Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 7/15/24

Early Nymex crude is trading steady/mixed…The US Dollar Index is higher (104.18) and the Dow Jones futures are 180-200 pts higher. Slower growth from China (GDP growing at 4.7% below the expectation of 5.3%) and continued peace talks with Hamas is keeping crude in a choppy trade as elevated US travel demand is trying to counter. The assassination attempt on Presidential candidate Mr. Trump is thought to help his election in early polls which is pushing equity markets higher, however, also pushing Treasury yields higher, again keeping crude in a nervous choppy trade. Technically Aug WTI crude remains in a bullish structure with major support at the 81.54-80.18 area. Major resistance will be near the possible “double top” area (84.41-85.27).

Early Nat Gas is trading 8-11 cents lower…Cooling trend forecasted to the southern plains migrating east is expected to place a slack in demand. That along with Freeport TX?cancelling more loadings as damage assessments continues and power not being restored as quickly as anticipated. US production has also increased approx. 1.5 BCF/day this past week. ?News agencies reporting that current flows to the Freeport facility are nearly zero. Again, with cooling weather and LNG exports interrupted, the path of least resistance for NG prices is lower. Technically the bearish trend continues testing contract lows this morning at 2.207 vs August futures. Trend line resistance sets at the 2.556 area, only a close back above 2.708 negates the negative structure. Futures are nearing an “oversold” condition with an upside correction due.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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