Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 7/22/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is trading 50-80 cents lower…The US Dollar Index is lower (104.02) and the Dow Jones futures are 80-100 pts higher. Crude under pressure this AM as profit taking continues with a possible “double top” in place along with weaker economic news coming from China with another round of rate cuts by China's central bank. WTI Sept futures also breaching the 50-day mov avg (78.65) has triggered some “sell stops” as well. President Joe Biden deciding not to run for a new term has many analysts looking at a Trump administration ramping up US production which could be a longer term price negative to crude. Also, news that an Israel/Hamas cease fire is looking more probable. On a positive note, the US rig count has dropped to a 3 year low. The technical weakness could keep the pressure on prices near term along with seasonally lower prices into late July that normally occur. September WTI crude has moved to a bearish structure and should see support at the 76.95 area. Resistance will be the 50 day mov avg.

Early Nat Gas is Trading 7-9 cents higher …Continued elevated temps as well as expectations that Freeport TX could begin moving LNG this week with most repairs in place. While the Nat Gas rig count did rise by three it’s still 53 rigs below last year. While storage remains elevated, hedge funds are holding heavy short positions which can create knee jerk type short covering rallies especially when seasonally (5 yr avg) prices more times than not trend higher into late August (see historical pricing patterns below). Technically Sept NG remains in a bearish structure with major support at the 2.055 area. Trend line resistance sets at the 2.349 area. Only a close back above 2.656 negates the bearish structure.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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