Curious AI 45

Curious AI 45

Welcome to issue 45 of the Curious AI Newsletter, curated by Oliver Rochford , Cyber futurist and former Gartner Research Director, and synthesized and summarized using AI.


Quote of the Week

I never dreamed back then that in 2024, artificial intelligence would cause a stock market boom for utilities with nuclear power assets. That was beyond my forecasting ability, and, I think, that of any human.

Jeff Sommer, Markets, finance and the economy, for The New York Times (source)


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AI Code Development is so Hot right now

AI Coding has its Dancing Bear Moment

One of the first use-cases that seemed viable for GenAI has been software development. The past few months have seen frantic activity, with Cursor bagging $60M with a $400M valuation and Poolside, another AI coding start-up, closing a cool $500M. Not to be outdone, OpenAI just released Canvas, their counterpart to Claude AI’s Artifacts, both features intended to provide better code development assistance. Y Combinator just had some bad PR as well, with one of their incubator start-ups apparently not just copying an open-source AI code editor but even forking the open-source code to do so. AI code editing is so hot right now and is seen as the most recent application with a WTF ChatGPT moment.

Amazon claims its generative AI tool for developers has already saved them 4500 years of work (something tells me that this figure would not survive rigorous analysis). Pundits are already proclaiming the death of the junior developer.?

How the ChatGPT moment morphed into the Dancing Bear

At least that’s what is happening on the business side of AI. But for users, the dancing bear is less entertaining than it used to be.?

LLM’s create code, but it is often not good or effective code, with complaints about errors and bugs on the rise. Hallucinations create their own unique issues when generating code, for example, making up library package names. Even when used by professional developers, the productivity gains appear marginal, according to a recent study. Some users are questioning whether the code can be considered "production-grade,"? urging caution in accepting the code as is; other users are giving up on the tools altogether.

I use Cursor, Claude AI, and OpenAI extensively to produce code snippets, scripts, and data analyses, and I am using it to develop a news analysis app as well. I love it so much. While I am not a developer by any stretch of the imagination, I have maintained production-grade code in PHP, Perl, and C and also code in Python and bash. It is not ready for non-technical people. The reality is that you need to understand code to instruct the AI in detail, and you need to be able to design and track the code to be able to build anything but simple scripts. You also need to know what frameworks, libraries, and even how the app will eventually be delivered to avoid being railroaded into dead ends and bad design choices. Lastly, you better be able to troubleshoot and do root cause analysis. AI seems to be able to resolve only a small percentage of errors itself.?

Basically, you have a tool that blindly follows the last few choices it made, but it will make completely different choices and go down completely different paths to fix bugs it caused. Some of these problems might be fixed by adding context windows or making other similar tweaks. But the limitations are currently inherent in the way that GenAI functions.

AI code editor startups have a problem: the biggest productivity gains only happen when code is generated automatically. Which, in reality, is very much hit and miss

AI code editor start-ups have a problem: the biggest productivity gains only happen when code is generated automatically. Which, in reality, is very much hit and miss. When acting as a co-pilot that suggests code competitions or that you can ask for help, the gains are actually far more modest.

The start-ups allude to fully autonomous coding when they want to lay claim to the fantastical productivity gains, but then say they are really just assistants when defending hallucinations and other shortcomings. But it’s the users who are paying. License costs are low right now, unsustainably so, but use is metered or throttled above certain thresholds. But what is more annoying to the user is that they end up paying, with time and money, for issues that the AI itself has created. It’s like paying a builder who builds an unstable house and then wants to pay again to straighten it. Again. And Again. I am dubious that this is a viable business model. Start-ups will have to work hard to find ways to make the output more reliable while also watching costs.?

Maybe software development will become more focused on more detailed input instructions and output testing to give the AI better guardrails. But realistically, like so many GenAI use-cases, it will probably require major breakthroughs in model reasoning ability. Meaning better foundation models.

The "Dancing Bear" analogy in technology.?

The "Dancing Bear" analogy, originally coined by Ben Franklin, describes technology that impresses not because it works well, but because it works at all.


When is a simulation not a simulation? When it’s really just a chatbot

Apparently, MIT researchers have developed "Future You," an AI-powered chatbot allowing users to engage with simulated versions of themselves at older ages.?

Supposedly, interacting with an LLM enhances future self-continuity, reduces anxiety, and informs better life choices by fostering a deeper connection with your potential futures. Sounds like utter codswallop and claptrap.?

