Curated Compositions-6 May 23
Brian Rendell
Leadership | Education | Business | Logistics | Talent Acquisition & Development
AFRICA
Khartoum fighting continues despite new ceasefire in Sudan
Fierce fighting is continuing in Khartoum, Sudan, as the army tries to push back the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from around the presidential palace and army headquarters, in spite of a supposed seven-day ceasefire in the conflict that erupted on April 15.
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Residents and survivors say 136 killed in Burkina Faso massacre, blaming army
Residents and survivors of a massacre in a Burkina Faso village said on Saturday 136 people including women and infants were killed, blaming the country's security forces for the April 20 attack. A prosecutor last week launched a probe into the massacre which took place in the northern village of Karma and surrounding areas, following reports that people wearing the uniforms of the Burkinabe armed forces had killed around 60 civilians.
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Sudan’s spiralling war, in maps
THE WAR in Sudan, which began on April 15th, has already forced almost 400,000 people from their homes. Tens of thousands have crossed into neighbouring countries, including Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Sudan (see map 1). The UN expects as many as 800,000 refugees in the coming weeks and months.
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ASIA
Verified videos show two explosions over the Kremlin.
Video footage verified by The New York Times shows what appear to be two drones exploding minutes apart above the Kremlin early Wednesday, in what Russian officials claim was a Ukrainian attack, which Ukraine denies. Videos show two aerial objects flying toward the domed roof of one of the compound’s buildings, with one coming from the south and the second approaching 15 minutes later from the east. Both exploded, and one caused a brief fire, though it is unclear if the explosions happened on impact or just prior.
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The Ambitious Dragon: Beijing’s Calculus for Invading Taiwan by 2030
Chinese president Xi Jinping has a strategic window, in the 2030 timeframe, when favorable conditions exist to forcefully annex Taiwan if peaceful unification is not achieved before then. This hypothesis is based upon the fact that an emboldened China intends to fulfil its imperial—and geostrategic—objectives through expansionist behavior against Taiwan. The three main factors examined are (1) President Xi’s “cult of personality” as a totalitarian leader to support the why of the invasion timeline, (2) the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) defense modernization as an enabling planning factor, and (3) Chinese demographics against the backdrop of domestic election cycles and President Xi’s life expectancy. These three factors offer a strategic harbinger that, if President Xi continues to pursue annexation of Taiwan, the PLA will be prepared by 2027, and he will likely take steps to realize these ambitions by 2030 as China’s population ages, while pursuing unification to solidify his historic legacy in his lifetime. This article will begin with an overview of the current geopolitical tensions, provide an explanation for the fundamental factors contributing to President Xi’s window of opportunity, and conclude by providing an integrated assessment of relevant global security.
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EUROPE
The coronation of King Charles III: Memorable moments in photos and videos
King Charles III and his wife, Queen Camilla, have been crowned in an elaborate ceremony at Westminster Abbey in London on Saturday, in the company of family, faith leaders and more than 2,000 guests. Charles became king as soon as his mother, Queen Elizabeth II, died in September. In this sense, Saturday’s ceremony doesn’t carry legal significance. But it’s steeped in symbolism, and — for those who still care about the British monarchy — a chance to celebrate the passing of the baton in a centuries-old institution that still plays a highly visible role in modern British life.
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Nord Stream: Report puts Russian navy ships near pipeline blast site
Russian ships able to perform underwater operations were present near to where explosions later took place on the Nord Stream pipelines, according to an investigative documentary. The vessels were reportedly located using intercepted Russian navy communications. Underwater explosions last September knocked the two Nord Stream pipelines - built to carry gas from Russia to Europe - out of action. The cause of the blasts is unclear. Formal investigations are still taking place in countries close to the blast site. So far, they have said only that they believe the explosions were the result of sabotage rather than any kind of accident. But one possible lead pointing towards Russian involvement has emerged from details of suspicious Russian ship movements in the run-up to the Nord Stream blasts, reported by four Nordic public broadcasters and an accompanying English-language podcast Cold Front. And Denmark's Defence Command has confirmed a separate report that a Danish patrol boat called Nymfen took 26 photos of a Russian submarine-rescue ship in the area days before the explosions. The Information website said the SS-750 had sailed from Kaliningrad and was close to Bornholm island on 22 September 2022.
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Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine
In total, the United States has committed more than $36.4 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including more than $35.7 billion since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24, 2022
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Poland spends $3.1 billion on short-range air defense upgrades
Poland’s Defence Ministry has awarded two contracts worth about 13 billion zloty (U.S. $3 billion) to boost the nation’s short-range air defense capabilities. Under the first contract, valued at roughly ￡1.9 billion (U.S. $2.4 billion), the government ordered Common Anti-air Modular Missiles, or CAMM, as well as iLaunchers from European consortium MBDA. The weapons will be part of Poland’s 22 Pilica+ very-short-range air defense batteries. In a statement, MBDA called the forthcoming procurement “the largest European short-range air defense acquisition program in NATO.”
