The Current State of Global Cherry Production and Shifts in Export Markets
In most EU countries, the cherry harvest is underway. Depending on the region, weather conditions played a crucial role in this year's season. Frost, heavy rain and hail were the leading causes of the decline in yield and the quality of cherry fruits. On the other hand, warm and dry weather favored the period of fruit ripening, with better quality fruits and reducing the cost of treatment against diseases and pests. This year, Spain has suffered the most damage, with an estimated 30% reduction in yield. Italy also suffered frost damage in some regions, while minor spring frost damage was reported in the Netherlands and damage from the hale in late May. An increase in production is expected in Türkiye by about 10-15%, and in France, which increased production by 126%, compared to the disastrous 2021 season in which it suffered significant frost damage. A potential new player in the EU market of sweet cherries is Moldova, which in previous years has significantly invested in the modernization of production, introducing new varieties in demand in the global market.
Source: Moldovan Cherry Supplier
Asia, led by China, continues to grow in both consumption and production. It is estimated that the production of fresh cherries in China will reach 600,000 mt this year. Chile, the US, and Canada are the leading cherry suppliers to China. Chile still holds the top position in exporting fresh cherries globally despite challenges caused by the surge of COVID-19 cases which led to a lockdown, further worsening the port efficiency and influencing the global supply chain.
Weather conditions in North America marked the cherry production for the 2021/22 season. Snow and frost during flowering have reduced yields, depending on the growing region. In California, a 50% reduction in fresh cherry yields is estimated due to frost damage and heavy rainfall during the ripening period. Washington state, where unstable weather conditions have affected the decrease in yields by 60% in some orchards affected by frost and temperature oscillations.
According to the European Commission, a proposal was made to regulate several agricultural products, including cherries from Moldova, to improve their placement on the EU market. Currently, almost all products from Moldova can enter the EU market without tariffs within the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) between the EU and Moldova. Proposed measures aim to liberalize imports of the following products from Moldova: plums, table grapes, apples, tomatoes, garlic, cherries, and grape juice. The period of validity of the regulation will be one year. Negotiations are underway to increase road transport, which will boost exports from Moldova to the EU. According to price data on Tridge, wholesale cherry prices in Europe in W1 of June, depending on the variety and quality, were:
- Italy USD 2.46/kg
- Spain USD 2.68/kg
- Türkiye USD 0.68/kg
More on the Spain-Türkiye cherry status can be read on: Tridge Analysis Spain-Türkiye.
The price this year was influenced by various factors. In addition to production inputs costs such as fertilizers, pesticides, packaging, and the insecurity caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it caused logistics and trade difficulties. In Moldova, the wholesale price varied from USD 2.3-3.8/kg, depending on the variety and quality. The high price of fresh cherries is expected at the beginning of the season due to increased demand and low supply. The price is likely to fall with the increase in the volume of fresh cherries on the market. According to initial estimates in Moldova, the production of fresh cherries in the CY 2022 should be around 20,000 mt. Fruit growers from Moldova have increased their yields and improved the quality of their offer on the world market by introducing cherry varieties such as Rocket, Frisco, Cordia, Ferrovia, Carina, Big Star, and Regina. Demand for the Cordia and Regina variety has increased in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and the Americas. Currently, Moldova is among the Top 15 largest exporters of cherries, with total exports for 2021 at USD 5.34M.
Source: TradeMap
Globally, the decline in cherry production in North America will be reflected in higher prices, both in the domestic and imported markets, primarily in China. Despite logistical problems, Chile is expected to maintain its position as a leading exporter. In Europe, the situation is a bit more complicated. Due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and reduced production in Spain, changes in market trends are expected. Türkiye has high expectations for EU markets, while at the same time, it is looking to expand to the east and Asian markets such as China and South Korea. With the help of European Commission regulations and its geographical position, Moldovan cherry exports are expected to increase to the EU.