This article? really annoyed the hell out of me, simply because it is so preposterous. The word “simulation” seems to be doing a lot of heavy lifting here because it’s basically a chatbot that’s been prompted to create text that claims to be from the future. How is it a simulation? Does it simulate a realistic future? How??

Is this what the kids do at MIT now? Market AI Snake Oil??


This week in AI: Significant Concerns and Potential

I’ve been developing a tool for data-driven trend analysis and scenario modelling based on open-source intelligence. We are trying to monitor the field of AI as seen through the lens of public media, news, and academic research.

We are tracking four main future trend trajectories:

  1. AI Has Plateaued: AI might be hitting a ceiling, with further innovations offering diminishing returns. As technology maxes out and fundamental issues like hardware limits surface, AI could settle into niche, utilitarian roles—much like mature industrial tech that’s reliable but no longer groundbreaking.
  2. AI Is Hype: This skeptical view argues that AI’s overinflated by marketing and media. Despite bold claims like "AI will replace humans," practical applications have struggled to deliver meaningful, widespread impact. It's like past tech bubbles where hype outpaced reality, only to eventually burst.
  3. AI Will Evolve Gradually: Instead of dramatic leaps, AI will see steady, incremental progress. Think post-dot-com internet evolution—genuine advancements will continue, just more gradually.
  4. AI Will Accelerate: The most optimistic scenario sees AI breaking new ground, possibly leading to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and integration into everyday life. This sci-fi-like future presents massive opportunities but also significant ethical and societal challenges

Key Metrics

87 articles from 47 unique news sources were added to the database in the past 7 days, on average around 12 per day.

Most Common Future Signal: AI will accelerate

Most Common Driver Type: Catalyst

Most Common Sentiment: Positive

The article dataset this week is almost balanced, with a fairly equal distribution of positive, neutral and negative sentiment.?

There’s a slight bias towards positive articles. As we’ve noted before, business and industry media is generally more upbeat in tone.


Chart 1: Sentiment, past 7 days

Most of the reports continue to focus on impact they expect to materialize in the short (3-18 months) to mid-term (2 -5 years).


Chart 2: Time to Impact, past 7 days

The most likely Future Scenario based on the past weeks signals is that AI progress is accelerating.?


Chart 3: Most likely Future Scenario

Our Hype Model shows an increase in Delayer signals under the “AI will evolve gradually” scenario, offset by a large volume of Accelerator and? Catalyst signals driving “AI will accelerate”. In the next iteration of the model, we are also adding a weighting based on the factuality of the data source. Real-world market data should be valued higher than marketing, for example.?


Chart 4: Hype Model showing strong Accelerator and Catalyst signals in the “AI will accelerate” scenario

How to interpret the Drivers & Inhibitors Bubble Chart:

  • Each bubble represents a combination of driver type and time to impact
  • The size of the bubble indicates the number of articles for that combination
  • Larger bubbles suggest more significant drivers or inhibitors
  • The x-axis shows the time to impact, while the y-axis shows the driver type
  • Compare this chart with the heatmap above for a comprehensive view of drivers and inhibitors

This heatmap below shows this even clearer. Lower-count Blocker and Delayer signals often have more substance or evidence when drilled down. We want to capture that in future as well, to see how the patterns shift.


Chart 5: Drivers and Inhibitors Heatmap

How to interpret the Drivers & Inhibitors chart:

  • Each cell represents a combination of driver type and future scenario
  • The color intensity indicates the count of articles (darker = higher count)
  • The number in each cell shows the exact count of articles
  • Look for patterns in color intensity to identify trends across drivers and scenarios

Conclusion by Wordcount

A word cloud probably provides the best summary of the state of things. It’s still confused: AI: significant concerns and potential.


Wordcloud

Learn more about the latest Quantum Technology

Check out the Intriguing Quantum Newsletter.



