Current US Policy Discourses on China

One of the most fiercely debated issues in the run-up to the US presidential elections is the US policy towards China. Ever since Donald Trump's elevation as the US President in 2016, relations between the two countries have witnessed a fundamental shift in US policy toward China. This article will highlight some key factors in the domestic arena that are influencing US policy towards China. It is critical to understand these factors to appreciate the changing nature of US policy towards China.

Differences beneath the apparent bi-partisan consensus

Despite claims of bipartisan consensus, profound differences among policymakers and academics influence US policy towards China. These differences arise from varying degrees of threat perception regarding the emergence of an assertive China. One section of China watchers contend that Washington is in long-term competition with Beijing and calls for a hard-headed policy-driven approach. Another section of academics and policymakers comprises those with long-term professional and personal ties with China and, therefore, are votaries of a cooperative relationship between the two countries. Yet another group includes those who believe in 'competitive co-existence,' stressing that foreign policy originates from the domestic sphere and is policy-oriented, focusing on business and technology. Finally, a particular section of retired military and intelligence officials advocate a hawkish position towards China and favor complete 'decoupling.'

Differing Images of China

The wide array of academic and policy discourses primarily stem from two factors. First, like other bilateral ties, US policy towards China is a response to China's pronouncements of its foreign policy ambitions. Given that China expresses these ambitions in 'vague terms', changing US policy discourse is determined by the topmost leadership's interpretations of Chinese actions. For instance, during the Trump administration, key members of Trump's team perceived China as an 'existential threat.' However, during the Biden administration, China was perceived as a country with which the US could 'manage competition' because it was a 'competition without catastrophe.'

Further, during the Trump administration, US policy aimed to punish China economically with economic sanctions and threats. During the Biden administration, US policy towards China has gone far beyond the economic realm to military, human rights, and so-called China's misadventures in East Asia in the South China Sea, East China Sea, the Korean peninsula, and the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, this administration has emphasized the merits of 'co-existence' and 'managing competition' with China.

Advocacy of divergent approaches towards China has prompted a wide array of portrayals ranging from a country with an 'over-sized self-conception,' a country that wants to 'overawe,' to a country lacking alternative values to the liberal order. A section of US academics and policymakers opine that the growing rise of China in structural terms has stemmed from the US failures to address the drawback of the rule-based liberal international economic order. However, significant sections of the policymaking community are drawing consolation from the recent downswing in China's economic fortunes and contend that the recent economic slowdown has checked China's ambitions to a certain extent and has had strategic implications.

Is the US in a Cold War 2.0 with China?

Given the differing images of China and its associated threat perceptions, there are differences of opinion regarding the US having a cold war with China. The Cold War 2.0 school camp argues that the US and China are engaged in a political slugfest contending for deeply embedded conflicting ideas and a marked degree of 'strategic mistrust.' The other group vehemently denies the existence of a Cold War, citing that, unlike the erstwhile USSR, China has shown no interest in any form of ideological conversion of other countries. Further, China's foreign policy choices are determined by nationalistic considerations aimed to 'overcome a century of humiliation.' Most importantly, China is not interested in engineering the collapse of a liberal system, which has made it the behemoth it currently is. Notwithstanding the debates revolving around the existence of a cold war with China, certain factors have complicated the US's decision to move towards China. So, what domestic considerations must one understand and appreciate while examining Us policy towards China?

Domestic Factors

First, the two major political parties, Republicans and Democrats, have different support bases, which affects their discourses on China. A significant section of Republican party supporters comprises those who are old, uneducated and reside in rural areas. Therefore, the Republican party, especially under Trump, gains from portraying China as the 'other.' For instance, this significant 'other' is projected as one responsible for stealing US jobs. Given the US political structure, where rural vote areas are overly represented, mobilization of the voters from rural areas has a considerable say in determining electoral outcomes; the Republican party has been vociferous in its anti-China rhetoric. The Democrats have also tended to portray China in terms of the significant 'other' but draw their appeal from California's Silicon Valley-based high-tech boys concerned about IPR theft and other associated business interests.

Further, inter-agency priorities have given rise to conflicts across various policymaking departments. In contrast, the Treasury and the Commerce departments have favored 'managing conflicts' with China and have argued against economic decoupling. These sections have argued in favor of 'derisking' rather than 'decoupling.' However, the Department of Defense and the intelligence community have advocated a far more unequivocally hawkish policy characterized by the sole objective of attaining 'nothing short of an outright victory.'

Irrespective of the US Presidential election outcomes, one can safely conclude that the US policy towards China will increasingly be one laced with competition and, at times, conflict. Either way, the US-China bilateral relations will significantly affect how India exercises its foreign policy choices.

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