Cutting Emissions from Cars, Trucks and SUVs: What We’re Getting Wrong

Every new EV that replaces a gas vehicle reduces air and noise pollution, money spent on gasoline, and dependence on foreign oil.?

But are we really scaling the use of EVs at the pace needed to hit our climate goals? Coltura’s new research shows that a simple count of the number of EVs sold is a deceptive scoreboard when it comes to understanding how effectively we’re reducing emissions from cars, pickup trucks, SUVs and other light-duty vehicles. We need to be looking more closely at gasoline consumption levels to measure progress if we're going to successfully reduce one-sixth of US carbon pollution that is caused by light-duty vehicles.?

Today, the average EV driver travels 7,165 miles annually, a stark contrast to the 11,642 miles clocked by their gasoline-powered counterparts. Between 2016 and 2022, electric cars covered 38% fewer miles per year than traditional gasoline cars, and electric SUVs lagged behind gas-powered SUVs by 21.5%. This mileage difference highlights an essential point: the emissions reduction impact of switching to an EV varies significantly based on who is behind the wheel.

Consider this: someone who trades their seldom-used gas car for an EV may reduce gasoline consumption by 100 gallons annually. In contrast, a high-mileage driver who switches to an EV could displace 1,000 to 2,000 gallons of gas per year—a 10 to 20 times increase. This discrepancy highlights the need to shift our focus from the sheer number of EVs sold to the metric that truly matters: gasoline reduction.

Right now, we are not on track to meet our national emissions reductions goals. The Biden Administration, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, set a target of cutting US emissions from all sources by 50-52% by 2030. Gasoline use must also go down at least 50% by 2030 to contribute its proportional share. However, the US Government’s Energy Information Administration projects gasoline use by light-duty vehicles to drop by just 10% by 2030 – well below target.

Tweaking EV incentive policies to target the drivers using the most gasoline could yield big results. Gasoline “Superusers," the top 10% of US private light-duty vehicle drivers in terms of gasoline consumption, are responsible for 35% of the gasoline— nearly as much as China.

Superusers tend to live in exurban and rural areas with low population density where housing is often more affordable, but long drives are required to get to work and daily conveniences like grocery shopping.

Gasoline Superusers are spending, on average, $530 every month on gasoline alone. That's more than 10% of their income, compared to just 3.5% for other drivers. Their gasoline use is an extreme financial burden.?

If the 10% of American drivers using the most gasoline switch to EVs, they would avoid about $150 billion in gasoline expenditures and reduce emissions from light duty vehicles by about 35%. Superusers would save, on average, $4,318 a year in fuel costs (the difference between gasoline costs and equivalent electricity costs where they live) by switching to an EV. And a Superuser switching to an EV displaces more than five times as much gasoline as a non-Superuser switching, with the result that many fewer total EVs are required to achieve climate targets.?

We should focus on helping Superusers make the switch to EVs to maximize climate and equity benefits. Targeted efforts led by state governments— such as EV outreach and education, tailored incentives to help with upfront cost, and the buildout of accessible charging infrastructure at their residences and workplaces— could prompt more Superusers to embrace EVs.?

It’s time to focus on cutting gasoline use, and not just on selling more EVs. Policies prioritizing the biggest gasoline users’ shift to EVs is the shortest road to the big cuts in gasoline use we need to meet our climate commitments.