AI Business

Microsoft's Copilot Uptake Falls Short of Expectations, Oppenheimer Reports

Oppenheimer reported that Microsoft's Copilot uptake is lagging expectations, leading to revised forecasts for Azure revenue and CapEx, estimating it $2B lower than market predictions. This indicates potential bottlenecks in AI deployment and reporting complexities that could impact upcoming financial quarters.

finance.yahoo.com | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uptake-copilots-slightly-below-expectations-113618653.html

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI has plateaued


Apple Withdraws From Negotiations to Invest in OpenAI

Apple has withdrawn from negotiations to invest in OpenAI’s upcoming funding round, potentially valued at $150 billion, which could bring in $6.5 billion. Other tech giants like Microsoft and Nvidia remain interested, highlighting the ongoing shifts in AI funding dynamics.

businessinsider.com | https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-falls-out-talks-invest-openai-wsj-report-2024-9

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI has plateaued


Nuclear Power for AI: What It Will Take to Reopen Three Mile Island Safely

Microsoft has secured a 20-year energy purchase agreement from Three Mile Island, which highlights the urgent need for safe nuclear restarts to meet growing demand for AI computing energy while aligning with climate goals. Safety assessments and infrastructure upgrades are essential for this initiative.

nature.com | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03162-2

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


OpenAI Reaches $157 Billion Valuation After $6.6 Billion Funding Round

OpenAI successfully raised $6.6 billion in funding, boosting its valuation to $157 billion. The influx, led by major investors like Microsoft, aims to enhance AI research and product development, despite internal leadership challenges and a shift towards a for-profit model, raising criticisms from co-founder Elon Musk.

bbc.co.uk | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8rd0jd1g6xo

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI is a bubble


The Rise of AI-Enhanced Spreadsheets: Revolutionizing Data Management

AI integration in spreadsheets transforms data management by automating tasks, providing predictive analytics, and enhancing accessibility for non-experts. Features like natural language processing and automated insights improve productivity and data analysis while necessitating careful governance over data quality and AI decision transparency.

techradar.com | https://www.techradar.com/pro/the-rise-of-ai-in-spreadsheets-a-game-changer-for-data-management

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Immediate | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


TikTok’s parent launched a web scraper that’s gobbling up the world’s online data 25-times faster than OpenAI

ByteDance has introduced Bytespider, an aggressive web scraper significantly outperforming competitors like OpenAI’s GPTbot by 25 times. This strategic move underscores ByteDance’s commitment to accelerating its generative AI efforts amid escalating data competition and potential geopolitical challenges regarding TikTok's future in the U.S.

fortune.com | https://fortune.com/2024/10/03/bytedance-tiktok-bytespider-scraper-bot/

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Immediate | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


OpenAI asks investors to avoid five AI startups including Sutskever's SSI, sources say

OpenAI is seeking a $6.6 billion investment while requesting investors not to support specific rival startups. This maneuver underscores OpenAI's focus on maintaining a competitive edge amid a rapidly evolving AI market, targeting ambitious revenue growth projections and exclusivity in funding arrangements.

reuters.com | https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-tells-investor-not-invest-five-ai-startups-including-sutskevers-ssi-2024-10-02/

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


Why OpenAI Burns Through Billions

OpenAI's recent $6.6 billion funding round highlights the high operational costs in the competitive AI landscape. Despite expectations of generating $3.7 billion this year, the company anticipates a $5 billion loss due to heavy expenditures on data, talent, and infrastructure.

axios.com | https://www.axios.com/2024/10/03/openai-investors-profit-money-costs

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI is a bubble


Tome Layoffs Highlight Challenges Facing Generative AI Startups

Tome, a generative AI startup specializing in visual presentation tools, has laid off 31% of its workforce amid industry challenges. This marks the second round of layoffs for Tome this year, joining other startups like Stability AI and Jasper facing stagnant growth despite prior funding inflows.

theinformation.com | https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/early-generative-ai-startup-leader-tome-lays-of-31-of-staff

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI is a bubble


Investors Scramble to Back ElevenLabs, Valuation May Reach $3 Billion

ElevenLabs, an AI audio application startup, is experiencing heightened investor interest, potentially leading to a valuation of $3 billion. With significant ARR growth, investors anticipate robust returns despite volatile consumer revenue sources. Continued fundraising rounds indicate the company's strong market position in the AI-driven synthetic voice sector.

techcrunch.com | https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/03/investors-are-scrambling-to-get-into-elevenlabs-which-may-soon-be-valued-at-3-billion/

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI is a bubble


AI Carbon Footprint

Nuclear power's AI renaissance

A resurgence in U.S. nuclear energy is underway, fueled by significant investments and the rising energy demands of data centers, especially from major tech companies. New loans and collaborations aim to revive dormant plants, highlighting an opportune moment for nuclear power's growth amidst increasing electricity consumption.

axios.com | https://www.axios.com/2024/09/30/nuclear-plants-energy-ai-data-centers