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Germany, Italy clamp down on Italian mob with raids, arrests
Police across Europe arrested dozens of people, raided homes and seized millions of euros in assets on Wednesday, in a coordinated crackdown on Italy’s ’ndrangheta organized crime syndicate, one of the world’s most powerful, extensive and wealthy drug-trafficking groups. The operation, coordinated by European Union judicial cooperation agency Eurojust, aimed to dismantle a network that includes the n’drangheta, Colombian drug producers and paramilitary groups, and moves tons of cocaine to Europe and Australia each year. The investigation uncovered how these networks used ports in Ecuador, Panama and Brazil to ship the Colombian drugs to northern European ports while also dealing in weapons. The drug proceeds were then laundered through restaurants, ice cream shops and car washes, and money sent back to Colombian drug producers via a Chinese wire transfer service, according to Italian officials and a Carabinieri press release.
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MIDDLE EAST
Second Merchant Vessel Seized within a Week by Iran
On May 3 at approximately 6:20 a.m. local time, Panama-flagged oil tanker Niovi was seized by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The oil tanker departed Dubai and was transiting from the Arabian Gulf toward the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates when a dozen IRGCN fast-attack craft swarmed the vessel in the middle of the strait. The IRGCN subsequently forced the oil tanker to reverse course and head toward Iranian territorial waters off the coast of Bandar ‘Abbas, Iran. A previous incident occurred six days ago when the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy seized Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Advantage Sweet while it transited international waters in the Gulf of Oman. Iran’s actions are contrary to international law and disruptive to regional security and stability. Over the past two years, Iran has harassed, attacked or interfered with the navigational rights of 15 internationally flagged merchant vessels.
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Turkey election: Erdogan rival Kilicdaroglu promises peace and democracy
Danger comes in many forms. For Turkey's long-time leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it comes in the shape of a former civil servant, given to making heart emojis with his hands. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, backed by a six-party opposition alliance, says if he wins he will bring freedom and democracy to Turkey, whatever it takes. "The youth want democracy," he told the BBC. "They don't want the police to come to their doors early in the morning just because they tweeted." He is the Islamist leader's main rival in elections on 14 May and has a narrow lead in opinion polls. This tight race is expected to go to a second round two weeks later.
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Turkey’s Resilient Autocrat
In late February, after a huge earthquake devastated a large swath of his country, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faced one of the greatest challenges of his political career. With a presidential election three months away, the government’s response to the humanitarian disaster was feckless and chaotic. On top of that, Erdogan’s economic policies had caused runaway inflation and many of Turkey’s citizens were fed up with his strong-arm rule. And as Erdogan’s popularity tumbled, a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties, led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the chair of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), seemed surprisingly disciplined and organized. After 20 years in power, Erdogan was poised to lose control of Turkey.
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Is Erdo?an on His Way Out?
We are approaching what will likely be the most consequential Turkish election in more than two decades. The results of the presidential and parliamentary vote on May 14 will have profound consequences—not only for Turkish democracy, but for the geopolitics of the Middle East, Europe, and the United States. President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have held power for two decades. During that time, they have transformed the country’s political system, grown increasingly authoritarian, and failed to keep the economy prospering. The regime may be more vulnerable to defeat than ever. Yet the race remains neck and neck.
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Islamic State leader killed in Syria by Turkish intelligence services, Erdogan says
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Turkish intelligence forces killed Islamic State leader Abu Hussein al-Qurashi in Syria. "This individual was neutralized as part of an operation by the Turkish national intelligence organization in Syria yesterday," Erdogan said in an interview with TRT Turk broadcaster. Erdogan said the intelligence organization had pursued Qurashi for a long time. Syrian local and security sources said the raid took place in the northern Syrian town of Jandaris, which is controlled by Turkey-backed rebel groups and was one of the worst-affected in the Feb. 6 earthquake that hit both Turkey and Syria.
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NORTH AMERICA
Active duty troops headed to the US southern border again
About 1,500 active duty troops will be deployed to the U.S. southern border to assist Homeland Security Department personnel in advance of an expected new wave of migrant crossing attempts later this month, according to officials close to the plan. Homeland Security confirmed the news in an unsigned release Tuesday afternoon, saying that it requested the 1,500 troops for 90 days “due to an anticipated increase in migration.” Fox News first reported the mission on Tuesday morning.
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Migrants find tips on Chinese version of TikTok for long trek to U.S.-Mexico border
The difficulty of obtaining U.S. visas and the economic after-shocks of China’s COVID lockdowns have led to a sharp increase in Chinese nationals presenting at the U.S.-Mexico border – and some of those arrivals, like Wu, learned about how to come online, migrants, immigration experts, attorneys, and current and former U.S. officials, told Reuters. Over the course of three weeks photographing and reporting from a remote border stretch in southeastern Texas, Reuters witnessed hundreds of Chinese migrants crossing into the United States and interviewed more than two dozen in Mandarin. All of those interviewed said they got the idea to take the land route to the United States on social media and drew on influencers, private groups and comments to plan their trips.
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US, Mexico agree on tighter immigration policies at border
U.S. and Mexican officials have agreed on new immigration policies meant to deter illegal border crossings while also opening up other pathways ahead of an expected increase in migrants following the end of pandemic restrictions next week. Homeland Security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall spent Tuesday meeting with Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and other top officials, emerging with a five-point plan, according to statements from both nations. Under the agreement, Mexico will continue to accept migrants from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua who are turned away at the border, and up to 100,000 individuals from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador who have family in the U.S. will be eligible to live and work there.
