Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 7/16/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex crude is trading 1.00-1.30 lower…The US Dollar Index is higher (104.24) and the Dow Jones futures are 150-175 pts higher. ?Seasonal selling pressure continues as crude futures seasonally reach a high near Mid July. Weaker economic data continues to flow from China as continued Gov’t support programs have been disappointing with many of China’s refineries cutting back on weaker fuel demand (refinery output has fallen 3.7% vs year ago). Peace talks are also continuing in Gaza and even Ukrainian strikes against Russia have been absent this week. Technically WTI Aug crude futures remain in a bullish structure, however testing a critical support area at the 80.18 area, a breach below targets the 50-day mov avg (79.07). Trend line resistance sets at the 83.60 area. A possible spread “double top” could be in play.

Early Nat Gas is Trading steady/higher…more of a dead cat bounce after punching out new contract lows yesterday as cooling temperatures in the forecast move into the countries Mid-section. Freeport TX LNG facility being shut down longer than expected added to the negative price action. They are, however, supposed to bring on 3 trains today, so we will see if that actually happens. Current storage is also running 18.7% above the 5-year average and nearly 10% above last year. Hotter weather forecasts and LNG export facilities running at full capacity will be needed to lift prices from here. Most veteran traders are still in the camp of bear spreads (selling the front end of the curve and buying the back months). Technically Aug NG remains in a bearish structure with near term support at the 2.147?area, then 1.994. Near term resistance will be the 2.552 area. Futures are nearing an “oversold” condition.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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