussion in terms of the Russians and the elections. The reality is that what is going on in cyberspace is nothing new. The term used to describe these types of activities is Influence Operations (IO), and these are operations have existed since the dawn of the bronze age nation states. Think of the Greek and Persian Empires, and the Chinese dynasties. At some point these nations began to think of ways to move their advisories through propaganda, messaging, and political maneuvering. They found it cheaper and less risky than invasion and open warfare. The idea is to influence the population and the decision makers, it is to nudge your adversary in a particular direction. Influence Operations takes a long and strategic view; these are the propaganda campaigns between the Western Democracies and the Socialist States during the cold war; and today the IO contest continues, however it has now rooted in the realm of cyberspace. 

In terms of the US elections there is no evidence that any vote was changed, or any vote was not properly accounted for. The rush to all electronic voting has stopped.  Paper ballots are still used to tally votes in many counties, and they are used to validate electronic votes, they remain the ultimate check against ballot box manipulation.  For the nation state actors, the focus is not directly changing votes, the focus is more strategic than one election.  The IO operational goal is and has always been to sow dissent and mistrust to weaken, distract, and disorient their adversary. Their tool is misinformation. 

It is in social media where the ground has proven to be most fertile for these misinformation campaigns. It is the Russian intelligence services that have proven to be most imaginative in their use of social media to ignite the passions on the right and left of the political spectrum.  Some of their attempts to sway public opinion have fallen short, as they have been ill conceived and poorly executed. However, many of their actions to date have been well thought out and well planned. These are after all IO campaigns that have objectives with measurable results. They begin with investigations and reconnaissance, they move to creating multiple false personas or actors. In addition to real actors they create autonomous online actors or bots. These bots when directed can post and spread misinformation rapidly through the targeted social media outlets. They have been known to invest in their success. The House Intelligence Committee lists that the Russian Internet Research Agency paid for over 3,500 Facebook ads that supposedly reached 11.4 million users. In this instance the Russians employed Facebook advertising supporting both the Black Lives Matter and the Blue Lives Matter campaigns. The goal is to operate at the extremes of each group, it is to polarize and to obliterate the middle ground. The efforts of the Russians have been highlighted, however they are not acting alone. In parallel and independently are other nation state actors to include the Iranians and the Chinese. These efforts are not isolated, the same rule set is used against other countries in particular Western Europe. Of course, for each of these named countries ground zero for spreading misinformation to cause political confusion amongst opposition parties, are their own countries.  

To combat these threats the major players in the social media space are beginning to police user behavior. It is not hard to find the shrill exploiters of public opinion. The na?ve notion that all information and all opinions are of value, and they all need to be protected and respected is an artifact of an earlier day.  The point in this is all consumers of social media, and internet news need to be intelligent consumers. The old joke that states if “it is on the internet it must be true”, is indeed true but in reverse.  If you are on the internet you are by definition a consumer of information, that being the case it is easy to fall into the trap of believing what you want to be true.