Crypto: Looking for a reason for optimism

Bitcoin has been flat for two weeks now, while other markets are rattling – gold is hitting new highs, and the stock market is growing – but a return to the sacred $100K zone is still in doubt.

BTC has been trying to grow for three days already: it has shown +1.33% over the day and has strengthened by 1.30% over the week, but the main sponsor of such dynamics is the depreciating dollar. Some large investors prefer not to see concerns about Trump's tariff policy, although they are still concerned about the Fed's interest rate forecast.

While spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant investment, there have been net outflows recently, with on-chain data suggesting a cooling of speculative appetite.

Recall: crypto assets are traditionally traded in pairs to the dollar (or via USD-stablecoins), and the cheaper the dollar is in the FX market, the more expensive the second asset in the crypto pair must be, even if its intrinsic “value” doesn't change. So crypto still has no clear direction and is moving flat, but rising slightly to match its USD denomination.

As of the morning of February 21, the capitalization of the digital asset sector was $3.24 trillion, of which BTC holds 60.2% and ETH 10.3%. Most altcoins also rose slightly, but there is no impetus for a solid rally yet: Ether added 1.5%, while XRP rose by 1%, Solana – by 2.5%, Cardano – by 1.8%, and Polygon – by 2.2%.

Fundamental support for BTC remains the possibility of creating a strategic crypto reserve in the United States.

Important resistance for BTC is at $98400, the next resistance is at $99700, and there is $100000 nearby.

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