Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 9/13/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is Trading 50-1.00 higher… The US Dollar Index is lower (101.04), and the Dow Jones Futures are 80-120?pts higher. Crude continuing to make a comeback on news Libya’s crude exports remain light in the fact that peace talks have failed so far to resolve internal controls of the central banking system. That along with Russian crude exports dropping and many Gulf of Mexico platforms may wait until this weekend to re-start (at one time over 40% of production was shut in). Keep in mind the Atlantic/ Caribbean remains very active with more storms on the horizon that need to be monitored. Again, futures remain in a corrective mode, however, global demand will be the key driver going forward, and we will need to see better numbers coming out of Asia for WTI prices to return to the mid $70's.??Technically WTI Oct crude remains in a bearish structure with major support at the 65.27 area. Near term resistance will be the 71.46 area. Only a close back above 74.96 negates the bearish structure.

?Early Nat Gas is trading 2-5 cents higher…. The Northeast temp forecast is turning warmer, and while in Mid-September its less of a factor, but still more power burn should be noted as well as some heating demand in the northwest. The EIA storage number from yesterday showed a 40 BCF injection well below the 50 number, which now places storage at 9.6% above the five-year average. Most seasoned traders would like to see storage within 5% of the five-year average by October to believe in a true possibly bullish set up. We are however moving in the right direction. European Nat Gas prices have also been trending higher as more demand competition is coming to the LNG space (Egypt making some higher cash LNG bids). US demand also remains strong with current demand running 2.7% above last year. Technically Oct Nat Gas has moved to a bullish structure with major resistance at the 2.421 area, a close above targets the 2.55-2.60 area. Major support rests back at the 50-day mov avg (2.260).

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!?

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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