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GOVERNMENT
The COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates for Feds and Contractors Are Officially Ending
The White House announced on Monday it's officially ending the COVID-19 vaccine mandates for federal employees and contractors when the public health emergency ends on May 11. Both requirements have already been on pause for a while due to legal challenges. The White House also announced that the Health and Human Services and Homeland Security Departments are going to start the process to end their vaccine requirements for international travelers, Head Start educators and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services-certified facilities. More guidance will be issued in the coming days for these. The vaccine mandates for federal employees and contractors were issued in September 2021, with options for religions and medical exemptions. For federal employees, as of early December 2021, the White House said the federal government had a 97.2% compliance rate with the mandate and 92.5% of employees had received at least their first vaccine dose.
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SPACE
Elon Musk Expects SpaceX to Spend Around $2 Billion on Starship Rocket This Year
SpaceX anticipates spending about $2 billion on its Starship rocket program this year and might not need to raise additional outside funding as that work unfolds, according to founder and Chief Executive Elon Musk.?He added that the company has the manufacturing capability to continue producing hardware for Starship as it works to fly the vehicle to orbit. “We do have a production line that if it takes us 10 flights, we’ll do it,” he said.
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CYBER
Largest International Operation Against Darknet Trafficking of Fentanyl and Opioids Results in Record Arrests and Seizures
[On May 2, 2023], the Department of Justice, and its Joint Criminal Opioid and Darknet Enforcement (JCODE) team and international partners, announced the results of Operation SpecTor, which included 288 arrests – the most ever for any JCODE operation and nearly double that of the prior operation. Law enforcement also conducted more seizures than any prior operation, including 117 firearms, 850 kilograms of drugs that include 64 kilograms of fentanyl or fentanyl-laced narcotics, and $53.4 million in cash and virtual currencies. Operation SpecTor was a coordinated international effort spanning three continents to disrupt fentanyl and opioid trafficking on the darknet, or dark web.
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
'Plagiarism machines': Hollywood writers and studios battle over the future of AI
The Writers Guild of America is seeking to restrict the use of artificial intelligence in writing film and television scripts. Hollywood studios, battling to make streaming services profitable and dealing with shrinking ad revenues, have rejected that idea, saying they would be open to discussing new technologies once a year, according to the guild. A spokesperson for the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which is negotiating the contract on behalf of the studios, did not comment. The dispute over AI is one of several issues that led Hollywood’s film and TV writers to strike Monday, marking the first work stoppage in 15 years. Although the issue is one of the last items described in a WGA summary of negotiating points, many of which focus on improving compensation in the streaming era, the debate over AI's role in the creative process will determine the future of entertainment for decades to come.
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I Cloned Myself With AI. She Fooled My Bank and My Family.
The good news about AI Joanna: She never loses her voice, she has outstanding posture and not even a convertible driving 120 mph through a tornado could mess up her hair. The bad news: She can fool my family and trick my bank. Maybe you’ve played around with chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard, or image generators like Dall-E. If you thought they blurred the line between AI and human intelligence, you ain’t seen—or heard—nothing yet. Over the past few months, I’ve been testing Synthesia, a tool that creates artificially intelligent avatars from recorded video and audio (aka deepfakes). Type in anything and your video avatar parrots it back.
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ECONOMY
Federal Reserve Raises Rates, Signals Potential Pause
Federal Reserve officials signaled they might be done raising interest rates for now after approving another increase at their meeting that concluded Wednesday. The unanimous decision marked the Fed’s 10th consecutive rate increase aimed at battling inflation and brings its benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, a 16-year high.
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Federal Funds Effective Rate
Scrambling to Avoid Default, White House Weighs Debt-Limit Fallback Options
The Biden administration and Capitol Hill leaders are scrambling to avoid a first-ever government default that could arrive as soon as June 1, taking potential alternative strategies more seriously after months of deadlock over raising the country’s borrowing limit. Publicly, both Republicans and Democrats are still sticking to their demands as the clock ticks. GOP lawmakers are seeking to force cuts to federal spending in exchange for supporting raising the debt limit, while Democrats continue to call for a debt-limit increase without any other policy conditions. Privately, though, Biden administration officials and lawmakers have started to weigh potential alternatives to their negotiating position, including a short-term increase in the borrowing limit that would buy them time to find a compromise, according to people familiar with the matter. Biden administration officials are also taking a fresh look at experimental ways the U.S. could potentially keep paying the government’s bills even if Congress doesn’t raise the debt limit, the people said.
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Most of the country’s missing workers are no longer missing
The U.S. economy has recovered 75 percent of the 4 million workers who stopped working due to retirements, lack of childcare and health concerns. But some industries are still struggling.
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Job Openings Near Two-Year Low as Layoffs Jump
U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in March and layoffs rose sharply, in signs that demand for workers is cooling a year after the Federal Reserve began lifting interest rates to combat inflation. Layoffs rose to a seasonally adjusted 1.8 million in March from the prior month, up from a revised 1.6 million in February, the Labor Department said Tuesday. The increase was led by job losses in construction, leisure and hospitality and healthcare industries—sectors that have driven job growth in recent months as tech, finance and other white-collar industries cooled. Employers also reported a seasonally adjusted 9.6 million job openings in March, the Labor Department said Tuesday, a decrease from a revised 10 million openings in February. Openings reached their lowest level in March since April 2021 and are down from the record 12 million recorded last March. But they remain well above levels before the pandemic and exceed the 5.8 million unemployed people looking for work in March.
