Cryptoassets – A year in review... and a look ahead
It's that time of year again – when we reflect on the past year and try to predict the future. For those that know me well, this means reflecting on and trying to predict the future of the “cryptocurrency” market. I tend to refrain from using the term “cryptocurrency” and prefer to use “digital assets” or “cryptoassets” instead. To explain in the simplest terms, cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for secure, peer-to-peer financial transactions. Cryptoassets , on the other hand, are a broader category that includes cryptocurrencies and other assets built on top of blockchain technology. These assets can include things like tokens, which represent a unit of value that can be traded or used in a specific ecosystem, or decentralized applications (dApps), which are applications that are built on top of a blockchain. In short, all cryptocurrencies are cryptoassets, but not all cryptoassets are cryptocurrencies. I hope I didn’t lose you already but if I have bear with me!
If there's one thing that's certain, it's that the cryptoasset market has had quite a wild ride the past couple of years with 2022 being arguably the craziest. From the explosive growth of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and the rise of meme coins such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu to the continued dominance of Bitcoin, it has been chock full o’ surprises. We've also seen the continued rise and use of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, which have allowed investors and consumers to access a wider range of financial services without relying on traditional centralized financial institutions. And given recent events (think SBF and FTX ), it’s now urgent for us to gain regulatory clarity as it will only benefit us retail investors in the long term and accelerate mass adoption.
So, as I look back at the cryptoasset market in 2022, I will review what went well, what didn’t, and what might be in store for the years ahead. To be completely honest with you, things aren’t looking good from a macroeconomic standpoint. And it's likely not going to get much better in the short term. However, I expect the crypto market to recover throughout 2023 and we may see a bottom in the first or second quarter of 2023. This is when the FED is expected to stop raising interest rates and may be enough to stop crypto from crashing even further.
But first, let's get one thing out of the way: if you're looking for definitive answers, you're in the wrong place. This market is about as predictable as a room full of cats fighting for a single bag of hidden cat nip. But that's part of the fun, right? So, strap in and get ready for a bumpy ride as we explore the highs and lows of this exhilarating asset class.
The sudden rise (and fall) of NFTs
NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, were all the rage in 2021. The sentiment has since cooled off significantly given the current economic climate, but amidst the hype, NFT art was being compared to “Tulip Mania .” Now, I’m in no way saying NFTs will become worthless but gone are the days of selling meaningless digital “art collections” created for $50 on Fiverr.
For those unfamiliar with the concept, an NFT is a unique digital asset on a blockchain that represents ownership of a specific item or concept. Unlike cryptocurrencies, they cannot be traded or exchanged at equivalency. Think of it this way, fungibility refers to something replaceable or exchangeable like gold, fiat currencies, or oil for example. Non-fungibility is the exact opposite and is something unique or irreplaceable like a one-of-a-kind autographed jersey or rare coin. NFTs can range from collectible art, music albums, virtual real estate, and virtual fashion items to tweets (yes, people have actually paid real money for the privilege of owning a tweet).
NFTs have exploded in popularity these past couple of years, with some even selling for millions of dollars at auction – think Beeple. But the potential uses for NFTs go far beyond what most think. They will eventually be used in gaming, as personal IDs, and validate important documents like birth certificates, domain names, and much more. It's clear that NFTs are here to stay, and it will be interesting to see how they continue to evolve and be used in the future.
Here are a few bold predictions I have for 2023 and beyond:
As you can see, the potential uses for NFTs are endless, and we will likely see them being used in a wide range of industries beyond just retail, fashion, and gaming. I believe NFTs will eventually be used to represent all physical assets like real estate , fine art , and rare collectibles, allowing for more secure and transparent transactions. I also see NFTs disrupting the events industry, primarily through ticketing at first. NFT ticket holders won’t simply receive a ticket to an event anymore, but an interactive NFT that grants their entry into a show or festival. These NFT tickets will also grant the holder access to exclusive experiences unavailable to non-holders.
These are just a few of my bold predictions on where I see the narrative of NFTs moving into 2023 and beyond. It's important to note that the future of NFTs, like any emerging technology, is uncertain, and it's impossible to predict exactly how they will be used in the coming years. Take what I have to say with a bucket of salt, however, it's clear that NFTs have the potential to revolutionize and improve the way we interact with digital content and assets, and it will be interesting to see how they continue to evolve.
