The Current Hype Cycle in Artificial Intelligence
Alok Aggarwal
CEO and Chief Data Scientist at Scry AI | Author of the book, "The Fourth Industrial Revolution and 100 Years of AI (1950-2050)"
Over the past decade, the field of artificial intelligence (AI) has seen striking developments. As surveyed in [141], there now exist over twenty domains in which AI programs are performing at least as well as (if not better than) humans. These advances have led to a massive burst of excitement in AI that is highly reminiscent of the one that took place during the 1956-1973 boom phase of the first AI hype cycle [56]. Investors are funding billions of dollars in AI-based research and startups [143,144,145], and futurists are again beginning to make alarming predictions about the incipience of powerful AI [149,150,151,152]. Many have questioned the future of humans in the job market, claiming that up to 47% of United States jobs are in the high-risk category of being lost to automation by 2033 [146], and some have gone as far as to say that AI could spell the end of humanity [141].
In this article, we argue that the short-term effects of AI are unlikely to be as pronounced as these claims suggest. Several of the obstacles that led to the demise of the first AI boom phase over forty years ago remain unresolved today, and it seems that serious theoretical advances will be required to overcome them. Moreover, the present infrastructure is ill-adapted to incorporating AI programs on a large scale, meaning that it is improbable that AI systems will be able to soon replace humans en masse. Therefore, the predictions mentioned above are unlikely to be met in the next fifteen years, and financiers may not receive an expected return on their recent investments in AI.
Read the full article here: https://scryanalytics.ai/the-current-hype-cycle-in-artificial-intelligence/
Director and CEO driving business growth and transformation
7 年AI is so often misunderstood, you've done yourself credit in this piece Alok.
Investment Director at Parkwalk Advisors; Director at Cytora, Gripable, M-Spin, Psyomics and Wayland Additive
7 年Excellent summary on ai
COO, co-founder, board member, angel investor
7 年Great capturing of some practical views on the hype of AI. Although I love the tech and problems, we need to maintain practical views like you layout. Progress has been made, jobs have improved or disappeared, and there is money to be made in the continuing advances. Yet, nothing like the hype we hear. My 10+ years of experience across the range of AI from geospatial to autonomous to IoT to cyber to business has proven time and time again we are best to view AI as the other AI "assisted intelligence," which I read in a Forbes article recently. Human context, experience, and reasoning are still the key to solving real world challenges, or more importantly innovative advances. Cognition is about decision making, and although some behaviors are predictable with AI monitoring today, humans are still unpredictable as they reason or swarm together for a cause or purpose. "Human in the loop" with the machine has much greater potential then AI alone to accelerate whatever cause, purpose, or objective we all care about.
Passionate About Cleaner Energy & Quality Education
7 年Fantastic article Aloke. These hypes are created either by people having strong self interest or by people who have no clue about AI. Definitely all the research around AI and it's applications are very useful. But we are far from real AI. And the hype around it is too much.
Financial Professional at Prudential
7 年Great article. Worth reading??