Current Security Threats Challenge the Political Leaders
Recent conflicts, such as the current escalation between the US and Iran, or the on-going warfare in Eastern Ukraine, serve as topical examples of the role played by ”cyber” and ”hybrid”, which emerged as buzzwords on security agendas around the world over the last two decades.
Hybrid threat means combining and synchronizing different means and methods of influencing, and acting in a covert and deniable way, aim both to confuse the adversary, or disrupt their actions without crossing the threshold of war. Such way of engaging adversaries in the so-called gray zone is expected to play an increasingly prominent role in conflict during this decade.
It is time to refresh the discussion covering hybrid treats and bring it to a new level in order to succeed in the emerging security environment of the 2020s.
Fast Pace of Technological Development Affects Security
One of the key challenges in the current security environment plagued by hybrid threats is to keep up the pace with ever accelerating development of technology and the society-wide tide of digitalization. As a megatrend, technology becomes one with everything, turning ubiquitous, and thus calls for strong political attention together with honest evaluation of the security implications of the developments. Looking this challenge from the security perspective, it becomes clear that an ever-greater level of estimation and foresight is needed together with an ability to assess hybrid threats and risks of technology misuse.
As a concrete example, if we prepare ourselves in elections meddling by an external hostile party only by taking into account the interference tools and methods that we have witnessed to have been used and those that we have experienced earlier by ourselves, we are doomed to be always one step behind. On the other hand, it is necessary for us, and the decisionmakers, to admit that we will never be able to anticipate all the possible risks and avenues for attack.
Hybrid threat environment challenges citizens, business leaders, and political decisionmakers in particular in many new ways. For example, thinking about the concept of deterrence in the current threat space, or pondering proportional response to spread of fake news and or data manipulation targeting critical national information assets, new kinds of ‘red lines’ must be drawn, contingency plans created and political guidance envisioned and established. Thus, it is fair to say that today′s technology related security questions have truly entered the realm of high politics.
A Growing Gap
Unfortunately, despite many threat indicators sounding alarm, there seems to be a growing gap between policymakers and those championing the technological development. Political decision-makers do not quite understand the complexities of technology, and also do not fully appreciate its groundbreaking and society shaking impacts. At the same time, the most of those living in the bleeding edge of technological developments are not fully aware of the wide societal impacts of technologies they unleash to the world and the ensuing policy challenges.
The magnitude of this separation will be further highlighted during this decade, as the primary question in technological realm will not be about if something can be done – but why, when, where and by whom it will, or perhaps more importantly, should be done? In the world of politics, it becomes increasingly important to ask the question who can make well-informed decision governing technological advances, and the security implications that they will bring along? Answering these questions influences significantly how we can both preempt some and defend successfully against the emerging hybrid threats in this decade.
Holistic Approach Offers a Solution
A holistic approach to security is needed more than ever in the 2020s. Driving this need are the above discussed developments, where cyber operations and hostilities are increasingly becoming more integrated with other types of operations and hostilities forming into hybrid threats. Even if the role cybersecurity and technology will be emphasized more in political security analysis, a holistic perspective is essential to understand the big picture. As it is well presented in the latest Global Risks Report, a holistic approach is particularly needed when trying to understand various kinds of complex interconnections between different risks. Individual risks should not be separated under isolated assessment from the holistic security context, strategic approach and political decision-making.
Hybridity is a useful concept in thinking about the current security issues, since it embraces the interconnected nature of today′s threats and risks that we are experiencing. It also illustrates well the multiplicity of actors and the diversity of threats. Therefore, in politics “hybrid politics” is a cogent term to describe both the importance of a holistic approach and the importance of including also high politics into these matters.
One challenge lies in the fact that current policy actions and responses are based on a rather static and siloed situational understanding of the security environment, not fully recognizing the dynamic and holistic nature of hybridity. Having a more inclusive hybrid politics approach, it will be possible to find better answers also to current cyber challenges in the hybrid security environment.
Many societies have embraced the concept of comprehensive security as a necessity in order to provide security to their citizenry, improve their resilience, and prepare the societies for still unknown threats. In the comprehensive security model championed by countries such as Finland, the national security is built in tight, trust-based cooperation between the authorities, members of business community, non-governmental organizations, and citizens. The model is inherently inclusive, everyone can contribute to the shared security.
But that is not yet enough, as in hybrid politics it is necessary for us to think further. Collaborative thinking should extend even further than today, especially when preparing for threats that are not confined to national boundaries. Despite some recent isolationist tendencies in global politics, a co-operative approach between “like-minded nations” and with “like-minded global companies” is a prerequisite when countering effectively both current and emerging security threats. For us to be successful, a “shared responsibility” and “together”, instead of “alone” or “first”, have to become the keywords in this decade′s security thinking.