On The Cusp: Celtic Sea FLOW Update, Q1 2025
A number of permutations could play out in the next few weeks for the Celtic Sea, hinging on three floating wind (FLOW) news items: Will LR5 be fully subscribed? Will AR7 bring success for test and development projects? Will AR4's TwinHub secure financing? A full house would be wonderful, a wipeout a massive disappointment but just one positive headline from any one of these three would be a significant boost to market confidence.
So, after hitting peak of the hype-cycle last quarter, brace yourselves for some ups and downs... but keep in mind that, for all the short-term turmoil of development, it is the long-term delivery that is vital to economic and social development in Cornwall, the South-West and South Wales. To effect this, this winter has seen real progress.
Eight locally-led consortia delivered "Industry Delivery Plans" (IDPs) through our Piranha+ programme and the development expenditure of twelve projects were supported through the Crown Estate (TCE)s Accelerator programme. All forging links between regional ports, infrastructure and the UK's private sector. This rapid scaling-up has made clear where regional ambition and capabilities match up; anchors and moorings, operations and maintenance, logistical services, workforce development. Hopefully in time to be "AR7 ready", the first Contract for Difference (CfD) round in which the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) will reward develop commitments to invest in less-developed areas. Even if the Celtic Sea opportunity ebbs more than it flows, scaling up regional capacity with an eye on a global market is "no regret activity".
Here's our quarterly overview of the development pipeline, opportunities and upcoming events.
Development Pipeline
Hexicon won the first and only CfD for a Celtic Sea FLOW project back in July 2022 (Allocation Round 4 - AR4). Advantaged by prior consenting and a ready-made grid connection but global events have put pressure on financing. Good news is keenly awaited to truly kick off Celtic Sea FLOW from this site close to the Cornish coast.
AR7 is now upon us and we wish all the best to; Flotation’s WhiteCross, BlueGem’s Erebus and; Floventis’ Llyr1. Recent CfD reform should assist T+Ds as well as reward early investment into regional supply chain - thereby putting the "stepping stone" concept into practice we trust.
The Crown Estate (TCE) are due to announce successful applicants into Leasing Round 5 by early summer 2025. Learning the names of three lucky winners will be helpful, learning their intent to invest in social value will be far more interesting. Crucially, we want to see full subscription in this first commercial round - a low turn-out would be a major knock to market confidence.
On standby. The latest is from November in TCE’s "Future of Offshore Wind" and "Marine Delivery Routemap".
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Opportunities
At least (at last) one major contract is out for tender in the Celtic Sea:
Will more flow later this year? We shall see. But they’ll be on PIRANHA if and when they do. Strategic market challenges are hosted on this B2B platform - to enable solution providers to get proactive rather than just standby on supplier’s lists.
We’d also implore you to sign up to the Offshore Wind Growth PartnershiP (now a vital route for businesses keen to scale-up in offshore wind) and read up on the Clean Industry Bonus (CIB) scheme for context (see Offshore Energy Alliance's excellent summary of CIB). Watch out too for the next round of The Crown Estate’s Accelerator fund. Investible propositions are key - now is the time to work up credible ambition.
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Upcoming Events
We’ve already had some excellent little events this year but they keep happening…
CSP have a hand in organising these ones:
And these come recommended not just because CSP will be speaking at them:
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Senior Supply Chain and Regions Manager, Offshore Wind, The Crown Estate
3 小时前Good work (yet again) from CSP. Well done Phil and colleagues.
Innovative Site Characterisation Professional | Reducing Ground Risk | Adding Value Through Creative Solutions
4 小时前Great insights! One small suggestion—spelling out acronyms on first mention can help ensure clarity for all readers, especially those who may not be familiar with them. Thanks for sharing
Observing the Cornish Economy - Past, Present and exciting Future Trustee - The Poly (Royal Cornwall Polytechnic Society)
6 小时前Looks like we've got a nervous two or three months ahead of us as we find out whether the short--listed companies for the first round of serious Floating Offshore Wind projects in the Celtic Sea can really make all the parts of the challenge come together - finance, technology, supply chains and politics. The answer is important for the UK. The degree to which this will impact Cornwall is still to be ascertained. I came across one Cornwall Councillor who is adamant that none of the Celtic Sea developments will benefit Cornwall. To him, all the benefits will go to South Wales, Ireland and France. For me, the picture is much less bleak - and Celtic Sea Power seem to be doing a good job of positioning Cornish players to optimise what they can get out of Celtic Sea developments. But first we have to find if the business case for Celtic Sea FLOW can really be made to stand up.