A quick note on the "useless monkey pictures," I expect blue chip NFT projects such as BAYC, Crypto Punks, Azuki, VeeFriends, Neo Tokyo Citizen, etc. to continue to dominate the space. These projects offer real utility and have built loyal, robust communities.
Return of the DeFi
It's safe to say that the DeFi space has been on a wild ride the past couple of years. Some even call it the wild west of crypto and I couldn’t agree more. With that being said, DeFi usage has still experienced significant growth. According to data from DeFi Llama, a DeFi TVL aggregator, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols reached all-time highs of over $300 billion in 2021. This marked a significant increase from the previous year. However, in 2022 the tables turned, and this dropped to around 96 billion in September – a loss of roughly 68 percent, according to data published by CryptoRank. TVL represents the overall value of funds locked into all DeFi projects and is an essential indicator of the overall growth rate in this industry.
Most people I come across write off DeFi as a very risky and speculative investment opportunity (and they aren’t wrong) but that can be said about any new technology experiencing rapid growth. What I like to point out are the strong underlying fundamentals that suggest DeFi is more than just hype. In fact, unique DeFi users have risen by 40% in 2022. And despite market conditions, DeFi users have gone from 4.7 million at the start of 2022 to more than 6.5 million, according to Grand View Research . To put this into perspective, DeFi users has increased by nearly 700% over a two-year period, with only 940,000 users at the start of 2021.?Data also shows that leading web3 wallet MetaMask posted considerable user gains.
Strong fundamentals and continued venture capital investment further supports the resilience of DeFi. In July, the crypto-driven investment firm Multicoin Capital launched a $430 million fund with DeFi being a big focus. Variant, a seed-stage fund focused on Web3, also announced a successful $450 million capital increase to fund, among others, "financial empowerment through DeFi." In summary, the DeFi industry continues to grow despite current prices.
What personally attracts me to DeFi is its potential to bring financial services to underserved or unbanked populations. Traditional financial systems often exclude people who live in countries with underdeveloped financial infrastructure or strict capital controls. DeFi has the potential to democratize access to financial services by using blockchain technology to create platforms that are accessible to anyone with an internet connection. I remember watching an AMA (ask me anything) with Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, and he explained how his Layer-1 blockchain protocol will eventually bank the unbanked . He explains how this technology could allow for peer-to-peer microloans which would allow individuals to lend and borrow money directly from one another, without the need for a traditional financial institution such as a bank.
As an example, borrowers and lenders can connect and negotiate terms such as the loan amount, interest rate, and repayment schedule. The loan is then recorded on the blockchain as a smart contract, which is a self-executing contract with the terms of the agreement between the borrower and lender written directly into lines of code. Code. Never. Lies. Once the loan is agreed upon and recorded on the blockchain, the lender can transfer the funds to the borrower's account. The borrower then repays the loan according to the terms of the agreement, and the repayment is also recorded on the blockchain. The use of smart contracts helps to ensure transparency and fairness in the loan process.
Despite continued VC investment and fundamentals being strong, the DeFi sector is still relatively unpredictable, and it's important for investors and users to exercise caution and conduct their own due diligence before diving in. There is likely to be more pain and potential pitfalls ahead so it’s best to avoid this altogether depending on your risk appetite. But, if you're feeling adventurous and want to be on the cutting-edge side of Fintech, DeFi might be worth checking out. Just be sure constantly keep up to date on industry news and the platforms you use or invest in.
Here are a few predictions I have for DeFi in the coming year and beyond. Disclaimer: It’s extremely difficult to give accurate predictions because DeFi innovates 50x faster than the real world. Regardless, here you are:
So, to sum it all up, I think there is real potential for DeFi to see increased adoption and integration with traditional financial institutions moving forward. However, for this to happen there needs to be regulatory clarity. Some experts predict that DeFi will eventually take over the legacy financial system and that traditional financial institutions will have no choice but to adapt and integrate DeFi services to remain relevant and competitive. However, if I’ve learned one thing having skin in this game since 2017, nothing is certain.
Memecoin mania
I’m going to keep this short, and not because I missed the boat on Dogecoin, but because something must be said. Investing in these “memecoins” is a form of gambling. If you’d like me to write another article providing gambling advice, I’d be happy to – but you might want to seek guidance from someone who wins!