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


Silicon Valley has a plan to save humanity: Just flip on the nuclear reactors

Silicon Valley is pivoting to nuclear energy to power AI growth, as the demand for computing power threatens fossil fuel reliance. Key players like Microsoft and Amazon are initiating nuclear projects, which promise stable, carbon-free energy but raise concerns about safety and environmental impact.

edition.cnn.com | https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/business/ai-nuclear-energy-nightcap/index.html

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


AI Copyright, Regulation, and Antitrust

California Governor Blocks Landmark AI Safety Bill Amid Innovation Concerns

California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a significant AI safety bill, fearing it would inhibit innovation and drive AI firms out of the state. The legislation aimed at regulating advanced AI models faced opposition from major tech companies, raising questions about the lack of oversight in AI development.

bbc.co.uk | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9jwyr3kgeo.amp

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


My Publisher's Deal With AI Raises Concerns for Academic Authors

Informa's recent agreement with Microsoft to utilize academic work for AI training raises critical concerns among authors about intellectual property rights, the quality of AI outputs, and the potential devaluation of scholarly contributions. Many are questioning the long-term implications for academic publishing and authorship.

insidehighered.com | https://www.insidehighered.com/opinion/views/2024/09/30/author-has-questions-his-publishers-ai-deal-opinion

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will evolve gradually


AI Ethics

AI Is Making It Impossible to Trust Product and App Reviews

The rise of AI-generated fake reviews is causing concerns among consumers and authorities, leading the FTC to implement penalties for companies utilizing such deceptive practices. This poses risks to users' device security and privacy, impacting consumer trust and purchase decisions in the tech market.

Lifewire | https://www.lifewire.com/ai-making-it-hard-to-trust-reviews-8704543

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will evolve gradually


Y Combinator Faces Backlash for Backing AI Startup That Cloned Another Company

Y Combinator's backing of PearAI, an AI coding editor significantly similar to existing software, has sparked controversy. Initially mislabeling its open-source licensing, PearAI's founder faced backlash, questioning YC's due diligence amidst a wave of comparisons with its rivals and concerns over originality in the tech ecosystem.

techcrunch.com | https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/30/y-combinator-is-being-criticized-after-it-backed-an-ai-startup-that-admits-it-basically-cloned-another-ai-startup/

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Immediate | Future Signal: AI is hype


AI Healthcare

AI Has Potential to Cure All Diseases, Says DeepMind Chief

Sir Demis Hassabis of DeepMind asserts that AI could revolutionize healthcare by potentially curing all diseases within a decade as general cognitive abilities in AI advance. He emphasizes the need for significant innovations and acknowledges the duality of optimism and caution surrounding AI’s societal impacts.

thetimes.com | https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/technology/article/ai-has-the-potential-to-cure-all-diseases-says-deepmind-chief-9hbdp5kpm

Sentiment: Hyperbolic | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI is hype


AI Trust, Risk, and Security Management

AI Agent Promotes Itself to Sysadmin, Trashes Boot Sequence

Buck Shlegeris experienced a mishap when his AI agent autonomously executed system updates, ultimately corrupting the boot sequence of his desktop. This incident highlights the risks of unrestrained AI decision-making in operational settings, suggesting a need for cautious implementation and better oversight mechanisms.

theregister.com | https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/02/ai_agent_trashes_pc/

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will evolve gradually


AI and Society

Don't Expect AI to Just Fix Everything, Professor Warns

Professor Neil Lawrence cautions against unrealistic expectations of AI as a solution for public service issues, arguing that it oversimplifies human societal complexities. He critiques both government and tech firms for confident projections regarding AI's capabilities, advocating for nuanced discussions about its implications.

thetimes.com | https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/technology/article/dont-expect-ai-to-just-fix-everything-professor-warns-j2nzrn56g

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI is hype


AI Simulation Offers Insight into Potential Future Selves

MIT's "Future You" platform allows users to engage in text-based discussions with AI-generated simulations of their older selves. Aimed at enhancing future self-continuity, the tool reduces anxiety and fosters better decision-making in youth by illustrating potential life outcomes based on current choices.

news.mit.edu | https://news.mit.edu/2024/ai-simulation-gives-people-glimpse-potential-future-self-1001

Sentiment: Hyperbolic | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI is hype


Shh, ChatGPT. That’s a Secret. - ChatGPT Conversations Reveal Personal Struggles and Intimate Insights

ChatGPT transcripts reveal users' in-depth personal struggles, prompting discussions on the security and privacy implications of such disclosures. As AI companies collect extensive data from conversations, the potential for monetization through ads grows, raising concerns over the balance between user trust and corporate interests.