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U.S. Trade With World Rose in March on Energy, Auto Shipments
U.S. trade with the rest of the world increased in March as companies shipped more oil, natural gas and vehicles overseas and exported more products to China after it lifted Covid restrictions. U.S. businesses also imported more consumer goods, but reduced imports of industrial supplies and capital goods. The trade figures aren’t adjusted for inflation and reflect both demand and price changes.?Separate data released Thursday pointed to further cooling in the labor market. Initial claims for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, increased by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 last week, the Labor Department said. In January, the weekly level of claims was near 200,000. The upward trend in claims this year is consistent with other labor market data showing an easing from ultrahot levels. U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in March and layoffs rose sharply. Economists estimate that Friday’s jobs report will show job growth slowed somewhat in April and the unemployment rate increased slightly.
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Big Tech’s Rebound Plays to Individual Investors’ Growth-Stock Bets
Shares of large U.S. technology companies are powering the broader market higher again, vindicating many individual investors who bet big on growth stocks. Together, Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Meta Platforms Inc, Microsoft Corp., Netflix Inc., Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. comprise roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s market cap, according to FactSet. That means they have an outsize influence on the direction of the major stock index. They represent an even bigger share of the average individual investor’s portfolio at about 50%, according to Vanda Research. Many of those investors got burned last year when tech stocks tumbled as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to tame inflation. But this year’s rebound in the shares, punctuated by some stronger-than-expected earnings reports last week, is comforting those who have stuck with growth-oriented plays. Meta shares, for instance, jumped 13% last week when the company reported its first sales increase in nearly a year; the stock has doubled this year. Microsoft rose 7.5% last week after reporting faster-than-expected sales growth, extending its year-to-date gains to 28%.
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CEO Tim Cook says layoffs are a ‘last resort’ and not something Apple is considering right now
Apple doesn’t have plans for big layoffs, CEO Tim Cook told CNBC while discussing the company’s earnings on Thursday, in a stark contrast from Big Tech peers like Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon, which have cut thousands of employees this year. “I view that as a last resort and, so, mass layoffs is not something that we’re talking about at this moment,” Cook told CNBC’s Steve Kovach. Cook didn’t rule out the possibility of job cuts but said that Apple isn’t planning any and that such a move would only be a “last resort.” Apple is cutting costs, however, and has slowed its rate of hiring, the CEO said. Apple slowed hired during the pandemic more so than many of its rivals. It’s one reason why it might be better positioned not to lay off employees now in response to macroeconomic conditions. But the company also remains extremely profitable. During its March quarter earnings report on Thursday, it reported $24 billion in net income on $95 billion in total revenue.
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New York and California lost over $90 billion in income to low-tax states during Covid
New York and California lost over $90 billion in income during Covid as taxpayers moved to other states, accelerating the trend of high-earners relocating to lower-tax areas. New data from the Internal Revenue Service shows that New York state lost $25 billion in adjusted gross income due to outmigration in 2021, on top of $20 billion lost in 2020. California reported a net loss of $29 billion in 2021, following a loss of $18 billion in 2020. Combined, the two states lost $92 billion across the two years. The data shows that the income flight from high-tax states to low-tax states, which has been happening for years, picked up steam during Covid. The income losses for California and New York in 2021 were more than three-times their combined losses in 2019, before the pandemic took hold in the U.S. The biggest winner in the migration has been Florida: The Sunshine State gained a net 128,000 households in 2021, bringing over $39 billion in income, according to the IRS data, a huge jump from the $28 billion gained by the state in 2020. Palm Beach County, which includes the exclusive town of Palm Beach, gained over $11 billion in income alone in 2021, according to the IRS. Texas was also a winner, adding $11 billion in income. California’s loss was largely Texas’ gain, with over $5 billion moving from California to Texas. Other winners included Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona, which gained about $14 billion in income combined.
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Column: China slips away from Treasuries but sticks with dollar bonds
Although China's selling of U.S. Treasury securities over the past year raises multiple geopolitical questions, it's merely switching to other dollar bonds - casting doubt about a more alarming strategic investment shift. What China scaled back in exposure to Treasuries last year was more than compensated by a rise in purchases of U.S. agency debt, valuation-adjusted calculations from Federal Reserve economists Carol Bertaut and Ruth Judson show. Taken as one bucket, China actually increased its combined exposure to U.S. government and quasi-government assets in 2022. But it's still hooked on dollars. China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries last year shrank by $173.85 billion, Bertaut and Judson's figures show, the second-largest fall on record after the $189 billion slump in 2016, around the time of China's mini devaluation. Beijing's stash of U.S. government bonds ended last year at $862.3 billion, the lowest since May, 2010, according to Refinitiv data.?Meanwhile, China's holdings of U.S. agency bonds last year rose by $50.9 billion and valuation effects accounted for $34.8 billion. This means the real increase was $85.9 billion, substantially more than the decline in Treasuries holdings.
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Major foreign holders of United States treasury securities as of January 2023
According to the Federal Reserve and U.S. Department of the Treasury, foreign countries held a total of 7.4 trillion U.S. dollars in U.S. treasury securities as of January 2023. Of the total 7.4 trillion held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 859.4 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.
