Customer insights powered by the Macrobond Bloomberg Connector

This week’s charts are created by our customers to showcase the powerful capabilities of the Macrobond Bloomberg Connector. Each chart addresses a timely topic, including global interest rate movements, sector-specific performance trends and currency market dynamics.

Connecting to Bloomberg via their desktop API allows for the seamless integration of Bloomberg data and Macrobond's vast database in one platform, offering users enhanced analytical depth and flexibility.

Are recession fears overstated?

By Simon White , Macro Strategist, 彭博资讯

The market is now considering a recession as its base case. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) options, which assume a hard landing to be likely and a Federal Funds Rate of 3% or below by next June, now see a downturn as having a 50% probability. However, that's too pessimistic a view based on the data, which show a low chance of recession over the next three to four months.

ECB’s path to easing

James Bilson , Fixed Income Analyst, Schroders

Even after the recent rally, Eurozone policy rates are priced to go only fractionally below our estimate of neutral in Europe, which is around 2%. If we see growing signs of a weakening outlook in upcoming data, more accommodation will likely be needed from the European Central Bank (ECB) to support the economy.

Given that the ECB’s September 2024 inflation forecast has inflation reaching the 2% target only in 2026, further progress in reducing domestic price pressures will be needed for the central bank to speed up its cautious start to the easing cycle. ??

Restaurant slump signals rising pressure on US consumer spending ?

By Enguerrand Artaz , Global allocation fund manager, La Financiere de l'Echiquier (LFDE)

Far from the post-Covid euphoria that saw leisure consumption soar, the US restaurant sector is now in the doldrums. According to the National Restaurant Association index, activity in the sector has fallen sharply since the start of the year. This illustrates a phenomenon seen in other survey data, namely a refocusing of consumer spending on the most essential items.

From a forward-looking point of view, it is interesting to note that restaurant activity has generally correlated with, and even slightly led, trends in retail sales. At a time when the job market is weakening, US household consumption seems to be under increasing pressure.

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