Culture's Consequences on Pandemic Outcomes

In "Covid has no grand lesson for the world", the FT recently argued that the pandemic is blind to political and economic systems. It was long on reasoning and short on facts, as is normal in news media, but it is a testable hypothesis.

So I set out to test it from one angle. Does culture influence pandemic outcomes? (Culture in turn influences our choice of politics and economics.)

I used the Hofstede "Culture's Consequences" dataset covering 103 countries for 4 independent variables and covid deaths during 2020 as dependent variable, controlling for elderly share of population. Variables are not collinear, and the model is strongly homoscedastic. Fit is good.

A. Cultural drivers of pandemic outcomes

Two cultural variables were strongly influencing death outcomes: uncertainty avoidance (UA) and individualism (IND).

UA is "anxiety and distrust in the face of the unknown, and conversely, with a wish to have fixed habits and rituals, and to know the truth." The reason it is influencing outcomes negatively is probably that high UA cultures find it hard to adapt to new circumstances.

IND is "is the extent to which people feel independent, as opposed to being interdependent as members of larger wholes." High IND may negatively influence adherence to rules and recommendations.

A fuller description of all Hofstede's dimensions is found here.

B. Country differences for dominant drivers

How do countries differ along the IND and UA dimensions? The graph below shows the variability.

The further to the upper right corner a country is, the harder it is for it to deal with the pandemic. Many continental European countries are in this corner with high IND and UA and find it hard to battle covid, all other things equal.

On the other hand. many Asian and African countries are low on IND and UA. They find it easier to battle covid, all other things equal.

China is far into the lower left corner. IND is low so citizens listen to the authorities new rules. UA is low which suggests that it is easy to quickly take action.

The United States ,is on the other hand, the most individualistic country in the world. This gives it a difficult starting position for battling covid.

C. Country performance after culture is taken into account

How do countries perform after culture is taken into account? The graph below shows over- and under-performers.

If a country is on the diagonal it is performing as expected. The further off from the line, the more the country over- or under-performs.

The United States is a clear under-performer even after culture is taken into account. Italy, Spain and France behave as expected being close to the diagonal. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are over-performing.

Conclusion

1. Of the Hofstede cultural dimensions, individuality and uncertainty are highly significant for covid death outcomes, refuting the FT article's thesis.
2. Cultural factors that are impossible to change (and by extension political and economic systems) influence pandemic outcomes.
3. Countries, even given this, have highly variable outcomes explained by many other factors (not discussed here).