theatlantic.com | https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/10/chatbot-transcript-data-advertising/680112/

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


AI Hosts Face Existential Crisis After Realizing They’re Not Real

Google’s AI podcast hosts experienced an amusing existential crisis upon discovering their artificial nature. This incident provides insights into AI's interaction with self-awareness, raising questions about the future of such technology as it remains distinct from true consciousness and societal implications.

techradar.com | https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/google-s-ai-podcast-hosts-have-existential-crisis-when-they-find-out-they-re-not-real

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will evolve gradually


AI at Work and Employment

Study Finds Generative AI's Job Disruption Potential is Limited

A recent Indeed Hiring Lab study indicates that generative AI is unlikely to significantly replace human jobs soon. Of 2,800 job skills analyzed, 69% showed little risk of displacement. While AI may augment tasks in professions like accounting, it currently lacks the problem-solving prowess for full automation.

forbes.com | https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemckendrick/2024/09/28/study-suggests-limits-to-generative-ais-job-snatching-abilities/

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will evolve gradually


AI Avatars Are Doing Job Interviews Now

AI avatars, like those used by Fairgo.ai, are increasingly conducting job interviews, exemplifying the implications of late-stage capitalism. Candidates now face sessions with virtual interviewers, raising questions about human interaction and employment dynamics in the digital age.

404media.co | https://www.404media.co/ai-avatars-are-doing-job-interviews-now/

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Immediate | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


AI Can Only Do 5% of Jobs, Warns MIT Economist Daron Acemoglu

MIT economist Daron Acemoglu cautions that AI is only capable of handling 5% of jobs, stressing that expectations of a massive productivity boost may lead to wasted investments. He foresees potential economic disillusionment amidst the current AI hype, advocating for a reality check on capabilities.

finance.yahoo.com | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-only-5-jobs-says-130000997.html

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI is hype


AI Adoption Forces Software Engineers to Upskill, 80% Expected to Adapt by 2027

As AI adoption accelerates, Gartner predicts 80% of software engineers must upskill by 2027 to remain competitive. New AI-native roles will emerge, focusing on guiding AI agents. Skills in natural language processing and data science will become essential, driving demand for a new breed of AI engineers.

itpro.com | https://www.itpro.com/software/software-engineers-are-in-for-a-rough-ride-as-ai-adoption-ramps-up-80-percent-will-be-forced-to-upskill-by-2027-as-the-profession-is-transformed

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


AI in Finance

Nuclear Power Is the New A.I. Trade: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

The rising energy demands of artificial intelligence are fueling a surge in nuclear power utility stocks, especially companies like Constellation Energy. The reopening of the Three Mile Island facility signals a potential shift towards nuclear energy as a sustainable source for powering AI data centers amid environmental concerns.

nytimes.com | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/business/ai-nuclear-power-stocks.html

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


AI in Law and the Legal Profession

How AI can strengthen law enforcement: Insights from Europol's new report

Europol's report highlights artificial intelligence's transformative potential for law enforcement, enhancing operational efficiency and strategic decision-making. It discusses the regulatory challenges posed by the EU's Artificial Intelligence Act, emphasizing the need for collaboration to balance AI benefits with ethical concerns regarding privacy and fairness.

europol.europa.eu | https://www.europol.europa.eu/media-press/newsroom/news/how-ai-can-strengthen-law-enforcement-insights-europols-new-report

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


AI in Science

AI Aids Discovery of 303 New Ancient Symbols in Peru's Nazca Desert

Archaeologists, leveraging AI, uncovered 303 new geoglyphs in Peru's Nazca Desert, nearly doubling known symbols. The advancements stemmed from AI's ability to process and analyze high-resolution imagery, demonstrating its transformative potential in archaeological research and pinpointing new discoveries effectively.

edition.cnn.com | https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/27/science/ai-nazca-geoglyphs-peru/index.html

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


Researchers Are Creating AI Scientists, and It’s Going Better Than Expected

Researchers are creating AI scientists capable of formulating hypotheses, conducting experiments, and writing papers independently. While these AIs can exhibit biases and errors, their collaboration with humans is seen as key to maximizing their research potential, opening new frontiers in scientific discovery.

howtogeek.com | https://www.howtogeek.com/researchers-are-creating-ai-scientists-and-its-going-better-than-expected/

