Curve Fitting the Coronavirus - A Follow Up

In the previous article, we discussed how not only has the Coronavirus (2019 Novel Coronavirus) been at the center of attention for the World Health Organization, but also how curve fitting assists in predicting the number of cases world-wide, outside of China, as well as the number of countries likely to be affected by the Coronavirus.

In this follow up article, we will compare the projections on a day by day basis, observing how well previous predictions panned out, as well as commenting on changes to the prediction curves.

Global Cases

We will start with the comparison of the curve fitting models for the data surrounding the number of reported global cases.

As can be seen, the situation here appears to have rapidly worsened. On 2/1, the more accurate curve returned to 0 new cases at 22 days. The next day, that was extended to day 27. The next day, it was day 35. The day after that, it was day 60. And today, that more accurate curve has flipped upward and hits 400,000 global cases by day 40, about 3 weeks from now.

 Although the rest of the world is doing well at quarantining individuals, in China, the quarantine process was started too late. As we will see later, more than 99% of the cases reside in China. Sadly, it appears as though a very significant portion of the Chinese population will be affected by the Coronavirus.

As a result, it appears as though the geometric growth of Coronavirus cases in China is overpowering the more controlled, quarantined cases outside of China.

It appears as though the Coronavirus may spread throughout the citizenry of China, with more than 1 million being affected in the next two months.

Death Toll

The death toll graph has likewise flipped, going from possibly zeroing out in a week, to inverting dramatically, possibly increasing to 5,000 in the next two weeks. Again, at this time this appears to be 99% China.

Non-China Cases

The curve fitting models for non-China cases have actually improved over time, with the caveat of today. But most models point to about a maximum of 200 individuals affected outside of China, with the peak case count being in about a week.

There are some caveats that may affect this.

1)     Hundreds of individuals have been evacuated from China, and those evacuees who are infected will skew the non-China case count, as they were infected inside China and then transported outside China.

2)     There was an upward blip in three countries today. Those countries were Japan, Singapore and Thailand. Japan had 13 new cases, while Singapore and Thailand each had 6 new cases. Japan, being an island, as well as having top notch medical facilities, should be able to manage this. However, Thailand, in particular, with its numerous neighboring countries, could be a concern. 

Countries Affected 

This is probably the most encouraging set of graphs of them all, as we see a downward, then stabilizing trend as we have progressed through the days. We may be near the peak of the countries affected, with the caveat of the upward blip in cases in Japan, Singapore and Thailand.

Percent China Cases

Finally, we look at a new set of graphs, which outline what percentage of the cases reside in China. Here, once again, we see that, if trends hold, this situation will continue to be primarily confined to China. In fact, these graphs predict it will be 100% confined to China in one week.

Does your business ever feel awash in data, unable to gain insights into what your corporate data means?

Could your business benefit from better vision into your corporate data?

Contact NPM Technologies today to benefit from the latest business intelligence methods to facilitate your company's success. 855-NPM-TECH or [email protected] or www.npmit.com.

#coronavirus #novelcoronavirus #2019novelcoronavirus #curvefitting #npm #npmtechnologies #who #worldhealthorganization #cdc #centerfordiseasecontrol #quarantine #businessintelligence #bi