Crystal ball gazing for 2024
It is traditional, this time of year, to look into the future.? Here are my predictions for 2024 clinical trial delivery.
This is going to be the year of recovery.?
1.???? The number of new clinical trials starting will increase again (it went down this year, only the second time in my 34 year career that has happened)
2.???? Investigative sites will start to recover their capacity for trials by using support from Sponsors to access resources to make them both effective and more efficient.
3.???? The hype of DCT technology will be replaced by the reality of Patient Centric trial designs, using solutions that will be able to scale and demonstrate true value, mixing software and people to deliver services customised to each trial.
Why will these happen?
1.???? The industry is built on sound foundations and ultimately delivers real value to patients and society.
2.???? The pandemic and its aftermath, like a forest fire, have strengthened the sector overall.
3.???? R&D funding will recover as venture capital money flow returns – it’s been severely reduced for 18 months or more.
4.???? The cost of debt reduces as interest rates drop, adding to R&D funding capacity.
5.???? Enough time has passed for the IMP development plans to have been rewritten post pandemic and for the new trials to be designed and implementation start.
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How high will we climb?
An impossible question to answer.? There are still many competing factors pushing in different directions.? Sites will probably take longer to recover to 2019 levels due to overall health funding issues, total trial activity will take a couple of years to reach 2019 levels as the industry has finite capacity.? Technology will look for its next hype – think AI.
The important thing is, overall we will be climbing.? I am looking forward to 2024 with a positive outlook.? Life is always a journey, not a destination, and my step is going to be a bit lighter next year.? I hope yours will be too.?
Have a great 2024.
I write on anything I think is patient centric and interesting, based on my 18 years leading MRN, the oldest patient centric company in the world...(probably).
For more info on how to manage community based trials, go to the MRN web site
Executive Chairman, Medical Research Network
10 个月At the end of Q1, I thought I would assess my predictions in the cold light of day. Trial numbers - too early to tell yet. Wait 'till after Q2. Recovery in trial sites - maybe a little, although the state of western healthcare systems is so poor that overall progress to return trial capacity to pre-pandemic levels will be slow. However, the demand for site support services has increased. The over-hype of DCT digital solutions continues to punish some companies, and redundancies continue. Sadly I suspect this will take years to resolve. Demand for MRN patient centric solutions is certainly growing, implying clinical led services which include digital elements are the most appealing to our customers. ? Debt is indeed getting cheaper and biotech capital investment is at least showing some green shoots - but nothing very significant as yet. Portfolios of Pharma and Biotech cos are still lean but new program plans are now being published, which should lead to new clinical trial starts. This is behind the redundancies we are also seeing still coming through in some of the large pharma (although others have seemingly put that pain behind them). ? For MRN, 2024 is going to show growth. Not everyone will have such a positive journey.
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1 年In a similar way that the hype of AI is overshadowing the value of quality data; how do you use data to drive predictions? And quality data comes back to quality systems that deliver the data that drives Information; which informs real knowledge which underpins Wisdom - having the data that drives predictive activity. In humans, we call it gut feel and experience. In computers we might refer to to it as AI. But AI is a long way off from turning a Sows Ear into a Silk Purse.