The Curve?
What could Canada’s C-19 ‘curve’ look like? Inspired by a Global News article, 10 days ago I matched the confirmed C-19 cases in Canada with the ‘curve’ in Italy and started tracking.
With 10 days of data, I decided to share this information because of how closely and unexpectedly these data points line up so far. This post does not show the longer-term projection because it is speculative and not particularly optimistic. My hope is that the case trend in Canada will level off sharply in response to our extraordinary measures.
The forecast data I have created for Canadian cases based on the Italian information goes out to April 16th. If you really wish to see that projection, I have linked to a .PDF version below. Be warned - despite the close fit with the data so far, this analysis is crude. My aim was not to predict the Canadian cases, but to have a measurable point of reference using data from a country that sadly experienced the impact of the virus ahead of the spread in Canada.
The .PDF attachment also shows a graph of the new Italian cases per 100,000 (p.2) as well as current details on testing by province (p.3).
If you find this useful, leave me a comment or send me a message and I will provide further updates as more data is available. If you are interested in exploring a good data source, Italy has a very comprehensive GitHub repository that I have used in my analysis (https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19).
The same trends have been observed in almost every country reporting data. We're doing much better than in Italy thanks to lessons learned from others, our solid response and Canadian discipline. This is more obvious as time goes and reflected in your chart. Italy was hit extremely hard mostly because the virus appeared first in Lombardia, a region with a large percentage of retirees, older people more vulnerable to infections.
Facinating but scary
Multi-cloud | Solution Delivery Executive at Adastra
4 年That's encouraging. Thanks Paul! If you have a minute, check out the GitHub repo from Italy I reference at the bottom of my article. I haven't found a comparable data source for Canada, so let me know if you encounter one.
Not for long. The case doubling time has been steadily rising in Canada thru March.