Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 9/9/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is Trading 20-50?cents higher…The US Dollar Index is higher (101.63) and the Dow Jones Futures are 250-300?pts higher. Crude futures trying to reverse some of the $9/bbl losses from the last five trading sessions as quantitative fund liquidation on weaker Chinese demand and weaker (chart) technical signals most likely has overexaggerated the downside movement. Seasonally weaker demand for fuels is seen thru most of September, so weaker prices are justified, however, a $9/bbl sell-off in less than a week is likely more about liquidation. There were some geopolitical escalations over the weekend with Russia?attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure with Ukraine countering, firing on a Russian crude oil port (damage is thought to be minimal.) We also have two major storms (hurricanes) forming in the Gulf of Mexico that will be watched. ?Technically WTI Oct crude remains in a bearish structure with major support at last week's low (67.17). Resistance will be the 71.46?area. Only a close back above 73.68?negates the bearish structure.

?Early Nat Gas is Trading 3-6 cents lower…Milder weather should keep plenty of near-term supply which?keeps the pressure on prices, however, colder than normal weather is expected in Europe along with two major storms now in the Atlantic which is getting traders attention. While a Gulf storm is usually bullish for Nat Gas, it can also back up LNG supply, which can be?more of a negative, especially if offshore supply is not interrupted. Technically Oct NG?futures remain in a negative structure, however testing major resistance at the 50 day mov avg (2.284). A close above turns the near term rend to bullish and targets the 2.421 area. A possible double bottom (seen at major market lows) could be in place.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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