Crypto Has Already Won

Crypto Has Already Won

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By Matthew Hougan


Join Bitwise’s senior leaders on November 6 at 1pm ET for a roundtable discussion covering crypto after the election. Sign up here .


There is nothing left to say about Tuesday’s election.

My cheat sheet—if you’ve missed my previous commentary —is as follows:

  • Short-term, a Trump victory is better than a Harris victory.?
  • Long-term, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will thrive regardless of who wins.
  • Altcoins have more regulatory risk in a Harris regime than a Trump regime.

The only “bad” outcome for crypto is a Democratic sweep, as it would embolden the fringe element of the Democratic Party that is overtly hostile to crypto. But even in that scenario, I’d buy the dip.

Because if there’s one thing the past four years has taught me, it’s this: Washington can’t stop crypto. It can alter the trajectory. It can speed things up or slow things down. It can bring more confusion or new clarity.

But it can’t stop it.


The State of Crypto: November 2020 vs. November 2024

One of the few things I like about presidential elections is that they give you a chance to look back and see how things have gone over the past four years.

Are things better or worse than the last time we went to the polls?

When you do that in crypto, the results are overwhelming. Despite a combative regulatory environment—think Operation Choke Point 2.0 , countless SEC lawsuits, and a host of contradictory or ambiguous statements —the progress we’ve made is amazing.

Choose any statistic you want.


Crypto's Progress: 2020 vs. 2024

Sources: Price data for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana from Bitwise Asset Management as of 11/2/20 and 11/2/24. CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest, DEX Volume, and Monthly Transactions (Bitcoin Network) from The Block, using full-month values for October 2020 and October 2024. Crypto Daily Exchange Volume (7DMA) from The Block as of 11/6/20 and 11/3/24. Bitcoin Spot ETF AUM and Stablecoin AUM from The Block as of 11/2/20 and 11/2/24. DeFi TVL from The Block as of 11/4/20 and 11/2/24. Monthly Transactions (Ethereum + Layer 2s) from The Block and GrowThePie as of October 2020 and October 2024. Top 20 Asset Managers with Tokenized Funds from RWA.XYZ as of 11/2/24. All other data from Bitwise Asset Management as of 11/4/24.


We focus so much in crypto on the moment-by-moment movement of prices that we often lose sight of the long-term trends. The presidential election provides a nice opportunity to step back and see how far we’ve come.


Will These Trends Continue?

The question to ask yourself as you look at the above statistics is whether they will continue. From my seat, the answer is a resounding yes.

Our view is that regardless of who wins on Tuesday:

  • Spot crypto ETF inflows will continue
  • Stablecoins will continue to grow rapidly
  • Institutions will continue to “get off zero” and add allocations to crypto
  • Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real-world assets
  • Blockchains will continue to get faster and cheaper
  • Real-world applications like Polymarket will continue to break through and gain mainstream adoption

Make no mistake: What happens in Tuesday’s election matters, particularly in the short term. But as I see it, over the long term Tuesday will prove to be something between a speed bump and a wind gust. Neither is going to stop this train.


Risks and Important Information

No Advice on Investment; Risk of Loss: Prior to making any investment decision, each investor must undertake its own independent examination and investigation, including the merits and risks involved in an investment, and must base its investment decision—including a determination whether the investment would be a suitable investment for the investor—on such examination and investigation.

Crypto assets are digital representations of value that function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but they do not have legal tender status. Crypto assets are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are not currently backed nor supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies, stocks, or bonds.

Trading in crypto assets comes with significant risks, including volatile market price swings or flash crashes, market manipulation, and cybersecurity risks and risk of losing principal or all of your investment. In addition, crypto asset markets and exchanges are not regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing.

Crypto asset trading requires knowledge of crypto asset markets. In attempting to profit through crypto asset trading, you must compete with traders worldwide. You should have appropriate knowledge and experience before engaging in substantial crypto asset trading. Crypto asset trading can lead to large and immediate financial losses. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position quickly at a reasonable price.

The opinions expressed represent an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results, and are subject to further discussion, completion and amendment. The information herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. You should consult your accounting, legal, tax or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.


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