The current games in the UP election

All the strategists are in play in UP. Each one of them is trying to eke out the 2-3% needed to fashion a big win UP. A review of the strategic/ tactical games played by various parties in UP

BJP

Offense: Dalit Votes. UP leads in crimes against dalits and the BJP is attempting to persuade a large number of dalit voters to abandon Mayawati to vote for BSP. The argument, continuation of the SP government will ensure that crimes against dalits grow unabated. With Mayawati increasingly below the radar (and pollsters could be totally wrong as they have been in the last 2 years), a vote for Mayawati is being argued as a wasted vote. Every 1% swing here takes BJP closer to a big win in UP

Defense: Upper Caste and OBC Vote. Akhilesh and co have been aggressively playing the development card and the whole range of offers for youth and women. Both these groups are much more volatile and open to changing sides. Particularly those who have access to TV and internet. This group constitutes about 12% of all voters. While the BJP has a 6% to 3% advantage over SP, every 1% swing towards SP gives SP a 2% advantage over the BJP. In defense, the BJP has been talking about the Ram Mandir, triple talaq and numerous other emotional elements (anti romeo squad for college going women) that ensure that these voters stick to the BJP.

The BJP's achilles heel continues to be the lack of a pan UP leader and it continues to rely on its regional leadership strategy with the overall Modi branding. This decision alone is likely to cause some damage to the BJP but then announcing a candidate may have caused more damage. There is no solution at this moment.

SP-INC

Offense/Defense: UC and OBC youth and female vote plus business community. The negative impact of demonetisation is being used in select locations where cash was a big part of the business. There is a feeling that a small proportion of the business community is likely shift away from the BJP due to the financial hurt cuased by demonetisation. Akhilesh and co talk extensively about their offers for youth (employment related) or development (affecting all caste groups), pension related (women) giving their campaign a more generic feeling instead of a caste based strategy. He also talks about dial 100 as an enhancement to the law and order situation in UP. The Akhilesh campaign is also trying to retain some of the Brahmin and Thakur vote that came to the two alliance partners independently but they lose out on account of the alliance.

SP-INC donot have a clear strategy on tackling dalit voters who may be leaving BSP for BJP. This lack of strategy exposes the party to the possibility of losing an election due to Mayawati's poor election strategy (just to add, the polls could be totally wrong)

In sum, it remains to be seen if these strategies by both alliances are being implemented effectively on the ground. The lack of any public opinion polls means we will have no idea if a major swing has occurred until counting day. However, watch out for the tonality and words of the campaign. The shriller the campaign, the more likely that the party feels it is losing. I shall keep you posted.