The world of memecoins has been a wild yet inspiring ride in the past year or so. If you're not familiar with the term, they are digital assets that are inspired by internet memes and are often created for humorous or satirical purposes. Despite their often-lighthearted nature, memecoins can be highly volatile and risky. They have attracted significant attention in recent years and in 2021, we saw several memecoins surge in value, only to crash just as quickly. Perhaps the most famous example is Dogecoin , a cryptocurrency that was originally created as a joke but ended up reaching a mind-melting market capitalization of $88 billion dollars at its peak in 2021. Other memecoins, such as Shiba Inu and Safemoon also saw significant price surges but have since experienced dramatic price declines. Some made fortunes while most lost big time. Those that lost learned a valuable lesson… don’t invest in something because someone on Crypto Twitter said it’s “going to the moooooooon.”
As cycles tend to repeat themselves, they will likely gain attention again as we slowly crawl out of this bear market. As much as I hate to admit it, if Dogecoin has the support of Elon Musk , I wouldn’t count anything out. Do what you want with that information but, proceed with extreme caution and please do not get your investment advice from the subreddit /SatoshiStreetBets. To my die-hard, diamond-handed Redditors, I applaud you for your dedication.
2022 has been a down year all around so no cryptoasset, let alone memecoin, has really seen significant, sustainable gains. So, if you're feeling adventurous and want to join in on the meme coin craze, I wish you the best of luck. But I wouldn’t touch any with a 10-foot pole.
Bitcoin remains king… for now
Ah, good ol’ bitcoin dominance - a topic that's sure to get any bitcoin maximalists blood pumping. For those unfamiliar with the term, bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the overall cryptocurrency market that is represented by bitcoin. And boy, has bitcoin dominated the market over the years. In fact, bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in seven out of the last 10 years. And in the years it wasn’t the best performing, it was the worst performing according to Raoul Pal, global macro investor and co-founder and CEO of Real Vision. Since 2013, BTC is up 114,00 percent – that’s a strong enough argument to add a little to your portfolio, right? Not to mention only 21 million will ever be in existence.
In the early days of this new asset class, bitcoin was the only game in town. It quickly rose to prominence, built a cult-like following, and cemented its place as the dominant, and still in some eyes, the only player in the market. As other cryptoassets started to emerge and make breakthroughs such as Ethereum in 2017, however, bitcoin's dominance began to wane. Dropping from highs of 95 percent to lows of 43 percent. But bitcoin, being the resilient magic internet money that it is, always seems to bounce back. At the time of this writing, it currently sits around 42 percent and reached as low as 39 percent earlier in 2022.
Despite the increasing competition from newer and flashier cryptoassets, bitcoin has proven time and time again that it has staying power. Its decentralized nature, strong brand recognition, and growing mainstream, institution, and sovereign adoption all contribute to its continued dominance. And I expect at least one additional country will adopt bitcoin as legal tender in 2023.
As much as I hate to side with the Bitcoin maxis here, I must agree that it’s still “king” and it’s the best use case of crypto we have. Maxis, enjoy your moment for now but as we look to the future, it will be interesting to see how these trends continue to evolve and what new developments emerge in this market. I do believe next-gen players such as Ethereum, Cardano, Algorand, Cosmos ATOM, and others can give it a real run for its money. I also believe whoever solves the interoperability issue will take significant market share.
So, to sum it up I think bitcoin will continue its dominance, especially throughout 2023 as it has stood the test of time. Based on what we know about halving events and what history tells us from past cycles, it’s likely we will see all-time highs again from 2024 to early 2025. That’s certainly not investment advice but more of a reminder to myself of how awful my predictions are. It will also give me something to laugh at in a couple of years.
It’s also important to note that the cryptoasset market is still heavily tied to the stock market. Meaning the crypto market is dependent on how the traditional securities market performs – for now. So, if you are all in on crypto and despise the stock market, it’s important to pay attention and keep up to date on macroeconomic and stock market trends.
The metaverse meltdown – is it all hype?
Whether we like it or not, the world is moving digital and it’s advancing at a rapid rate. This includes the advancement of virtual reality (AR)/augmented reality (AR) and the emergence of immersive metaverses. According to leading analysts at McKinsey & Co., the metaverse is predicted to be worth $5 trillion in value by 2030. Now, it's anyone's guess as to what the metaverse will look and operate like in the future, but one thing is for sure: it's simply too big to ignore. Here's an infographic from Fortune Business Insights which shows it's projected exponential growth:
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We have just scraped the surface of this new emerging trend, but I expect this to advance rapidly. Its use case is expanding, and Gartner has even predicted that by 2027, 40 percent of large organizations worldwide will use a combination of Web3 and AR in metaverse-based projects aimed at increasing revenue. Gartner also predicts that 25 percent of people will spend at least one hour per day in the metaverse by 2026. That’s not too far away.