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REAL ESTATE
The Building Boom Is Prolonging Market Pain
The building boom has helped push unemployment to around its lowest level in more than 50 years. That is perplexing investors who want to see the Federal Reserve switch course on interest rates. Construction spending and employment have risen to new records this year, boosted by government outlays for infrastructure, a domestic manufacturing renaissance and a wave of apartment building that got off to a slow start during the pandemic when prices for building materials, such as lumber, were sky high. Construction companies with jobs ranging from airport overhauls to bathroom renovations say they have enough work booked to maintain payrolls—for years in some cases. Even home builders, who slowed down last year when rates began to rise, are ramping up into spring. The 2008 crash kicked off a deep recession and a yearslong home-building slump that left the U.S. severely short of housing. Meanwhile, millions of homeowners are locked into historically low mortgage rates, which is keeping existing homes off the market and stoking demand for new construction, builders and analysts say. New-home sales climbed 9.6% in March, the Census Bureau said.
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Tight Supply Fuels Demand for Newly Built Homes
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tight-supply-fuels-demand-for-newly-built-homes-8f9a43d9 Home builders are enjoying stronger-than-expected business this spring, capitalizing on the recent fall in mortgage rates and the shortage of existing homes for sale. Last year’s rapid rise in mortgage rates made home purchasing far more expensive for most buyers, slowing home sales and pressuring the home-building industry. Home builders pulled back on land acquisition and new construction. Now, new single-family home sales are bouncing back with supply tight in the existing-home market. Active listings in March stood at roughly half of where they were four years earlier, according to Realtor.com, in part because higher mortgage rates made many homeowners reluctant to sell and give up their current low rates. (News Corp, parent of the Journal, operates Realtor.com.) That low inventory has put home builders in a good spot. Newly built homes made up about one-third of single-family homes for sale in March, according to data from the Commerce Department and the National Association of Realtors. The proportion of newly built homes reached nearly 35% in December, a record in data going back to mid-1982 and up from a historical norm of 10% to 20%.
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领英推荐
These indicators tell us the housing market is hitting the brakes
We've seen a recent smattering of data across housing and real estate, and all signs point to a gradual but clear weakening of the market. First, we can look to shrinking profit margins on home sales. The latest numbers from property data service ATTOM showed that for typical home sales in the US, gains dipped to a two-year low through the first three months of the year. The drop in profits marked the third consecutive quarter of nationwide slumps, and it coincided with falling home prices in three-fourths of the country.?Since peaking in the second quarter of last year, median home prices have tumbled 7%, according to ATTOM. As the Fed's aggressive policy pushed all kinds of borrowing costs higher, mortgage rates at one point last year hovered above 7%, and affordability worsened for many home buyers.?"It is possible that the upcoming peak buying season of 2023 could lead to increased profits, owing to favorable mortgage rates and other factors," ATTOM chief executive Rob Barber said.?"Over the next few months, we can expect to gain more clarity regarding whether the current market stagnation is a short-term aberration or a more significant trend." Another sign pointing to a softer housing market is lumber. Prices for the key building commodity dropped another 4% yesterday toward multi-year lows. Data for March shows pending home sales unexpectedly dropped 5.2% in the month (economists were forecasting an increase of 0.5%). While housing may be slowing for the moment, researchers are still warning of a bubble that's set to pop in the next decade, fueled by jarring shifts in demographics on the horizon. Millennials, who are now between their mid-20s and early 40s (that is, prime home-buying years), have helped push up prices, and the largest generation since the Baby Boomers is creating a wave of demand that surpasses supply of houses for sale.?But that's going to reverse in the decade ahead as Boomers age out of the housing market and post-Millennial generations shrink.?That opens the door to a potential housing glut and crash in home prices.
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Mortgage Rates
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PERSONAL FINANCE
With car repossessions and home foreclosures rising, some Americans are living on a financial cliff
The slowdown is starting to show up in Americans' personal finances. According to a recent survey from Bankrate, 49% of U.S. adults have less savings compared to a year ago. Ten percent of those surveyed said they have no savings at all. The upshot: The most disastrous outcomes for U.S. households, like auto repossessions and home foreclosures, have begun to climb. Meanwhile, home foreclosure filings have begun to surge. According to data from ATTOM, a property analytics company, U.S. foreclosure filings totaled 95,712 in the first quarter of 2023. That's 6% higher than in the previous quarter and 22% higher than a year ago. March alone saw 36,617 U.S. properties in foreclosure, a 20% increase compared to February and 10% higher than a year ago. It was the 23rd consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity.
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What Fed Rate Increases Mean for Mortgages, Credit Cards and More
As the Federal Reserve has steadily lifted its key interest rate over the past year, Americans have seen the effects on both sides of the household ledger: Savers benefit from higher yields, but borrowers pay more. Here’s how rising rates affect consumers.
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Warren Buffett’s ‘Secret Sauce’ Involves One of Investing’s Most Basic Strategies
What has made Warren Buffett’s stock portfolio so successful over time? One answer is an uncanny knack for picking good businesses. Another, according to Mr. Buffett, is something more understated: an appreciation of dividend-paying stocks. Dividend stocks are shares of companies that regularly return a portion of their earnings to shareholders, typically in the form of cash.
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BUSINESS
3 Failed Banks This Year Were Bigger Than 25 That Crumbled in 2008
Government regulators seized and sold off First Republic Bank on Monday, making it the third bank to fail this year after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed in March. The three banks held a total of $532 billion in assets. That’s more than the $526 billion, when adjusted for inflation, held by the 25 banks that collapsed in 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis.