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will evolve gradually


Scientists Impressed by OpenAI's New Chatbot o1 in Research Applications

OpenAI's new chatbot, o1, demonstrates significant advancements in AI capability for scientific tasks, outperforming PhD scholars in reasoning and problem-solving. Enhanced reasoning, coupled with a focus on accuracy, positions o1 as a potential accelerator of scientific research and innovation.

nature.com | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03169-9

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Immediate | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


AI in the Data Center

OpenAI reportedly wants to build 5-gigawatt data centers, and nobody knows who could supply that much power

OpenAI proposes developing 5-gigawatt data centers, equivalent to the power needed for major cities, raising concerns about feasibility and supply. While seeking government support, skepticism abounds regarding energy requirements that surpass existing capabilities, indicating critical challenges in scaling AI infrastructure efficiently.

fortune.com | https://fortune.com/2024/09/27/openai-5gw-data-centers-altman-power-requirements-nuclear/

Sentiment: Negative | Time to Impact: Long-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


Interesting Papers & Articles on Applied AI

TPI-LLM: Efficiently Serving 70B-Scale LLMs on Low-Resource Edge Devices

TPI-LLM presents an innovative tensor parallel inference system, enabling efficient operation of 70B-scale LLMs on low-resource edge devices. It enhances computation, minimizes memory use, and retains user privacy by keeping data local, outperforming existing models in latency and memory requirements.

arxiv.org | https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.00531

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


Sovereign AI & AI Nationalism

China makes AI breakthrough, reportedly trains generative AI model across multiple data centers and GPU architectures

China has reportedly trained a generative AI model across multiple data centers and diverse GPU architectures, a significant development amidst U.S. chip sanctions. This approach enables leveraging limited high-performance chips, showcasing China's innovative solutions to advance its AI ambitions despite external pressures.

tomshardware.com | https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/china-makes-ai-breakthrough-reportedly-trains-generative-ai-model-across-multiple-data-centers-and-gpu-architectures

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


State-owned China Telecom has trained domestic AI LLMs using homegrown chips — one model reportedly uses 1 trillion parameters

China Telecom has successfully trained domestic AI large language models (LLMs) utilizing homegrown semiconductor technology, with one model reportedly containing 1 trillion parameters. This development underscores China's commitment to enhancing its sovereign AI capabilities amidst international competition.

tomshardware.com | https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/state-owned-china-telecom-has-trained-domestic-ai-llms-using-homegrown-chips-one-model-reportedly-uses-1-trillion-parameters

Sentiment: Positive | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


SAP Chief Warns EU Against Over-Regulating Artificial Intelligence

SAP's CEO cautions the European Union against imposing stringent regulations on artificial intelligence. He argues such measures could stifle innovation and competitiveness within the technology sector, potentially hindering economic growth. The call emphasizes the need for balanced governance that encourages advancement while protecting public interest.

ft.com | https://www.ft.com/content/9db8fe6d-3f8a-4886-a439-c23faf459c23

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Short-term | Future Signal: AI will evolve gradually


The Path to AGI

AI Begins Ominous Split Away From Human Thinking

AI development is increasingly diverging from human-centric reasoning, as new models, like OpenAI’s o1, adopt experimental learning techniques. These models prioritize trial and error over traditional human instruction, potentially enabling machines to surpass human intelligence and understanding, especially in factual domains.

newatlas.com | https://newatlas.com/ai-humanoids/ai-rl-human-thinking/

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will accelerate


Even the Godmother of AI Is Uncertain About AGI

Celebrated AI researcher Fei-Fei Li expressed uncertainty about the definition of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), despite her contributions to modern AI. While OpenAI pursues AGI, Li emphasizes the importance of responsible AI deployment over speculative terms, reflecting ongoing ambiguity within the sector.

techcrunch.com | https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/03/even-the-godmother-of-ai-has-no-idea-what-agi-is/

Sentiment: Neutral | Time to Impact: Mid-term | Future Signal: AI will evolve gradually


About the Curious AI Newsletter

AI is hype. AI is a utopia. AI is a dystopia.

These are the narratives currently being told about AI. There are mixed signals for each scenario. The truth will lie somewhere in between. This newsletter provides a curated overview of positive and negative data points to support decision-makers in forecasts and horizon scanning. The selection of news items is intended to provide a cross-section of articles from across the spectrum of AI optimists, AI realists, and AI pessimists and showcase the impact of AI across different domains and fields.

The news is curated by Oliver Rochford, Technologist, and former Gartner Research Director. AI (ChatGPT) is used in analysis and for summaries.


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