Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 8/19/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is trading steady/mixed…The US Dollar Index is lower (102.15) and the Dow Jones futures are steady/higher. Crude trading back in a sideways manner as elevated Geopolitical tensions remain a bullish force (ceasefire talks in Gaza have stalled) versus weakening demand signals in Asia (manufacturing and housing both printing lower numbers). Seasonally crude prices also trend lower thru August as travel demand continues to lag. Sept WTI futures expire tomorrow so look for a continued choppy trade. Technically WTI Oct futures have moved to a bearish structure back below both the 50- & 200-day mov average which should keep the sellers active.?Trend line support rests at the 74.54 area. Near term resistance is the 75.92 area.

Early Nat Gas is trading 2-6?cents higher…Warmer temps moving back into the longer-range forecast are keeping a bid under Nat Gas. The actual draw to Nat Gas inventories last week (first since 2016) has many traders believing a major price low is in, however, for prices to move much higher we will need to continue to whittle away at the 13% premium we have to storage vs the 5 yr seasonal average. Technically Sept Nat Gas remains in a bearish structure with near term support at the 2.091 area, a move below would target the 2.00 area. Trend line resistance sets at the 2.261 area. Only a close back above 2.399 negates the negative structure.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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