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Bank Failures in Brief – Summary 2001 through 2023- https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/
NOTE: A good chart
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Most U.S. bank failures have come in a few big waves
NOTE: Another good chart
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The road to First Republic Bank's collapse
PMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) is buying most of First Republic Bank's (FRC.N) assets, which had been seized by United States regulators, in a last-ditch rescue for the strained lender, marking the third major U.S. bank to fail in two months. Last week, First Republic reported a more than $100 billion plunge in deposits in the first quarter that sparked a brutal sell-off in the lender's shares. Banks have been staring at the biggest crisis since 2008 after two U.S. lenders collapsed in March and the turmoil has ratcheted up fears of a contagion and prompted action from the U.S. Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury and the private sector.
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Regional-Bank Shares Dive as Investors Fret About Contagion
Regional-bank stocks tumbled Thursday despite assurances from the Federal Reserve that the banking system is on solid footing. PacWest Bancorp, which has been hit hard since the collapses of several banks, dropped by about 50%. The stock started falling in after-hours trading Wednesday evening, after a report that it was considering selling itself. ?PacWest said in a statement after midnight Eastern Time Thursday that its core customer deposits were up since the end of the first quarter, and that it hadn’t experienced any unusual deposit flows since the collapse of First Republic. Investors have been wondering how much further the problems in regional-banking could spread, and whether they will spill over to the broader economy. Some analysts said the decline in PacWest and others reflected the market’s tendency to view news as categorically good or bad, rather than worries about PacWest specifically.
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What every consumer should know about bank failures
f you have accounts at a financial institution that is insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, you can be confident your deposits will be covered at least up to $250,000. And in some circumstances it could be more. Here’s why: Each deposit account owner will be insured up to $250,000 — so, for example, if you have a joint account with your spouse, your money will be insured up to $500,000. Or if you have your own personal checking account and a jointly held business checking account at the same bank, your money in each of those accounts will be insured up to $250,000. If you are fortunate to have more than $250,000 stored at a single bank, review just how much of your money would be covered by FDIC insurance should your bank ever fail. (Use the FDIC’s Electronic Deposit Insurance Estimator.) If it turns out, say, your own checking and savings combined add up to more than $250,000 then you should transfer any money over that threshold and deposit it at another FDIC-insured bank. That way all of your money will be adequately insured.
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Fractional Reserve Banking: What It Is and How It Works
Fractional reserve banking describes a system whereby banks loan out a certain amount of the deposits that they have on their balance sheets. Fractional reserve banking facilitates lending, thereby expanding the economy. In most countries, banks are required to keep a certain amount of their customer's deposits in reserve. Banks with a low fractional reserve are vulnerable to bank runs because there is always a risk that withdrawals may exceed their available reserves. On March 26, 2020, the Federal Reserve reduced reserve requirements for all depositary institutions to zero. Instead, banks are now paid a specific interest rate on their reserve balance to encourage holding reserves.
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Shrinking US cattle herd squeezes meatpacker profits
Now, the U.S. beef cow herd is the smallest since 1962. Drought and high feed costs drove producers to send animals to slaughter instead of keeping them for breeding. Farmers who fatten cattle have gained leverage in sales negotiations over the meatpackers that dominate the market, such as Tyson Foods Inc (TSN.N), Cargill Inc (CARG.UL) and JBS USA (JBS.UL). Paying more for cattle cuts into the meatpackers' profitability. They will likely try to pass on costs to customers, charging more for ground beef and steaks at a time of high inflation, analysts said.
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TECHNOLOGY
Air travel chaos looms as US keeps 5G altimeter refit deadline
The US will not delay a deadline for airlines to refit planes with new sensors to address possible 5G interference, despite concerns the cut-off date could cause travel disruption. Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on Tuesday that airlines were told the 1 July deadline would remain in place. Airlines have warned that they will not be able to meet the deadline and may be forced to ground some planes. Telecoms firms have previously delayed 5G rollout to allow airlines to adapt. In the US, the radio frequencies being used for 5G are in part of the spectrum known as C-Band. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and aviation companies have previously raised concerns that C-Band spectrum 5G wireless could interfere with aircraft altimeters, which measure a plane's height above the ground. In a call with airline companies on Tuesday, Mr Buttigieg told them to work aggressively to retrofit their planes before the deadline, according to the Reuters news agency.
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Push to Expand 5G Coverage Would Cost USAF At Least $2 Billion, Brown Says
The sale to commercial entities of the 3.3-3.45 gigahertz portion of the electromagnetic spectrum—called the S-band—would cost the Department of the Air Force well upwards of $2 billion, Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. and Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman told the Senate Armed Services Committee this week. Telecommunications companies seeking to grow their 5G business, and some members of Congress, are urging the Federal Communications Commission to auction off access to the S-band, after a bill to permit it died in the last session of Congress. Similar auctions for other parts of the spectrum have generated billions of dollars for the government in recent year. Military leaders continue to balk, however, saying the loss of that part of the spectrum would severely compromise their operations.