In the not-so-distant future, expect to start seeing virtual reality fashion shows featuring life-like avatars and attending corporate meetings and functions in a realistic, immersive digital world. We are sort of warming ourselves up to this now with Zoom and other video/virtual conferencing platforms. Have you been invited to or attended a virtual happy hour? Yikes… get a life. I’m kidding! But this is where we are headed.
Without going too far down this rabbit hole, the opportunities are endless in the metaverse, and I can't wait to see what strange and wonderful things the future holds. Here are a few thoughts I have:
CB/DC... a highway to hell
They are coming and you shouldn’t be too surprised. With uncertainty around stablecoins, confidence is very low. This has brought significant attention to the idea of implementing central bank-backed digital currencies, or CBDCs. A CBDC is a digital form of legal tender pegged to a country’s national currency. In other words, it’s under central banks' control like the US dollar. Countries like China (digital Yuan ) and the Bahamas (Sand Dollar) have already launched their own CBDCs. This may sound like a great thing but it’s a very touchy subject in the crypto world. Here’s my take:
Why I’d support the idea of CBDCs:
Why I’m not a fan of CBDCs:
It will be interesting to see how the narrative on CBDCs plays out in 2023. As most CBDC models are new, there has been little to no success in terms of adoption and ease of use. And I see a real challenge in trying to convince retail customers, happy with existing payment solutions, to convert to using CBDCs. Only time will tell, I guess.
Closing thoughts
Well, that about wraps it up! For once, my oh-so-very patient girlfriend didn’t have to sit through another one of my unsolicited crypto rants – although I’ll probably force her to read this anyway. For those of you that made it through to the end, I thank you from the bottom of my heart. I’m known to be more of a yapper and less of a writer, but I’ve found a real sense of bliss in putting my thoughts to paper, or should I say screen, so one of my personal goals in 2023 is to write more.
Whether you support or despise this emerging asset class, the reality is that it has seen tremendous growth and innovation in recent years, and there is no shortage of exciting trends and narratives to follow to further increase its growth. From the rise of non-fungible tokens and the resurgence of decentralized finance to the ongoing debates about Bitcoin's dominant status and the emergence of memecoins, there is no shortage of drama and intrigue in the world of crypto. And as the metaverse continues to evolve, it is likely that we will see even more interesting and mind-blowing developments.
As always, it is important to approach any investment with caution and to do your own research before making any financial decision. And with this market, it’s even more crucial you conduct the proper due diligence and take the necessary precautions to minimize your risk. But with that said, there is no denying the potential for this technology to revolutionize the way we think about money and value. So, whether you're a seasoned crypto pro with multiple cycles under your belt or a newcomer to the world of digital assets, there is no better time than now to dive in and see what the future holds for this exciting and constantly evolving market. To the builders, keep building; to the investors and advocates, keep learning; and to the ones on the sidelines, keep an open mind.
P.S. I couldn’t help but to include a TL;DR version on the top trends/narratives I think we will see moving into 2023 and beyond, enjoy:
2023 Trends/Narratives – TL;DR version:
Useful links:
CryptoPotato: https://cryptopotato.com/defi-tvl-smashes-past-236b-biggest-contributors-include-ethereum-fantom-solana/
McKinsey & Company: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-sales/our-insights/value-creation-in-the-metaverse
If you’re interested in Blockchain, Crypto, NFTs, Metaverse, and DeFi, don’t forget to check out my highly recommended resources below:
Best crypto tax software – Koinly (my pick), CoinLedger or Accointing
Popular crypto trading bots – 3Commas and Cryptohopper
My favorite FREE crypto course – https://www.coursera.org/learn/wharton-cryptocurrency-blockchain-introduction-digital-currency#syllabus
My favorite FREE blockchain video course – https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUl4u3cNGP63UUkfL0onkxF6MYgVa04Fn
DeFi resources – 101 Blockchains DeFi course: https://101blockchains.com/course/defi-course/ ; https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/
Finematics guide to DeFi: https://finematics.com/guide-to-decentralized-finance/ ?