Crypto Has Already Won
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There is nothing left to say about Tuesday’s election.
My cheat sheet—if you’ve missed my previous commentary —is as follows:
The only “bad” outcome for crypto is a Democratic sweep, as it would embolden the fringe element of the Democratic Party that is overtly hostile to crypto. But even in that scenario, I’d buy the dip.
Because if there’s one thing the past four years has taught me, it’s this: Washington can’t stop crypto. It can alter the trajectory. It can speed things up or slow things down. It can bring more confusion or new clarity.
But it can’t stop it.
The State of Crypto: November 2020 vs. November 2024
One of the few things I like about presidential elections is that they give you a chance to look back and see how things have gone over the past four years.
Are things better or worse than the last time we went to the polls?
When you do that in crypto, the results are overwhelming. Despite a combative regulatory environment—think Operation Choke Point 2.0 , countless SEC lawsuits, and a host of contradictory or ambiguous statements —the progress we’ve made is amazing.
Choose any statistic you want.
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Crypto's Progress: 2020 vs. 2024
We focus so much in crypto on the moment-by-moment movement of prices that we often lose sight of the long-term trends. The presidential election provides a nice opportunity to step back and see how far we’ve come.
Will These Trends Continue?
The question to ask yourself as you look at the above statistics is whether they will continue. From my seat, the answer is a resounding yes.
Our view is that regardless of who wins on Tuesday:
Make no mistake: What happens in Tuesday’s election matters, particularly in the short term. But as I see it, over the long term Tuesday will prove to be something between a speed bump and a wind gust. Neither is going to stop this train.
Risks and Important Information
No Advice on Investment; Risk of Loss: Prior to making any investment decision, each investor must undertake its own independent examination and investigation, including the merits and risks involved in an investment, and must base its investment decision—including a determination whether the investment would be a suitable investment for the investor—on such examination and investigation.
Crypto assets are digital representations of value that function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but they do not have legal tender status. Crypto assets are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are not currently backed nor supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies, stocks, or bonds.
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Crypto asset trading requires knowledge of crypto asset markets. In attempting to profit through crypto asset trading, you must compete with traders worldwide. You should have appropriate knowledge and experience before engaging in substantial crypto asset trading. Crypto asset trading can lead to large and immediate financial losses. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position quickly at a reasonable price.
The opinions expressed represent an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results, and are subject to further discussion, completion and amendment. The information herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. You should consult your accounting, legal, tax or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.