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SCIENCE
The U.S. Is Running Out of Research Monkeys
America’s monkey shortage is getting worse. The pandemic has exacerbated a continuing supply crunch, throttling research and threatening the country’s ability to respond to public health disasters, including the next pandemic. That is according to a new report published Thursday by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine that noted that new ways of studying biology, using artificial-intelligence models or cells in culture, aren’t ready to replace testing in monkeys. A lack of funding to expand breeding colonies at U.S. centers, as demand for research monkeys grew, is a leading contributor to the shortfall. Federal funding to national primate centers dipped by 23% over the past decade, according to the new report.
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ENERGY
China’s Oil Strategy Mixes Diplomacy and a Domestic Drilling Push
China’s biggest oil companies are increasing their drilling at home and signing big deals overseas, part of a push for energy security that has also led to rising trade with countries that are subject to U.S. sanctions. China’s demand for crude oil is likely to hit 15.6 million barrels a day this year, around 5% higher than last year, according to a forecast from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The country is the second-largest consumer of oil after the U.S., so any change in its behavior could have a big impact on global prices. China’s domestic oil companies produced 18.2 million tons of crude in March, the highest level since December 2014, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Also in March, Cnooc Ltd., one of the largest state-owned oil majors, said it discovered an oil field in the Bohai Sea, in the country’s northeast, that would add a hundred million tons of reserves to China’s oil supply.
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Shell, Equinor profits beat forecasts as trading offsets lower energy prices
Energy giants Shell (SHEL.L) and Equinor (EQNR.OL) reported higher-than-expected first-quarter profits on Thursday, using the heft of their trading desks to offset lower oil and gas prices. The stronger-than-expected profits from the two companies follow forecast beating results from rivals Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), Chevron and BP over the past week.
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Oil Prices Under Pressure on Economic Fears and Gusher of Russian Supply
Oil prices, including the global benchmark Brent crude, are well below where they stood in early April after Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of the OPEC+ cartel said they would reduce output to stabilize the market. Saudi Arabia is due to cut starting this month. Moscow said it would extend unilateral curbs that took effect in March and were framed as a retaliation against Western sanctions on its oil, to the end of the year.?Unexpectedly high Russian output could cause tension between Moscow and Riyadh, analysts and energy executives say. Their relationship—cemented by Saudi Arabia’s defense of oil prices—has supported the Russian economy since the West hit it with sanctions after the Ukraine invasion early last year. The two countries are the most powerful players in OPEC+, an alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of countries that clubbed together when oil markets cratered in 2016. They share an interest in stopping crude from slumping again: Saudi Arabia wants to fund an expensive makeover of its kingdom, while Russia is trying to plug a budget deficit while waging war on Ukraine.
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EDUCATION
‘Waste of time’: Community college transfers derail students
Every year, hundreds of thousands of students start at community colleges hoping to transfer to a university later. It’s advertised as a cheaper path to a bachelor’s degree, an education hack in a world of ever-rising tuition costs. Yet the reality is rarely that simple. For some students, the transfer process becomes a maze so confusing it derails their college plans. Among nearly 1 million students who started at a community college in 2016, just one in seven earned a bachelor’s degree within six years, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse. One of the biggest obstacles is known as credit loss: when students take classes that never end up counting toward a degree. Sometimes it’s a result of poor advising. Without clear guidance from community colleges, students take courses they don’t need. Blame can also lie with four-year colleges, which have varying rules for evaluating transfer credits. Some are pickier than others. The outcome, however, is often the same. Students take longer to finish their degrees, costing more in tuition. For many, the extra work becomes too much to bear. Ultimately, roughly half of community college students drop out.
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LIFE
Dutch court bans sperm donor who fathered at least 550 children
A Dutch court on Friday banned a man from donating any more of his sperm after he fathered at least 550 children in the Netherlands and other countries and misled prospective parents about the number of offspring he helped to conceive. The court noted that under Dutch guidelines, sperm donors are allowed to produce a maximum of 25 children with 12 mothers and that the donor lied to prospective parents about his donation history. The court ordered him immediately to halt all donations and said he must pay 100,000 euros ($110,000) per case if he breaches the ban.
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RELIGION
Dust to Dust? New Mexicans fight to save old adobe churches
Ever since missionaries started building churches out of mud 400 years ago in what was the isolated frontier of the Spanish empire, tiny mountain communities like Cordova relied on their own resources to keep the faith going. Thousands of miles from religious and lay seats of power, everything from priests to sculptors to paint pigments was hard to come by. Villagers instituted lay church caretakers called “mayordomos,” and filled chapels with elaborate altarpieces made of local wood and varnished with pine sap. Today, threatened by depopulation, dwindling congregations and fading traditions, some of their descendants are fighting to save these historic adobe structures from literally crumbling back to the earth they were built with.
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HEALTH
Obesity Could Be Pharma’s Biggest Blockbuster Yet
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ozempic-wegovy-mounjaro-obesity-lilly-novo-nordisk-blockbuster-9b285303
As social-media hype around drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro explodes, patient testimonies have focused not only on the dramatic effect on their waistlines, but also on how quickly many seem to pack the pounds back on if they stop taking the injections. That may not be ideal for patients, but for Wall Street it is a feature rather than a bug. Nothing gets investors more hyped up than a product whose target market is massive—more than 40% of American adults are obese—and that also needs to be taken indefinitely.
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One-third of US nurses plan to quit profession, survey shows
Almost a third of the nurses in the United States are considering leaving their profession after the COVID-19 pandemic left them overwhelmed and fatigued, according to a survey. The survey of over 18,000 nurses, conducted by AMN Healthcare Services Inc (AMN.N) in January, showed on Monday that 30% of the participants are looking to quit their career, up 7 percentage points over 2021, when the pandemic-triggered wave of resignations began. The survey also showed that 36% of the nurses plan to continue working in the sector but may change workplaces.
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NOTE: But then there’s this:
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Nurses Flock Back to Hospitals After Leaving in the Pandemic
Many nurses who left hospital staff jobs during the pandemic out of exhaustion or for lucrative temporary jobs are coming back. Their return in recent months, spurred by falling pay from the temp agencies and new hospital perks, is helping ease shortages that have crowded emergency rooms and forced hospitals to turn away patient referrals.
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ART & MUSIC
Ed Sheeran Wins Copyright Case Over Marvin Gaye’s ‘Let’s Get It On’
A federal jury found on Thursday that the pop singer Ed Sheeran did not copy Marvin Gaye’s classic “Let’s Get It On” for his 2014 hit “Thinking Out Loud,” in the music industry’s highest-profile copyright case in years. Over two weeks in a downtown Manhattan courtroom, Mr. Sheeran, one of music’s biggest global hitmakers, testified — often with a guitar in hand — that “Thinking Out Loud” had been created independently one evening with his friend and longtime collaborator Amy Wadge. The song was inspired, he said, by the decades-long loves that he and Ms. Wadge observed among elders in their families. The two tracks share a similar syncopated chord pattern that the family of Ed Townsend, Gaye’s co-writer, which filed the suit, called the “heart” of “Let’s Get It On.” Mr. Sheeran and his lawyers never denied that the chords in the two songs are similar, but called them commonplace musical building blocks that have turned up in dozens of other songs. The jury, which deliberated for around three hours, found that Mr. Sheeran had created his song independently.
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Willie Nelson inhales the love at 90th birthday concert
“Are there any more real cowboys?” Neil Young sang Saturday night at the Hollywood Bowl on a rare evening when he was neither the headliner nor, at age 77, even close to the oldest artist on the bill. Providing an instant answer, Willie Nelson, wearing a cowboy hat and red-white-and-blue guitar strap, slowly strolled on to the stage on his 90th birthday, bringing the crowd of more than 17,000 to its feet.
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ENTERTAINMENT
Why over 11,000 TV and movie writers are striking and the shows affected
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/05/02/writers-guild-strike-television-shows-explained/
More than 11,000 members of the Writers Guild of America (WGA) went on strike against the television and movie studios after contract negotiations collapsed, triggering the first walkout in more than 15 years and halting production on some of the most popular shows in the United States. The Association of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), a trade association that works on behalf of Hollywood production companies, argued in a statement Tuesday that it offered “generous increases in compensation for writers.”
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Hollywood is losing the battle for China
In 1986 Régis Debray, a French philosopher, wrote that “there is more power in rock music, videos, blue jeans… than in the entire Red Army.” Western soft power, conveyed via cultural exports like music and cinema, is widely credited with helping to end the Soviet Union. Now that relations between China and America are eliciting cold-war comparisons, Chinese leaders are eager to displace Western influence. “Of all the nations in the world,” Xi Jinping, China’s president, has said, China “has the most reasons to be culturally confident. Soft power is hard to measure, but data on viewing preferences can reveal which way it is trending. And our analysis of film reviews on Douban, a social network, suggests that in China’s domestic market, the scales are tipping in Mr Xi’s favour. During the past decade, Western cinema’s share of viewership in China appears to have declined. Douban is a Chinese site where users can review films. Although China lets cinemas show just 34 foreign titles per year, users have rated thousands of foreign films, presumably using pirated versions. We downloaded scores and view counts for all 26,000 films listed on Douban produced between 2010 and 2022. Almost 10,000 of these are “Anglo” films (in English, from English-speaking countries), and 4,500 were produced in mainland China. The rest are largely European, Japanese and Korean. Over this period, Anglo films made up 43% of recorded views. China ranked second, at 36%, followed by Japan (6%) and South Korea (5%).
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Review: 'Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3' is everything you'd want in a wacky, wild summer ride
All signs point to summer 2023 kicking off big time with "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3," now in theaters and flying high on the inspired lunacy that radiates from these merry Marvel misfits who won our hearts back in 2014 by being such total losers, also-rans to the core.
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SPORTS
Baseball’s Pitch Clock Has Transformed Game Length—and Not Just in the Obvious Way
MLB’s faster pace has, understandably, made all the headlines. But it’s another effect of the new pitch clock—reduced variation in game length—that has truly changed the sport into something unseen in living memory.
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Cambodia is about to host arguably the world’s biggest sporting event
The South-East Asian (SEA) Games that begin in Cambodia on May 5th will be contested by just 11 countries. But with 581 medals at stake—nearly twice the number won at the last Olympics—they can claim to be the world’s biggest sporting event. Athletes will compete on the track, in the pool and in less traditional ways—including obstacle racing, jet-skiing and dance.
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Have a great weekend!
The Curator
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Two resources to help you be a more discerning reader:?
AllSides?-?https://www.allsides.com/unbiased-balanced-news??
Media Bias Chart?-?https://www.adfontesmedia.com/??
Caveat:?Even these resources/charts are biased.?Who says that the system they use to describe news sources is accurate??Still, hopefully you find them useful as a basic guide or for comparison.
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